Carolina is No. 1 in our first weekly power rankings. The October 12 edition froze with 86 games played, and our season model has the Hurricanes finishing on 110.3 points, 3.6 clear of anyone else, with a 90.1% chance of making the playoffs. They were second in the preseason order, which uses last season’s strength alone.
Why Carolina is first
The record is good: 5-1-1, five straight wins and a +10 goal differential. The ranking rests on the shots, though. Carolina has taken 63.6% of the expected goals in its games, tied with Vegas for the best shot share in the league, and the model rates teams on that share, starting from last season and leaning more on this one with every game played. Sebastian Aho has 11 points in seven games, and the penalty kill has stopped 92.9% of the power plays against it. The soft spot is in net, an .887 team save percentage.
Seven games is a small sample, and the range says so: the middle 80% of simulated seasons put Carolina between 94 and 126 points.
Vegas is second at 106.7 points, up from fifth in the preseason order, with Jack Eichel on 12 points in six games. Colorado, first before a puck was dropped, is third at 104.9 after a 3-2-0 start.
Risers and fallers
The Rangers made the biggest move, from 27th in the preseason order to 12th. They are 5-2-0 with a +10 goal differential, a 54.5% shot share and a .933 team save percentage, and Alexis Lafrenière has five goals. That lifts them to 95.6 projected points and a 55.9% chance of the playoffs. Anaheim moved up seven places to eighth, 4-1-0 and projected for 98.4 points, with seven assists in five games from Leo Carlsson.
Philadelphia fell furthest, from 12th to 30th. The Flyers are 0-5-2, have been outscored 28-8, and their 32.9% shot share is the lowest in the league. The model now has them at 81.3 points and a 15.9% playoff chance. Dallas dropped from seventh to 13th after a 2-2-1 start and a 7.7% power play.
One record flatters, one undersells
San Jose is 3-2-0, on a 35.4% shot share, the second lowest in the league after Philadelphia. The -4 goal differential already points the same way. Macklin Celebrini has six points in three games, but the model has the Sharks 28th, projected for 84.3 points.
Buffalo is the opposite case. The Sabres are 2-3-0 and minus eight, yet their 55.3% shot share is the seventh best in the league. The difference is in goal and on the penalty kill: an .829 team save percentage, second lowest after Calgary, and a 62.5% kill. The model ranks them 17th at 93.2 projected points, right on the playoff line.
The playoff line
On projected points, Carolina, New Jersey and Pittsburgh would take the Metropolitan places and Tampa Bay, Ottawa and Florida the Atlantic. The Rangers and Columbus (93.6) hold the wild cards. Buffalo is 0.4 points behind Columbus, and Washington (92.2), Montreal (91.8) and Detroit (91.6) are within two points of the last spot. Columbus has a 49.7% chance of making it, Buffalo 47.5%.
In the West, Vegas, Edmonton and Anaheim lead the Pacific, and Colorado, Utah and Minnesota the Central. Dallas (95.1) and St. Louis (94.0) hold the wild cards. Los Angeles is first out at 93.0 and still has a 50.7% playoff chance after an 0-2-2 start, because its shot share is close to even at 49.8%.
Where the model and the market disagree
The model’s Stanley Cup favorite is Carolina at 11.7%, against 9.5% in the market. The market’s favorite is Colorado at 12.5%, where the model has 9.0%. The widest gap is Florida, 10.0% in the market against 2.8% in the model, and Theo Marsh has the full story in Stanley Cup odds: market vs model. The biggest gap the other way is Ottawa, 5.7% in the model and 1.5% in the market. Every team’s gap is on the market vs model page. A gap is a disagreement, not a tip.
A new edition freezes every Monday morning, once the weekend’s games are final. The live power rankings move with every result in between, and the October 19 column is the next edition.
