Market vs model

The widest gap: Pittsburgh, make the playoffs

Market price minus our model's chance, biggest gaps first. Right of centre the market is more optimistic than the model, left of centre less. A gap is a disagreement, not a tip.

TeamModelMarketGapMarket lower · higher

FloridaProjected 96 pts2.5%11%+8.1

CarolinaProjected 104 pts14%9.0%−5.2

San JoseProjected 88 pts0.4%5.0%+4.6

OttawaProjected 100 pts6.5%2.0%−4.5

Tampa BayProjected 102 pts9.8%5.5%−4.3

WashingtonProjected 93 pts1.6%5.0%+3.4

MontréalProjected 92 pts1.3%4.5%+3.2

EdmontonProjected 100 pts5.6%8.5%+2.9

MinnesotaProjected 99 pts3.7%6.0%+2.3

PittsburghProjected 98 pts4.2%2.0%−2.2

DallasProjected 97 pts3.3%5.5%+2.2

ColoradoProjected 106 pts14%13%−1.8

New JerseyProjected 92 pts1.8%3.5%+1.7

TorontoProjected 88 pts0.4%2.0%+1.7

UtahProjected 100 pts5.2%3.8%−1.4

CalgaryProjected 83 pts0.1%1.5%+1.4

BostonProjected 90 pts0.7%2.0%+1.3

BuffaloProjected 97 pts3.7%2.5%−1.2

DetroitProjected 92 pts1.7%0.5%−1.2

SeattleProjected 88 pts0.3%1.5%+1.2

PhiladelphiaProjected 87 pts0.4%1.5%+1.1

AnaheimProjected 96 pts1.9%3.0%+1.1

Los AngelesProjected 92 pts1.5%2.5%+1.0

St. LouisProjected 90 pts0.6%1.5%+1.0

VegasProjected 102 pts8.3%7.5%−0.8

ChicagoProjected 81 pts0.0%0.5%+0.5

NY IslandersProjected 90 pts1.0%0.5%−0.5

WinnipegProjected 93 pts1.0%0.5%−0.5

VancouverProjected 84 pts0.2%0.5%+0.4

ColumbusProjected 93 pts1.7%1.5%−0.2

NashvilleProjected 89 pts0.7%0.5%−0.2

NY RangersProjected 95 pts1.8%2.0%+0.2

TeamModelMarketGapMarket lower · higher

PittsburghProjected 98 pts68%33%−35.6

San JoseProjected 88 pts29%60%+31.2

TorontoProjected 88 pts21%52%+31.1

MontréalProjected 92 pts38%68%+30.1

WinnipegProjected 93 pts51%22%−29.2

WashingtonProjected 93 pts46%73%+26.9

DetroitProjected 92 pts40%14%−26.7

VancouverProjected 84 pts14%31%+16.2

Tampa BayProjected 102 pts82%67%−15.5

UtahProjected 100 pts81%67%−13.7

DallasProjected 97 pts65%78%+12.8

PhiladelphiaProjected 87 pts19%31%+12.0

New JerseyProjected 92 pts42%53%+10.8

VegasProjected 102 pts88%78%−10.5

CarolinaProjected 104 pts89%79%−10.3

OttawaProjected 100 pts76%67%−9.1

MinnesotaProjected 99 pts74%83%+8.7

FloridaProjected 96 pts60%52%−8.5

AnaheimProjected 96 pts63%55%−8.5

BostonProjected 90 pts30%38%+8.2

ColumbusProjected 93 pts42%35%−7.4

St. LouisProjected 90 pts31%39%+7.1

CalgaryProjected 83 pts12%19%+6.5

NY RangersProjected 95 pts55%48%−6.4

EdmontonProjected 100 pts82%77%−5.3

BuffaloProjected 97 pts63%59%−4.7

SeattleProjected 88 pts29%34%+4.4

ColoradoProjected 106 pts94%90%−4.2

ChicagoProjected 81 pts7.9%12%+3.6

Los AngelesProjected 92 pts48%51%+2.8

NY IslandersProjected 90 pts30%28%−1.9

NashvilleProjected 89 pts31%31%−0.6

TeamModelMarketGapMarket lower · higher

OttawaProjected 100 pts25%6.5%−18.3

VegasProjected 102 pts43%28%−15.5

