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‹FRI OCT 23›
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‹FRIOCT 23›
Montréal at Chicago, 8:00 PM ET:
8:00 PM
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Tampa Bay at Colorado, 9:00 PM ET:
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Power rankings · edition 2 · Oct 19, 2026

NHL power rankings

All 32 teams ranked by our model, set every Monday morning once the weekend's games are final: points already banked plus the rest of the season played out 4,000 times from shot quality. This edition counts 136 games, and the Now line under each team follows every final since.

1Carolina Hurricanes7-2-1 · 15 pts
Projected
111 pts
Playoffs
93%
Strength
55.0
Cup price
10%
2Colorado Avalanche5-2-1 · 11 pts · Up 1
Projected
107 pts
Playoffs
85%
Strength
53.8
Cup price
11%
3Vegas Golden Knights8-2-0 · 16 pts · Down 1
Projected
106 pts
Playoffs
88%
Strength
52.9
Cup price
6.5%
Biggest riserBostonUp 8 places, 24th to 16th, against the Oct 12 editionTeam page →Biggest fallerPittsburghDown 8 places, 11th to 19th, against the Oct 12 editionTeam page →Best shot shareCarolina 61.6%Share of expected goals this season, 1st in the rankingsShot data →Results ahead of the shotsBoston7-2-0 on a 48.6% shot shareGoals and luck →
Edition 2

Carolina is first, Vancouver last

Ranked by projected points; the move is against the Oct 12 edition. The Cup price is the cross-venue prediction-market average, next to our own numbers.

#MoveTeamRecordProj. ptsPlayoffsStrengthShot shareDiffPPPKCup priceSince Oct 12
1UnchangedCarolina Hurricanes7-2-111193%55.061.6%+1225.6%91.4%10%2-1-0 since Oct 12, goals 9-7
2Up 1Colorado AvalancheNow 4th Down 25-2-110785%53.857.2%+1220.7%85.0%11%2-1-1 since Oct 12, goals 12-10
3Down 1Vegas Golden KnightsNow 2nd Up 18-2-010688%52.957.0%+1827.8%73.9%6.5%3-0-0 since Oct 12, goals 17-6
4UnchangedTampa Bay LightningNow 3rd Up 16-2-010478%53.158.4%+410.7%75.0%6.5%2-1-0 since Oct 12, goals 9-9
5Up 1Utah Mammoth6-3-010378%52.759.3%+635.3%73.3%4.0%3-1-0 since Oct 12, goals 16-16
6Up 3Minnesota WildNow 7th Down 16-2-110276%52.057.0%+732.1%89.3%6.5%2-1-0 since Oct 12, goals 9-10
7Down 2Edmonton OilersNow 6th Up 16-1-110175%51.553.5%+1325.0%70.8%8.0%2-1-0 since Oct 12, goals 12-7
8Down 1Ottawa Senators6-3-010069%52.050.7%+112.8%79.4%2.5%1-2-0 since Oct 12, goals 5-11
9Up 1New Jersey Devils4-4-09865%51.957.0%−220.7%69.6%3.5%2-1-0 since Oct 12, goals 14-9
10Up 4Florida PanthersNow 11th Down 15-2-29863%51.354.8%+520.9%80.6%10%3-0-0 since Oct 12, goals 18-8
11Up 2Dallas StarsNow 10th Up 14-3-19658%51.051.8%+715.0%89.3%4.5%2-1-0 since Oct 12, goals 9-5
12UnchangedNew York Rangers6-3-19554%49.452.1%+620.0%93.5%1.5%2-1-1 since Oct 12, goals 10-11
13Down 5Anaheim DucksNow 25th Down 124-3-09557%49.948.8%+126.9%80.0%2.5%0-3-0 since Oct 12, goals 6-13
14Up 7Montréal CanadiensNow 15th Down 14-3-19450%49.949.9%−314.8%82.4%4.5%2-1-0 since Oct 12, goals 12-11
15Up 2Buffalo SabresNow 18th Down 34-3-29447%50.350.8%−79.1%64.5%2.5%1-0-2 since Oct 12, goals 11-12
16Up 8Boston BruinsNow 14th Up 27-2-09347%48.848.6%+1525.0%81.3%3.5%3-0-0 since Oct 12, goals 14-6
17Down 2St. Louis BluesNow 13th Up 43-4-19245%49.749.8%−119.0%84.0%1.5%1-2-0 since Oct 12, goals 13-12
18Up 1Winnipeg JetsNow 23rd Down 54-2-29245%49.248.2%−130.0%78.9%0.5%1-1-1 since Oct 12, goals 10-9
19Down 8Pittsburgh PenguinsNow 20th Down 13-5-19244%50.349.9%−417.9%83.3%1.5%0-4-0 since Oct 12, goals 11-21
20Up 2Detroit Red WingsNow 16th Up 43-3-29242%49.748.3%−417.9%69.0%0.5%2-0-1 since Oct 12, goals 10-9
21Down 3Los Angeles KingsNow 17th Up 40-4-29145%50.450.8%−1314.3%61.9%2.5%0-2-0 since Oct 12, goals 2-8
22Down 2Washington Capitals5-3-09142%48.845.1%+419.0%82.1%5.5%2-1-0 since Oct 12, goals 11-10
23Down 7Columbus Blue JacketsNow 26th Down 33-4-09039%49.145.0%−511.8%68.0%1.5%1-2-0 since Oct 12, goals 5-9
24Up 1Nashville Predators3-2-38936%48.948.2%−129.6%85.2%0.5%1-1-1 since Oct 12, goals 9-10
25Up 1New York IslandersNow 19th Up 64-3-18933%48.344.7%+616.7%86.7%1.5%2-0-1 since Oct 12, goals 8-5
26Down 3Seattle KrakenNow 21st Up 55-3-18835%47.946.5%+420.7%76.0%0.5%1-1-1 since Oct 12, goals 9-14
27Up 1San Jose SharksNow 28th Down 14-3-18629%47.542.5%−723.1%80.8%3.5%1-2-1 since Oct 12, goals 10-15
28Down 1Toronto Maple LeafsNow 27th Up 13-4-28521%47.847.1%−326.7%96.4%2.5%1-2-1 since Oct 12, goals 12-15
29UnchangedCalgary Flames2-6-08425%48.146.9%−2021.1%81.5%0.5%2-1-0 since Oct 12, goals 9-10
30UnchangedPhiladelphia Flyers1-6-38114%47.036.6%−2010.3%83.8%0.5%2-1-1 since Oct 12, goals 9-8
31Up 1Chicago Blackhawks3-6-08114%46.241.8%−1512.5%74.1%0.5%2-1-0 since Oct 12, goals 9-10
32Down 1Vancouver Canucks2-7-17710%45.439.3%−1520.0%58.1%0.5%0-2-1 since Oct 12, goals 6-10

