Pittsburgh Penguins at Washington Capitals: game preview
PittsburghPenguins2026-27: 2-1-0 · 4 pts · 2025-26: 41-25-16 · 98 pts · 10that
WashingtonCapitals2026-27: 1-1-0 · 2 pts · 2025-26: 43-30-9 · 95 pts · 12thThe market backs Washington, last season's table backs Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh finished last season 10th in the league on 98 points. Washington finished 12th on 95, and the 2025-26 season series went WSH 2-1-0.
With the bookmaker margin removed, 8 US books price Washington at 59.2% at home. Last season's table, adjusted for home ice, would put them at 51.6%.
Where the market disagrees with the table
Table probability uses 2025-26 points percentage (.579 vs .598) with home-ice advantage. The market rates Washington 7.6 points higher than last season's table does.
MethodMeeting number 327
Across 326 completed games, Pittsburgh lead the head-to-head 177-132-17.
Last 5 meetings
See all: Last 5 meetings →The table on each 2025-26 meeting night
League rank after that night's games; a longer bar is a higher place. On 6 Nov 2025, Pittsburgh were 4th in the league and Washington 19th. By 12 Apr 2026 it was 8th and 12th.
Pittsburgh out-attempted Washington 325 to 291
Every attempt from the last meetings, both teams shooting right.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Washington Capitals
Pittsburgh and Washington are level on chances, last 10 games
Shot quality both ways: expected goals weigh every unblocked attempt by its chance of scoring. Finishing above zero means more goals than the chances.
This season: 3 games for Pittsburgh, 2 for Washington. Small sample: early-season xG moves a lot from night to night.
Last 10 games: 10 games for Pittsburgh, 10 for Washington.
2025-26: 82 games for Pittsburgh, 82 for Washington.
Power play and penalty kill, season and series
This season's rates first, then 2025-26 and the last meetings between the two. Power-play chances are counted from the penalty log with coincidental minors cancelled; faceoffs are each club's wins over draws taken.
All bars share one scale · 0–100%SeasonLast meetings
Pittsburgh
Small sampleWashington
Small sampleConnor McMichael has 6 points in the last 5 meetings
Each club's top three forwards and defencemen by points this season, with 2025-26 one tap away, then who has produced in the last meetings.
Connor McMichael vs Pittsburgh · game by game
See all: Connor McMichael vs Pittsburgh · game by game →Arturs Silovs has started most of these meetings
Arturs Silovs played 2 of the last 5 meetings with Washington, with a .869 save percentage. Starters are confirmed on game day.
- Started 2 of 3 this season
- 38 of the team's last 82 starts
2026-27: 2 GP · .886 SV% · GSAx −1
Also possible: Murashov 30%
- Started 1 of 2 this season
- 57 of the team's last 82 starts
2026-27: 1 GP · .939 SV% · GSAx +2
Also possible: Lindgren 24%
Arturs Silovs
See all: Arturs Silovs →PIT · 2-0-0 in 2026-27 Expected starter · 70%
Also on the roster, 2026-27: Sergei Murashov .912 (1 GP)
Full game logLogan Thompson
See all: Logan Thompson →WSH · 1-0-0 in 2026-27 Expected starter · 76%
Also on the roster, 2026-27: Charlie Lindgren .931 (1 GP)
Full game logA total in line with the numbers
The board sits at 6.5. Both teams' scoring rates point to 6.5. The last 5 meetings averaged 7.6 goals and went over 4 times.
Goals in the last 5 meetings
Bar length is total goals, coloured by the winner; the red mark is tonight's line of 6.5.
Scoring rates
Pittsburgh5.002.673.573.27
Washington3.002.503.212.98Goals for and against per game. The estimate averages each team’s scoring with the other’s goals allowed, and leans on 2025-26 until a team has played 20 games.
Washington favoured on both sides of the border
US and Canadian books are kept apart because they are separate markets with different books and prices.
Moneyline by market
Pittsburgh41¢42¢40.8%Washington60¢62¢59.2%Pittsburgh43¢43¢39.7%Washington65¢65¢60.3%Snapshot 6 Oct, 4:11 PM ET
Lines on the board
Kalshi
Polymarket
ProphetX · BestSportsbook prices are shown as implied cents (100 ÷ decimal odds) so they compare directly with prediction-market prices. Fair = margin removed. Snapshot 7 Oct, 10:12 AM ET. "Best" is the cheapest price to buy Yes after venue fees. Prices are snapshots taken every 15 minutes (season futures hourly), not live. Prediction markets carry risk of loss and are not available in every jurisdiction. 18+/21+ where applicable. How markets work · Affiliate disclosure
Sidney Crosby is the likeliest to score a point, at 60%
What the venues price for individual players in this game, next to a rate from each player's scoring this season and last.
Snapshot 7 Oct, 10:12 AM ET. "From stats" is a Poisson rate from his points, goals or assists per game over this season and last combined; it knows nothing about tonight's lineup. "Best" is the cheapest price to buy Yes after venue fees. Prices are snapshots taken every 15 minutes (season futures hourly), not live. Prediction markets carry risk of loss and are not available in every jurisdiction. 18+/21+ where applicable. How markets work · Affiliate disclosure
6 on the injury lists
Pittsburgh · injuries
Washington · injuries
Latest moves
See all: Latest moves →Activated C/RW Benjamin Kindel from injured reserve. Placed C/LW David Gustafsson on waivers.
Assigned F Rutger McGroarty to Wilkes-Barre/Scranton (AHL).
Reinstated C Blake Lizotte from injured reserve.
Placed G Clay Stevenson, D Louie Belpedio, C Mike Brodzinski and RW Spencer Smallman on waivers. Released G Cal Petersen and D Jonathan McDonald from their professional tryout agreements. Assigned LW Maxim Schäfer to Cape Breton (QMJHL).
Placed G Clay Stevenson, D Louie Belpedio, C Mike Brodzinski and RW Spencer Smallman on waivers. Released G Cal Petersen from his professional tryout agreement.
Placed D Justin Holl on waivers for the purpose of being loaned to Hershey (AHL).
Pittsburgh · 2026 draft
See all: Pittsburgh · 2026 draft →Washington · 2026 draft
See all: Washington · 2026 draft →Wednesday 7 October · the full slate
See all: Wednesday 7 October · the full slate →
Updated after every final · Snapshot 6 Oct, 4:11 PM ET