Philadelphia Flyers at Ottawa Senators: game preview
PhiladelphiaFlyers2026-27: 0-2-2 · 2 pts · 2025-26: 43-27-12 · 98 pts · 11that
OttawaSenators2026-27: 2-1-0 · 4 pts · 2025-26: 44-27-11 · 99 pts · 9thOttawa favoured at 51.1%
Philadelphia finished last season 11th in the league on 98 points. Ottawa finished 9th on 99, and the 2025-26 season series went OTT 3-0-0.
With the bookmaker margin removed, 1 US books price Ottawa at 51.1% at home. Last season's table, adjusted for home ice, would put them at 54.1%.
Where the market disagrees with the table
Table probability uses 2025-26 points percentage (.604 vs .598) with home-ice advantage. The market rates Ottawa 3.1 points lower than last season's table does.
MethodMeeting number 130
Across 129 completed games, Ottawa lead the head-to-head 65-50-14.
Last 5 meetings
See all: Last 5 meetings →The table on each 2025-26 meeting night
League rank after that night's games; a longer bar is a higher place. On 23 Oct 2025, Philadelphia were 22nd in the league and Ottawa 26th. By 5 Feb 2026 it was 17th and 25th.
Philadelphia out-attempted Ottawa 276 to 253
Every attempt from the last meetings, both teams shooting right.
Philadelphia Flyers
Ottawa Senators
Ottawa have created the better chances, last 10 games
Shot quality both ways: expected goals weigh every unblocked attempt by its chance of scoring. Finishing above zero means more goals than the chances.
This season: 4 games for Philadelphia, 3 for Ottawa. Small sample: early-season xG moves a lot from night to night.
Last 10 games: 10 games for Philadelphia, 10 for Ottawa.
2025-26: 86 games for Philadelphia, 82 for Ottawa.
Power play and penalty kill, season and series
This season's rates first, then 2025-26 and the last meetings between the two. Power-play chances are counted from the penalty log with coincidental minors cancelled; faceoffs are each club's wins over draws taken.
All bars share one scale · 0–100%SeasonLast meetings
Philadelphia
Small sampleOttawa
Small sampleTim Stützle has 7 points in the last 5 meetings
Each club's top three forwards and defencemen by points this season, with 2025-26 one tap away, then who has produced in the last meetings.
Tim Stützle vs Philadelphia · game by game
See all: Tim Stützle vs Philadelphia · game by game →Dan Vladar has been the difference
Dan Vladar faced 60 shots across 2 appearances against Ottawa and conceded 4, a .933 save percentage against a season figure of .863. Starters are confirmed on game day.
- Started 2 of 4 this season
- .929 save percentage over his last three starts
2026-27: 2 GP · .929 SV% · GSAx +3
Also possible: Vladar 36%
Dan Vladar
See all: Dan Vladar →PHI · 0-2-0 in 2026-27 Chance to start · 36%
Also on the roster, 2026-27: Joseph Woll .929 (2 GP)
Full game logLinus Ullmark
See all: Linus Ullmark →OTT · 2-0-0 in 2026-27 OutReturn 8 Oct
Also on the roster, 2026-27: Samuel Ersson .886 (2 GP)
Full game logA total set below what the numbers suggest
The board sits at 5.5. Both teams' scoring rates point to 6.1. The last 5 meetings averaged 5.0 goals and went over 2 times.
Goals in the last 5 meetings
Bar length is total goals, coloured by the winner; the red mark is tonight's line of 5.5.
Scoring rates
Philadelphia1.254.253.052.96
Ottawa3.332.673.393.00Goals for and against per game. The estimate averages each team’s scoring with the other’s goals allowed, and leans on 2025-26 until a team has played 20 games.
Two markets, one coin flip
US and Canadian books are kept apart because they are separate markets with different books and prices.
Moneyline by market
Philadelphia51¢51¢49.0%Ottawa54¢54¢51.1%Philadelphia52¢52¢48.3%Ottawa56¢56¢51.7%Snapshot 6 Oct, 4:11 PM ET
Lines on the board
Kalshi · Best
Polymarket
ProphetXSportsbook prices are shown as implied cents (100 ÷ decimal odds) so they compare directly with prediction-market prices. Fair = margin removed. Snapshot 7 Oct, 10:42 AM ET. "Best" is the cheapest price to buy Yes after venue fees. Prices are snapshots taken every 15 minutes (season futures hourly), not live. Prediction markets carry risk of loss and are not available in every jurisdiction. 18+/21+ where applicable. How markets work · Affiliate disclosure
9 on the injury lists
Philadelphia · injuries
Ottawa · injuries
Latest moves
See all: Latest moves →Reinstated C Jett Luchanko Barkey from injured reserve.
Agreed to terms with LW Garrett Wilson on a 1-Year contract. Loaned G Alexei Kolosov to Lehigh Valley (AHL).
Loaned Fs Jacob Gaucher, Cole Knuble and Jett Luchanko and D Oliver Bonk to Lehigh Valley (AHL).
Recalled G Marcus Johansson from Belleville (AHL). Assigned D Donovan Sebrango to Belleville.
Recalled D Donovan Sebrango from Belleville (AHL). Placed LW Andre Burakovsky on injured reserve.
Loaned D Hoyt Stanley to Belleville (AHL).
Philadelphia · 2026 draft
See all: Philadelphia · 2026 draft →Ottawa · 2026 draft
See all: Ottawa · 2026 draft →
Updated after every final · Snapshot 6 Oct, 4:11 PM ET