2026-27 regular season · through 6 Oct

NHL goals, luck and expected points

Expected points (xPTS) come from expected goals: each team's share of shot quality, for and against, turned into points at the league's average of 1.115 a game. GD PTS is the same sum on actual goals. Luck is points minus xPTS: finishing, goaltending, overtime and one-goal games.

Goals & luck · standings order · 52 games playedHover a column name for its definition

Atlantic

Eastern
Cmp#TeamGPGFGADIFFPTSGD PTSXGFXGAXPTSLUCK
1FloridaFLA488064.512.09.45.5+0.5
2OttawaOTT3108+244.08.910.22.9+1.1
3Tampa BayTBL387+143.712.17.94.6−0.6
4BuffaloBUF31011−143.110.66.54.7−0.7
5TorontoTOR41111044.513.612.94.7−0.7
6BostonBOS4911−243.711.512.54.1−0.1
7MontréalMTL31214−232.97.810.82.4+0.6
8DetroitDET378−122.99.78.63.7−1.7

Metropolitan

Eastern
Cmp#TeamGPGFGADIFFPTSGD PTSXGFXGAXPTSLUCK
1NY RangersNYR5168+888.717.213.86.6+1.4
2CarolinaCAR41112−154.115.08.86.4−1.4
3PittsburghPIT3158+745.110.77.44.4−0.4
4WashingtonWSH265+122.65.08.21.3+0.7
5ColumbusCBJ277022.24.95.62.0+0.0
6NY IslandersNYI397+224.18.711.12.6−0.6
7New JerseyNJD3613−721.310.59.03.8−1.8
8PhiladelphiaPHI4517−1220.97.818.01.6+0.4

Central

Western
Cmp#TeamGPGFGADIFFPTSGD PTSXGFXGAXPTSLUCK
1UtahUTA4178+967.114.510.85.6+0.4
2MinnesotaMIN395+455.09.08.53.5+1.5
3WinnipegWPG398+153.710.110.13.3+1.7
4ColoradoCOL2145+943.96.35.12.7+1.3
5NashvilleNSH379−232.67.59.42.7+0.3
6DallasDAL366023.39.27.34.0−2.0
7St. LouisSTL3710−322.38.110.02.7−0.7
8ChicagoCHI4917−822.29.715.32.7−0.7

Pacific

Western
Cmp#TeamGPGFGADIFFPTSGD PTSXGFXGAXPTSLUCK
1VegasVGK41710+766.415.28.46.6−0.6
2EdmontonEDM31714+353.99.96.34.7+0.3
3AnaheimANA275+242.94.47.01.3+2.7
4San JoseSJS3912−342.56.411.21.8+2.2
5SeattleSEA41511+445.710.412.63.7+0.3
6VancouverVAN41918+144.79.812.63.5+0.5
7Los AngelesLAK3915−611.98.67.33.9−2.9
8CalgaryCGY3316−1300.37.610.12.5−2.5

Ordered by points, then points %, regulation wins, regulation and overtime wins, wins, goal differential and goals for. Pace is points per game over the full 84-game season. Click a team for its page.

Guide

Goals, luck and expected points

Goal differential is a better guide to a team’s strength than its record: over a season, about six goals of differential are worth one win. This report sets each team’s points against the points its goals for and against would usually earn. A team well above its expected points has been winning the close games, and that rarely lasts.

Updated after every final · through 6 Oct, 52 games