Carolina is No. 1 again in this week’s power rankings. The October 19 edition froze with 136 games played, and our season model has the Hurricanes at 110.9 projected points, up 0.6 on last week, with a 93.3% chance of making the playoffs. Colorado moved up to second at 106.7 and Vegas slipped to third at 106.3, even though the Golden Knights have the best goal differential in the league, +18.
Carolina keeps the top spot
The Hurricanes are 7-2-1 and +12, and they still take the biggest share of the expected goals in their games, 61.6%. Sebastian Aho has 14 points in 10 games and Andrei Svechnikov 11, and the penalty kill has stopped 91.4% of the power plays against it. The soft spot is still in net, an .895 team save percentage, and they lost their last game. The middle 80% of simulated seasons put Carolina between 96 and 125 points.
Risers and fallers
Boston made the biggest move, from 24th to 16th. The Bruins have won five straight, are 7-2-0 and +15, and David Pastrnak has 12 points in nine games. Their projection rose 3.7 points, to 93.0. Montreal climbed seven places to 14th, with 10 points in eight games from Nick Suzuki, and Minnesota three to sixth, where Kirill Kaprizov has 10 goals in nine games.
Pittsburgh fell furthest, from 11th to 19th. The Penguins have lost three straight, are 3-5-1 and minus four, and their team save percentage is .879. Erik Karlsson has nine assists and no goals. Columbus dropped seven places to 23rd on a 45.0% shot share, and Anaheim five to 13th after two straight losses.
One record flatters, one undersells
Boston’s climb comes with a caveat. The Bruins have taken 48.6% of the expected goals in their games, less than half, and the wins rest on a .929 team save percentage, third best in the league behind Dallas and the Islanders. The model weighs the shots more than the saves, which is why seven wins in nine games still leave Boston 16th.
Los Angeles is the opposite case. The Kings have not won in six games, 0-4-2 and minus 13, yet their 50.8% shot share is better than even. The difference is in net: an .861 team save percentage, level with Buffalo and ahead of only Calgary. The model has the Kings 21st, projected for 91.2 points, with a 45.1% chance of the playoffs.
The playoff line
On projected points, Carolina, New Jersey and the Rangers would take the Metropolitan places and Tampa Bay, Ottawa and Florida the Atlantic. Montreal (94.3) and Buffalo (93.5) hold the wild cards. Boston is 0.5 points behind Buffalo, with Pittsburgh and Detroit, both at 91.8, next.
In the West, Colorado, Utah and Minnesota lead the Central, and Vegas, Edmonton and Anaheim the Pacific. Dallas (96.3) and St. Louis (92.1) hold the wild cards. Winnipeg is first out, 0.2 points behind St. Louis, and Los Angeles is 0.9 behind.
Where the model and the market disagree
The model’s Stanley Cup favorite is still Carolina, at 13.4% against 10.0% in the market. The market’s favorite is Colorado at 11.0%, where the model has 8.8%. The widest gap is again Florida: 10.0% in the market, 3.9% in the model. Washington is next, 5.5% in the market against 1.5%, then Edmonton, 8.0% against 4.7%. The other way, the model has Ottawa at 5.8% and the market 2.5%. Every team’s gap is on the market vs model page. A gap is a disagreement, not a tip.
Last week’s column, on the first edition, is here. A new edition freezes every Monday morning, once the weekend’s games are final, and the live power rankings move with every result in between.