Model run Oct 18, 11:07 PM ET. Strength: 50 is an average team. Projected points: tap or hover for the range that 80% of simulated seasons end in.

Results and shot quality

Who is winning, and who is winning the shots

Points percentage across, share of expected goals up. The shaded corner is above average on both. Teams far to the right of where their shots put them tend to come back, and the model ranks them with that in mind.

0%34%25%42%50%50%75%58%100%66%POINTS %SHOT SHARE0%34%25%42%50%50%75%58%100%66%POINTS %SHOT SHARE

Early in the season a team has played only a handful of games, so a dot can move a long way in a night.

The weekly column

AnalysisPower rankings: Carolina stays No. 1, Boston climbs eight placesOct 19 · 4 minAnalysisPower rankings: Carolina starts at No. 1, projected for 110 pointsOct 12 · 4 min
About this page

How the power rankings work

The rank
Each team's projected points for the full 84-game season: the points it has already, plus the rest of its schedule played out 4,000 times by our season model. Ties go to the stronger team.
Strength
The model's rating: a team's share of expected goals, this season on top of last season counted as 30 games and pulled most of the way back to average, because last season says less about this one than it seems. 50 is an average team; every point above 50 is a real edge over a season. Each simulated season also varies every team's strength a little, so the chances allow for how much is still unknown.
Shot share
This season only: the share of expected goals in a team's games, from the quality and location of every unblocked shot. Above 50% means it is creating more than it allows.
Playoffs and the Cup
The share of simulated seasons in which the team makes the playoffs or wins the Stanley Cup. The Cup price next to it is what the prediction markets charge, which is a different question: a gap is a disagreement, not a tip.
When it changes
A new edition is set every Monday morning, once the weekend's games are final, and compared with the one before. Between editions the Now line shows where a team would rank after the latest results.
Early in the season
Until about 30 games, last season still carries much of the weight, so a hot start moves a team less than the standings do. That is deliberate: a few games say little about a team.
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