San JoseProjected 88 pts3.2%19%+15.3

FloridaProjected 96 pts13%27%+14.5

PittsburghProjected 98 pts17%6.0%−11.3

MontréalProjected 92 pts5.1%16%+11.2

WashingtonProjected 93 pts7.7%19%+11.1

DallasProjected 97 pts9.7%20%+9.8

Tampa BayProjected 102 pts32%24%−8.4

UtahProjected 100 pts18%10%−7.7

BuffaloProjected 97 pts15%8.5%−6.8

EdmontonProjected 100 pts29%35%+6.1

MinnesotaProjected 99 pts15%21%+5.6

TorontoProjected 88 pts1.4%6.3%+4.8

NY RangersProjected 95 pts10%6.0%−4.3

ColumbusProjected 93 pts6.6%4.0%−2.6

New JerseyProjected 92 pts6.6%9.0%+2.5

CarolinaProjected 104 pts47%44%−2.3

ColoradoProjected 106 pts48%46%−2.2

WinnipegProjected 93 pts4.6%2.5%−2.1

AnaheimProjected 96 pts14%12%−2.0

DetroitProjected 92 pts5.3%3.5%−1.8

VancouverProjected 84 pts0.7%2.5%+1.8

ChicagoProjected 81 pts0.3%2.0%+1.8

Los AngelesProjected 92 pts6.7%5.3%−1.5

CalgaryProjected 83 pts0.9%1.5%+0.6

NY IslandersProjected 90 pts3.4%2.8%−0.6

PhiladelphiaProjected 87 pts1.8%2.3%+0.5

SeattleProjected 88 pts3.1%2.8%−0.4

NashvilleProjected 89 pts1.8%1.5%−0.3

BostonProjected 90 pts3.3%3.0%−0.3

St. LouisProjected 90 pts2.3%2.5%+0.2

TeamModelMarketGapMarket lower · higher

FloridaProjected 96 pts5.8%17%+11.0

San JoseProjected 88 pts1.3%11%+9.8

OttawaProjected 100 pts12%3.5%−8.8

WashingtonProjected 93 pts3.4%12%+8.7

ColoradoProjected 106 pts25%20%−5.3

PittsburghProjected 98 pts8.2%3.0%−5.2

CarolinaProjected 104 pts23%18%−5.1

Tampa BayProjected 102 pts16%12%−4.7

EdmontonProjected 100 pts12%16%+4.4

VegasProjected 102 pts17%13%−4.3

UtahProjected 100 pts11%8.0%−3.2

DallasProjected 97 pts8.0%11%+3.0

New JerseyProjected 92 pts3.6%6.5%+2.9

TorontoProjected 88 pts0.8%3.5%+2.7

MinnesotaProjected 99 pts8.7%11%+2.4

BuffaloProjected 97 pts7.7%5.5%−2.2

DetroitProjected 92 pts3.7%1.5%−2.2

MontréalProjected 92 pts3.0%5.0%+2.0

PhiladelphiaProjected 87 pts0.9%2.5%+1.6

SeattleProjected 88 pts1.2%2.5%+1.4

St. LouisProjected 90 pts1.7%3.0%+1.3

BostonProjected 90 pts2.0%3.0%+1.1

VancouverProjected 84 pts0.5%1.5%+1.1

AnaheimProjected 96 pts5.1%6.0%+0.9

WinnipegProjected 93 pts2.7%2.0%−0.7

NY RangersProjected 95 pts3.9%4.5%+0.6

Los AngelesProjected 92 pts4.0%3.5%−0.5

ChicagoProjected 81 pts0.1%0.5%+0.4

NY IslandersProjected 90 pts2.3%2.0%−0.3

ColumbusProjected 93 pts3.9%4.0%+0.2

CalgaryProjected 83 pts0.4%0.5%+0.2

NashvilleProjected 89 pts1.6%1.5%−0.1

TeamModelMarketGapMarket lower · higher

FloridaProjected 96 pts2.3%12%+9.7

VegasProjected 102 pts11%4.8%−6.3

ColoradoProjected 106 pts21%16%−5.7

OttawaProjected 100 pts6.1%1.5%−4.6

WashingtonProjected 93 pts1.0%5.0%+4.1

UtahProjected 100 pts6.1%2.3%−3.9

Tampa BayProjected 102 pts8.8%5.3%−3.6

MontréalProjected 92 pts0.7%3.5%+2.8

VancouverProjected 84 pts0.0%2.5%+2.5

NY IslandersProjected 90 pts0.4%2.5%+2.2

PittsburghProjected 98 pts3.5%1.5%−2.0

