Game preview · NHL 2026-27

Toronto Maple Leafs at Colorado Avalanche: game preview

Puck drop10 Oct · 7:00 PM ET
VenueBall Arena
All-time meetings49 completed
BasisLast 5 meetings + 2025-26
The thesis

Forty-three points apart last season

Toronto finished last season 28th in the league on 78 points. Colorado finished 1st on 121, and the 2025-26 season series went TOR 1-1-0.

Game-day prices arrive with the afternoon snapshot, about 4:30 PM ET on the day of the game.

Head-to-head

Meeting number 50

Across 49 completed games, Colorado lead the head-to-head 27-20-2.

All-time record27-20-2Colorado's record in the series
Meetings played49This is number 50
2025-26 seriesTOR 1-1-0
Last 53-2Toronto
DateResultShotsPower playWinner
25 Jan 2026COL 4 – TOR 137–33COL 0/2 · TOR 1/3COL
12 Jan 2026TOR 4 – COL 3 OT31–34TOR 0/2 · COL 1/3TOR
19 Mar 2025COL 1 – TOR 239–26COL 1/2 · TOR 1/1TOR
8 Mar 2025TOR 4 – COL 721–34TOR 1/1 · COL 1/3COL
24 Feb 2024TOR 4 – COL 330–29TOR 2/2 · COL 1/1TOR
Head-to-head finder

The table on each 2025-26 meeting night

DateTorontoColorado
12 Jan 202623-15-7 · 53 pts10th33-4-8 · 74 pts1st
25 Jan 202624-19-9 · 57 pts18th35-6-9 · 79 pts1st

League rank after that night's games; a longer bar is a higher place. On 12 Jan 2026, Toronto were 10th in the league and Colorado 1st. By 25 Jan 2026 it was 18th and 1st.


Where the shots come from · last 5 meetings

Colorado out-attempted Toronto 362 to 265

Every attempt from the last meetings, both teams shooting right.

Toronto Maple Leafs

265 att · 142 on goal · 15 G · 10.6%
Crease26 att · 2 G
Slot90 att · 6 G
Wing106 att · 6 G
Point27 att · 1 G
Neutral zone16 att · 0 G

Colorado Avalanche

362 att · 173 on goal · 18 G · 10.4%
Crease19 att · 1 G
Slot153 att · 10 G
Wing113 att · 4 G
Point65 att · 1 G
Neutral zone12 att · 2 G
GoalOn goalMissedBlocked

Expected goals

Colorado have created the better chances, last 10 games

Shot quality both ways: expected goals weigh every unblocked attempt by its chance of scoring. Finishing above zero means more goals than the chances.

TorontoColorado
3.40xG for per game3.16
3.21xG against per game2.55
51.4%xG share55.4%
−2.6FinishingGoals minus expected goals+7.7
+1.9GoaltendingExpected goals against minus goals allowed+0.1

This season: 4 games for Toronto, 2 for Colorado. Small sample: early-season xG moves a lot from night to night.

Every team’s xG →


Special teams

Power play and penalty kill, season and series

This season's rates first, then 2025-26 and the last meetings between the two. Power-play chances are counted from the penalty log with coincidental minors cancelled; faceoffs are each club's wins over draws taken.

All bars share one scale · 0–100%SeasonLast meetings

Toronto

Small sample
Power play · 2026-2721.4%
Power play · 2025-2621.3% · 15th
Power play · last 5 meetings5/9 · 55.6%
Penalty kill · 2026-2790.9%
Penalty kill · 2025-2681.2% · 8th
Faceoffs · 2026-2747.0% · 79/168
Drawn · 2026-2714 (3.50/gm)
Drawn · last meetings9 (1.80/gm)
Shorthanded · 2026-2711 (2.75/gm)
PP goals · last meetings5

Colorado

Small sample
Power play · 2026-2744.4%
Power play · 2025-2617.1% · 27th
Power play · last 5 meetings4/11 · 36.4%
Penalty kill · 2026-27100.0%
Penalty kill · 2025-2684.6% · 1st
Faceoffs · 2026-2746.8% · 58/124
Drawn · 2026-279 (4.50/gm)
Drawn · last meetings11 (2.20/gm)
Shorthanded · 2026-276 (3.00/gm)
PP goals · last meetings4

Skaters

Nathan MacKinnon has 10 points in the last 5 meetings

Each club's top three forwards and defencemen by points this season, with 2025-26 one tap away, then who has produced in the last meetings.

