Updated October 23. A week ago Connor McDavid had just overtaken Macklin Celebrini as the Hart Trophy favorite, at about 29% implied. Three games and 13 points later, he is past 50%. On the morning of October 23 he cost 58 cents on Kalshi and 50 on Polymarket, about 53% averaged across the venues. Celebrini is at 12%.
What moved the price
McDavid had two goals and three assists in a 6-2 win at Utah on October 17, three assists in a 4-3 overtime win over Minnesota on October 20 and two goals and three assists in a 6-5 shootout win over Carolina on Thursday. That made 31 points in 10 games, and he is only the fourth player to reach 30 points in 10 games or fewer, after Mario Lemieux, Mike Bossy and Wayne Gretzky. The Oilers are 8-1-1.
Counting the last two games of last season, he has a point in 12 straight, the longest active point streak in the league. Streaks have been on every preview and player page since October 15. His average price has nearly doubled in a week, from about 29% on October 16 to 53% the morning after the Carolina game.
Celebrini, and where the venues disagree
Celebrini has 14 points in nine games, five goals and nine assists. Since our last update he had three points in a shootout loss at Detroit on October 17 and three in an overtime win at Montreal on October 20, but none in a 3-1 loss at Toronto on October 19 or in Thursday’s 6-2 win at Ottawa. The Sharks are 6-4-1.
The venues disagree on him more than on anyone: 19 cents on Kalshi and 7 on Polymarket. Kalshi is higher on most of the names near the top, with Nathan MacKinnon at 12 cents against 6, Minnesota’s Kirill Kaprizov at 10 against 5, and McDavid himself at 58 against 50. Gaps that wide in a season-long market this early are more likely thin books than news, which is why we average the venues. Each venue’s price is on the Hart Trophy market page, with the cheapest marked.
The rest of the field
Behind the top two, five players are priced between 3.5% and 7%:
- Nathan MacKinnon, Colorado (6.6%). 16 points in 10 games, six of them goals, and 44 shots, the most of anyone in the market’s top five. Colorado is 5-4-1.
- Kirill Kaprizov, Minnesota (5.2%). 17 points in 11 games and the league lead in goals, with 11. Minnesota is 6-3-2.
- Alexis Lafrenière, NY Rangers (3.9%). 14 points in 12 games, eight of them goals. Only Kalshi prices him. The Rangers are 7-4-1.
- Auston Matthews, Toronto (3.5%). 18 points in 12 games, eight of them goals. Toronto is 6-4-2.
- Cale Makar, Colorado (3.5%). 11 points in nine games, and the only defenseman priced this high.
The second-highest scorer in the league is priced at 1.3%: McDavid’s teammate Leon Draisaitl, with 21 points, 10 of them goals. Last season’s winner, Nikita Kucherov, has 13 points in nine games and is at 1.9%.
Ten games is an eighth of the season, and the award goes to the player judged most valuable to his team, so team results feed the vote too: Edmonton is 8-1-1, San Jose 6-4-1. Our October 3 story has the case the market was making then, and the goalies’ race is in our Vezina Trophy odds story.
