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‹FRI OCT 23›
2 games tonight
‹FRIOCT 23›
Montréal at Chicago, 8:00 PM ET:
8:00 PM
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Tampa Bay at Colorado, 9:00 PM ET:
9:00 PM
TBL47%
COL53%
Power rankings · edition 1 · Oct 12, 2026

NHL power rankings, October 12, 2026

All 32 teams ranked by our model, set every Monday morning once the weekend's games are final: points already banked plus the rest of the season played out 4,000 times from shot quality. This edition counts 86 games.

1Carolina Hurricanes5-1-1 · 11 pts · Up 1
Projected
110 pts
Playoffs
90%
Strength
54.8
Cup price
9.5%
2Vegas Golden Knights5-1-0 · 10 pts · Up 3
Projected
107 pts
Playoffs
86%
Strength
53.6
Cup price
7.5%
3Colorado Avalanche3-2-0 · 6 pts · Down 2
Projected
105 pts
Playoffs
82%
Strength
53.6
Cup price
13%
Biggest riserNY RangersUp 15 places, 27th to 12th, against the preseason orderTeam page →Biggest fallerPhiladelphiaDown 18 places, 12th to 30th, against the preseason orderTeam page →Best shot shareVegas 63.6%Share of expected goals this season, 2nd in the rankingsShot data →Results ahead of the shotsSan Jose3-2-0 on a 35.4% shot shareGoals and luck →
Edition of Oct 12, 2026

Carolina is first, Chicago last

Ranked by projected points; the move is against the preseason order. The Cup price is the cross-venue prediction-market average, next to our own numbers.

#MoveTeamRecordProj. ptsPlayoffsStrengthShot shareDiffPPPKCup priceForm
1Up 1Carolina Hurricanes5-1-111090%54.863.6%+1023.3%92.9%9.5%Won 5 in a row · goals 27-17
2Up 3Vegas Golden Knights5-1-010786%53.663.6%+930.4%81.3%7.5%Won 4 in a row · goals 25-18
3Down 2Colorado Avalanche3-2-010582%53.658.1%+922.2%85.7%13%Lost 1 · goals 26-17
4UnchangedTampa Bay Lightning4-1-010377%52.658.4%+410.0%72.7%6.5%Won 4 in a row · goals 16-12
5Up 1Edmonton Oilers4-0-110277%52.360.3%+822.2%66.7%8.5%Won 4 in a row · goals 25-17
6Up 2Utah Mammoth4-2-010274%52.360.8%+740.0%77.3%3.5%Won 1 · goals 22-15
7Down 4Ottawa Senators4-1-010273%52.251.0%+412.5%78.3%1.5%Won 2 in a row · goals 19-12
8Up 7Anaheim Ducks4-1-09867%50.351.0%+537.5%88.9%2.5%Won 2 in a row · goals 18-13
9UnchangedMinnesota Wild3-1-19863%50.852.2%+637.5%94.1%6.0%Won 1 · goals 19-11
10UnchangedNew Jersey Devils2-2-09656%51.054.3%−422.2%63.6%3.0%Won 1 · goals 11-18
11UnchangedPittsburgh Penguins3-2-19656%50.651.6%+520.0%94.1%1.5%Won 1 · goals 22-17
12Up 15New York Rangers5-2-09656%49.654.5%+1026.3%90.0%1.5%Won 1 · goals 23-13
13Down 6Dallas Stars2-2-19554%50.951.6%+37.7%88.2%5.5%OT loss last time · goals 11-8
14UnchangedFlorida Panthers2-1-29553%50.452.0%−33.6%77.3%10%Lost 1 · goals 12-17
15Up 6St. Louis Blues2-2-19452%49.951.3%−29.1%93.3%0.5%Won 1 · goals 14-16
16Up 2Columbus Blue Jackets2-2-09450%49.949.0%−120.0%75.0%1.5%Lost 1 · goals 13-14
17Down 1Buffalo Sabres2-3-09347%50.955.3%−85.9%62.5%2.5%Lost 2 in a row · goals 16-22
18Down 5Los Angeles Kings0-2-29351%50.349.8%−720.0%56.3%2.0%OT loss last time · goals 10-17
19Up 3Winnipeg Jets3-1-19246%49.147.0%−228.6%90.9%0.5%Lost 1 · goals 13-15
20UnchangedWashington Capitals3-2-09245%49.547.2%+315.4%88.2%5.5%Lost 1 · goals 17-14
21Down 2Montréal Canadiens2-2-19243%49.345.8%−45.9%76.2%5.0%Won 1 · goals 15-19
22Down 5Detroit Red Wings1-3-19243%50.150.1%−521.1%70.0%0.5%OT loss last time · goals 10-15
23Up 6Seattle Kraken4-2-09041%48.448.8%+923.5%75.0%0.5%Won 2 in a row · goals 26-17
24Up 1Boston Bruins4-2-08936%48.546.6%+718.8%81.0%1.5%Won 2 in a row · goals 20-13
25Down 1Nashville Predators2-1-28935%48.545.3%031.6%82.4%0.5%OT loss last time · goals 14-14
26Down 3New York Islanders2-3-08832%48.644.6%+325.0%84.2%0.5%Lost 1 · goals 16-13
27Up 3Toronto Maple Leafs3-2-18628%47.545.0%+226.3%95.0%2.0%Won 1 · goals 20-18
28Down 2San Jose Sharks3-2-08423%46.935.4%−415.4%81.3%5.0%Lost 1 · goals 13-17
29Down 1Calgary Flames0-5-08221%47.844.5%−1920.0%86.7%0.5%Lost 5 in a row · goals 8-27
30Down 18Philadelphia Flyers0-5-28116%47.132.9%−209.5%80.8%1.5%Lost 4 in a row · goals 8-28
31Up 1Vancouver Canucks2-5-08015%46.140.1%−1119.0%52.0%0.5%Lost 4 in a row · goals 24-35
32Down 1Chicago Blackhawks1-5-08014%46.440.4%−147.1%68.8%0.5%Lost 2 in a row · goals 12-26