PlayerGPGAPP/GP
34Auston Matthews42351.25
91John Tavares41230.75
88Martin Necas22242.00
Points leaders
PlayerGPGAPP/GP
44Morgan Rielly40330.75
43Darren Raddysh40110.25
42Josh Manson21231.50
8Cale Makar21231.50
7Devon Toews20221.00
Defencemen stats

Nathan MacKinnon vs Toronto · game by game

See all: Nathan MacKinnon vs Toronto · game by game →
DateVenueGAPSOGTOI
25 Jan 2026away011223:18
12 Jan 2026home033324:40
19 Mar 2025away011623:26
8 Mar 2025home202325:28
24 Feb 2024home033223:17
Last 5 meetings10 P2 G, 8 A · 16 SOG
Next best7 PAuston Matthews, TOR
2026-27 season5 P2 GP · 2 G
Blank vs TOR0 of 5A point in every meeting
Full game log

Goaltending

Mackenzie Blackwood has started most of these meetings

Mackenzie Blackwood played 3 of the last 5 meetings with Toronto, with a .913 save percentage. Starters are confirmed on game day.

Expected startersAn estimate until the teams confirmEvery game tonight →

Expected starter after their game on 8 Oct: a back-to-back depends on who plays that night.

Expected starter after their game on 8 Oct: a back-to-back depends on who plays that night.

Toronto crease

TOR · 2026-27 Starter not named

Sergei Bobrovsky.8872 GP · 0-2-0 · GSAx +0.1
Anthony Stolarz.9042 GP · 2-0-0 · GSAx +0.6
#vs COLAppsSAGASV%
41Anthony Stolarz1325.844

COL · 2-0-0 in 2026-27 Starter not named

SV% · 2026-27.9122 GP · 2.50 GAA · 2025-26 .904
vs Toronto.9133 app · 80 SA · 7 GA
GSAx · 2026-27+0.12 starts · most on the roster
vs TORVenueSAGASV%
25 Jan 2026away331.970
19 Mar 2025away262.923
8 Mar 2025home214.810
Full game log

Totals

Scoring rates point to about 6.5 goals

No total is posted yet: it arrives with the game-day prices. Until then, the scoring rates and the recent meetings set the range.

Goals in the last 5 meetings

25 Jan 20265 · COL 4–1 TOR
12 Jan 20267 · TOR 4–3 COL
19 Mar 20253 · COL 1–2 TOR
8 Mar 202511 · TOR 4–7 COL
24 Feb 20247 · TOR 4–3 COL

Bar length is total goals, coloured by the winner.

Scoring rates

Team26-27 GF26-27 GA25-26 GF25-26 GA
Toronto2.752.753.093.65
Colorado7.002.503.682.48

Goals for and against per game. The estimate averages each team’s scoring with the other’s goals allowed, and leans on 2025-26 until a team has played 20 games.

Scoring rates suggest6.5Goals in this game
Last 5 meetings6.6Goals per game
Line—No total posted yet
Books at the line—With the game-day prices

Team news

9 on the injury lists

Toronto · injuries

Cade WebberElbowIRReturn31 Oct
Dakota JoshuaAbdomenIRReturn24 Oct
Elvis MerzlikinsShoulderIRReturn30 Mar
Max DomiBackIRReturn21 Nov
William VilleneuveKneeIRReturn31 Oct

Colorado · injuries

Georgii MerkulovUndisclosedIRReturn16 Oct
Logan O'ConnorLower BodyIRReturn7 Oct
Trent MinerUndisclosedIRReturn10 Oct
Zachary L'HeureuxLower BodyIRReturn7 Oct
5 Oct · TOR

Placed RW Nikita Grebenkin on injured reserve.

30 Sep · TOR

Moved C Max Domi from the non-roster list to long-term injured reserve.

29 Sep · TOR

Placed D Cade Webber on the injured non-roster list.

27 Sep · COL

Placed LD Keaton Middleton, LD Wyatt Aamodt, RW/LW Fabian Lysell, C Vinnie Hinostroza, LW Adam Beckman and LW Tristen Nielsen on waivers.

27 Sep · COL

Placed D Keaton Middleton, D Wyatt Aamodt, LW Fabian Lysell, C Vinnie Hinostroza, LW Adam Beckman and G Mads Sogaard Nielsen on waivers.

25 Sep · COL

Reassigned Ds Domenick Fensore, Saige Weinstein and Christian Wolanin to Colorado (AHL).

Injury report
#1Gavin McKennaRound 1 · Penn StateLW
#60Alexander BileckiRound 2 · KitchenerD
#69Ethan MacKenzieRound 3 · EdmontonD
#73Zach OlsenRound 3 · SaskatoonRW
Full draft
#43Egor ShilovRound 2 · VictoriavilleC
#74Beckett HamiltonRound 3 · Red DeerC
#126Tobias TvrznikRound 4 · WenatcheeG
#128Axel ElofssonRound 4 · Orebro Jr.D
Full draft

Updated after every final