New JerseyProjected 92 pts0.8%2.5%+1.8

CalgaryProjected 83 pts0.0%1.5%+1.5

ChicagoProjected 81 pts0.0%1.5%+1.5

PhiladelphiaProjected 87 pts0.1%1.5%+1.5

WinnipegProjected 93 pts1.1%2.5%+1.4

TorontoProjected 88 pts0.2%1.5%+1.3

SeattleProjected 88 pts0.2%1.5%+1.3

NashvilleProjected 89 pts0.3%1.5%+1.3

BostonProjected 90 pts0.3%1.5%+1.2

San JoseProjected 88 pts0.3%1.5%+1.2

St. LouisProjected 90 pts0.4%1.5%+1.2

EdmontonProjected 100 pts5.9%7.0%+1.1

BuffaloProjected 97 pts3.4%2.5%−0.9

MinnesotaProjected 99 pts4.6%5.5%+0.9

ColumbusProjected 93 pts0.7%1.5%+0.9

DetroitProjected 92 pts0.7%1.5%+0.8

NY RangersProjected 95 pts1.8%2.5%+0.7

Los AngelesProjected 92 pts0.8%1.5%+0.7

AnaheimProjected 96 pts2.0%1.5%−0.5

DallasProjected 97 pts2.9%3.0%+0.1

CarolinaProjected 104 pts12%13%+0.0

Snapshot 7 Oct, 10:12 AM ET. Market = venue-average implied chance (midpoint). "Best" is the cheapest price to buy Yes after venue fees. Prices are snapshots taken every 15 minutes (season futures hourly), not live. Prediction markets carry risk of loss and are not available in every jurisdiction. 18+/21+ where applicable. How markets work · Affiliate disclosure

How the season finishes, played out 4,000 times

Points so far plus the rest of the schedule. Range is the middle 80% of simulated seasons; the line under eighth is where the playoff places usually end (division places can move a team either side of it).

Eastern Conference

#TeamStrengthPointsRangePlayoffsDivisionCup

1Carolina55.5%10493–11489%47%14%

2Tampa Bay54.2%10291–11282%32%9.8%

3Ottawa53.2%10089–11176%25%6.5%

4Pittsburgh52.1%9887–10868%17%4.2%

5Buffalo51.7%9786–10863%15%3.7%

6Florida50.6%9686–10760%13%2.5%

7NY Rangers49.5%9584–10555%10%1.8%

8Washington49.7%9382–10446%7.7%1.6%

9Columbus49.7%9382–10342%6.6%1.7%

10New Jersey50.1%9282–10342%6.6%1.8%

11Detroit50.0%9281–10340%5.3%1.7%

12Montréal49.3%9281–10338%5.1%1.3%

13Boston48.4%9080–10130%3.3%0.7%

14NY Islanders48.6%9079–10030%3.4%1.0%

15Toronto47.1%8877–9821%1.4%0.4%

16Philadelphia47.4%8776–9719%1.8%0.4%

Western Conference

#TeamStrengthPointsRangePlayoffsDivisionCup

1Colorado55.8%10695–11794%48%14%

2Vegas53.9%10292–11388%43%8.3%

3Utah52.7%10090–11181%18%5.2%

4Edmonton52.5%10089–11082%29%5.6%

5Minnesota51.8%9988–11074%15%3.7%

6Dallas52.3%9786–10865%9.7%3.3%

7Anaheim49.8%9685–10663%14%1.9%

8Winnipeg48.8%9382–10451%4.6%1.0%

9Los Angeles50.1%9281–10348%6.7%1.5%

10St. Louis48.4%9079–10131%2.3%0.6%

11Nashville47.9%8979–10031%1.8%0.7%

12San Jose46.6%8878–9929%3.2%0.4%

13Seattle47.2%8878–9929%3.1%0.3%

14Vancouver44.9%8473–9514%0.7%0.2%

15Calgary45.8%8372–9412%0.9%0.1%

16Chicago44.3%8171–927.9%0.3%0.0%

Shot quality in, a season out

Model: 4,000 simulated seasons from each team's shot quality, run after the latest final (7 Oct, 4:07 am ET).

Methodology → · Team expected goals →