Model run Oct 11, 10:08 PM ET. Strength: 50 is an average team. Projected points: tap or hover for the range that 80% of simulated seasons end in.

Results and shot quality

Who is winning, and who is winning the shots

Points percentage across, share of expected goals up. The shaded corner is above average on both. Teams far to the right of where their shots put them tend to come back, and the model ranks them with that in mind.

0%30%25%40%50%50%75%60%100%70%POINTS %SHOT SHARE0%30%25%40%50%50%75%60%100%70%POINTS %SHOT SHARE

Early in the season a team has played only a handful of games, so a dot can move a long way in a night.

The weekly column

AnalysisPower rankings: Carolina stays No. 1, Boston climbs eight placesOct 19 · 4 minAnalysisPower rankings: Carolina starts at No. 1, projected for 110 pointsOct 12 · 4 min
About this page

How the power rankings work

The rank
Each team's projected points for the full 84-game season: the points it has already, plus the rest of its schedule played out 4,000 times by our season model. Ties go to the stronger team.
Strength
The model's rating: a team's share of expected goals, this season on top of last season counted as 30 games and pulled most of the way back to average, because last season says less about this one than it seems. 50 is an average team; every point above 50 is a real edge over a season. Each simulated season also varies every team's strength a little, so the chances allow for how much is still unknown.
Shot share
This season only: the share of expected goals in a team's games, from the quality and location of every unblocked shot. Above 50% means it is creating more than it allows.
Playoffs and the Cup
The share of simulated seasons in which the team makes the playoffs or wins the Stanley Cup. The Cup price next to it is what the prediction markets charge, which is a different question: a gap is a disagreement, not a tip.
When it changes
A new edition is set every Monday morning, once the weekend's games are final, and compared with the one before. Between editions the Now line shows where a team would rank after the latest results.
Early in the season
Until about 30 games, last season still carries much of the weight, so a hot start moves a team less than the standings do. That is deliberate: a few games say little about a team.
Archive

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