NHL expected goals leaders
Individual expected goals (ixG): every unblocked attempt weighed by its chance of scoring from that spot, shot type and strength, against the goals actually scored.
How to read it
Expected goals separate getting chances from finishing them. A player with high ixG and few goals is getting to the right places and has been unlucky or cold; one with many more goals than ixG is either an elite shooter or running hot. ixG per 60 minutes is the fairest comparison between players with different roles.
- GP
- Games played.
- G
- Goals.
- ixG
- Individual expected goals: the chance of scoring of every unblocked attempt he took (location, shot type, strength, rebounds), added up.
- G−xG
- Goals minus ixG: finishing. Above zero, he scores more than his chances predict. Elite shooters stay above zero year after year; for most players it drifts back towards zero.
- Att
- Unblocked shot attempts: shots on goal, goals and misses (blocked attempts are left out because their location is where they were blocked).
- xG/Att
- Expected goals per attempt: the average quality of his chances. A higher number means more shots from the slot and the crease.
- ixG/60
- Individual expected goals per 60 minutes on the ice, so players with different ice time can be compared.
- S%
- Shooting percentage.
How expected goals are built, and how well the model predicts, is on the methodology page.
What expected goals measure
Expected goals (xG) give every unblocked shot attempt a probability of scoring, from where it was taken, the shot type and what happened just before it. A shot from the slot after a pass across the ice is worth far more than a wrist shot from the point. Add them up and you get the goals a player’s chances would usually produce.
Goals minus expected goals is finishing. A player well above his expected goals is converting more than his chances suggest, which some elite shooters do year after year and most players do for a few weeks. Over a season, expected goals predict future scoring better than goals do. How the model works.
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