The prediction markets still like Florida. With 86 games of the season played and Aleksander Barkov on long-term injured reserve, the Panthers trade at 10.0% to win the Stanley Cup, second behind Colorado at 12.5%. Our season model has them at 2.8%, a 7.2-point gap that is the widest of any team on the market vs model page.
Why the two disagree
Our model rates each team on shot quality, its share of the expected goals in its games, starting from last season and leaning more on this one with every game played. It then plays the remaining 1,258 regular-season games 4,000 times, with some uncertainty about each team’s true strength built into every run. It has Florida at 95 points and a 53% chance of making the playoffs. It does not read the injury list or the roster, so Barkov’s absence is not in the number: the model is paying for how the Panthers have been shooting, and the market is paying for who is playing.
Whichever is closer, a gap is a disagreement and not a tip.
Florida · Stanley Cup
The month’s movers
Prices here move in half-point steps, so we only count moves of a point or more.
- Florida: down. From a peak of 13.5% on September 30 to 10.5% two days later, and 10.0% now. Barkov was hurt on October 1 in a 4-3 overtime loss to San Jose.
- Vegas: up two points, from 5.5% on September 13 to 7.5%, with Jack Eichel third in the league with 12 points in six games. Our model has the Golden Knights at 8.4%, third behind Carolina and Colorado.
- Montreal: up 1.5 points, from 3.5% to 5.0%, even with Ivan Demidov out for two to four weeks and a 6-4 home loss to Carolina in the opener. Our model has Montreal at 1.9%, a 3.1-point gap.
- Colorado: up one point, from 11.5% to 12.5% after an 8-4 opening win over Los Angeles, with a high of 13.5% in the first week.
Where the model is higher
The model’s favorite is Carolina at 11.7%, against 9.5% in the market, with Colorado next at 9.0%. Its widest gap the other way is Ottawa: 5.7% in the model against 1.5% in the market, a 4.2-point gap, with the Senators projected for 102 points and a 73% chance of making the playoffs. The market has gone the other way on Ottawa, down from 2.5% in mid-September.
Colorado leads the market at 12.5%. The model has the Avalanche second, at 9.0%, projected for 105 points.
Colorado · Stanley Cup
Every team’s price and every venue is on the Stanley Cup odds page, with the model explained. For a single game, the market backed New Jersey over the Flyers in their first meeting, against what last season’s table said. Where every team ranks on our own numbers is on the power rankings. New to prediction markets? How they work.
