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‹TUE OCT 6›
9 games, finals
TUEOCT 6
FINAL/OT
NSH4
TOR5
FINAL
CAR6
MTL4
FINAL
OTT3
DET5
FINAL
UTA5
NJD3
FINAL/OT
MIN2
BUF3
FINAL
NYI2
NYR5
FINAL
STL2
CHI4
FINAL
VGK6
SEA2
FINAL
FLA2
LAK1
RecapThis page was the preview until puck drop. Preview as published ↓Tuesday 6 October · Little Caesars Arena · Meeting No. 75
FINAL
By period
123T
Ottawa1113
Detroit2215
Pre-game favouriteDET 50.1%Won
First starD. Larkin1 G · 1 A
Game stats
25Shots36
2.5Expected goals4.1
1/5Power play2/5
31Hits28
16Blocks16
Full box score ↓
Recap · data desk

Faulk scores the winner as Detroit beat Ottawa 5-3

Detroit out-shot Ottawa 36-25 in a game with 1 lead change. The pre-game price had DET at 50.1%.

Pucks & Stats Data Desk 6 Oct

1st period: T. Stützle (OTT), A. DeBrincat (DET), D. Larkin (DET). 2nd period: V. Arvidsson (DET), J. Faulk (DET), D. Batherson (OTT). 3rd period: W. Eklund (OTT), A. DeBrincat (DET).

Alex DeBrincat led Detroit with 2 goals and 1 assist. John Gibson stopped 22 of 25 shots. On expected goals it was Detroit 4.1, Ottawa 2.5. On the power play Detroit went 2 for 5 and Ottawa 1 for 5.

Shots36-25Detroit first
Power play2/5Detroit
Lead changes1
DecidedRegulationWinner at 04:30

How it turned

1st period
02:44Tim Stützle (goal 3)Assists: D. Batherson, R. GreigEV1-0
03:16Alex DeBrincat (goal 1)Assists: N. Danielson, C. MazurEV1-1
13:14Dylan Larkin (goal 1)Assists: V. Arvidsson, A. DeBrincatEV1-2
2nd period
02:01Viktor Arvidsson (goal 2)Assists: D. Larkin, L. RaymondPP1-3
04:30Justin Faulk (goal 1)Assists: W. Wallinder, L. RaymondEV · GWG1-4
06:08Drake Batherson (goal 2)Assists: W. Eklund, C. YakemchukPP2-4
3rd period
10:30William Eklund (goal 1)Assists: F. Zetterlund, T. StützleEV3-4
19:10Alex DeBrincat (goal 2)Assists: L. Raymond, J. FaulkPP3-5

Where the goals came from

Ottawa attacking leftDetroit attacking right
GoalOn goalMissedBlocked

How the chances built

Ottawa 2.54 xGDetroit 4.14 xGDots are goals · hover for the shot
0123452nd3rd1st

Running total of expected goals for each team, regulation and overtime. A steep climb is a spell of good chances; a goal dot above the other line came against the run of play.

The market got this one

Market, pre-game50.1% DETCalled it
Last season's table50.9% OTTMissed
Total goals8Over 5.5
How each market settled ↓

What’s next

Ottawa host Philadelphia on Thursday 8 October. Detroit host Seattle on Friday 9 October.

Ottawa SenatorsDetroit Red Wings
Full game data

Box score

Detroit

#SkaterGAPSOG+/-FO%TOI
93Alex DeBrincat2133+2—18:45
23Lucas Raymond0336−1—19:47
71Dylan Larkin1124064.7%20:41
72Justin Faulk1123+3—18:21
33Viktor Arvidsson11230—17:20
54William Wallinder0110+2—9:07
29Nate Danielson0111+157.1%8:02
34Carter Mazur0111+1—7:25
53Moritz Seider0003−1—24:01
27Michael Rasmussen000000.0%20:05
18Andrew Copp0003054.2%18:24
58Emmitt Finnie0002010.0%18:17
8Ben Chiarot0001−1—18:14
42Anton Johansson0000+1—17:13
20Albert Johansson0003−1—17:00
55Keegan Kolesar00010—15:07
28Michael Brandsegg-Nygård00010—12:37
44Axel Sandin-Pellikka0001−1—11:27

Ottawa

#SkaterGAPSOG+/-FO%TOI
18Tim Stützle1122071.4%21:37
27William Eklund1123+1—20:09
19Drake Batherson11220—17:07
26Carter Yakemchuk0112−1—17:07
20Fabian Zetterlund0110+1—15:00
71Ridly Greig01120100.0%13:10
72Thomas Chabot00050—26:12
10Jordan Spence0001−1—22:29
24Dylan Cozens0001058.8%21:29
43Tyler Kleven0002−1—18:58
12Shane Pinto0001041.7%16:37
33Nikolas Matinpalo00020—16:35
22Michael Amadio0000−1—15:39
28Claude Giroux0000053.9%15:28
5Cameron Crotty0000+1—10:51
34Stephen Halliday0002−137.5%10:37
37Warren Foegele0000−1—8:51
21Nick Cousins0000−20.0%6:02
Markets

How each market settled

Market · closing priceMarketKalshiKalshiPolymarketPolyProphetXProphetXSettled
Detroit to winMoneyline52¢52¢52¢100¢
Ottawa to winMoneyline48¢49¢48¢0¢

Closing price = each venue’s midpoint at the last snapshot before puck drop. Settlement follows each venue’s rules; shown for information only. "Best" is the cheapest price to buy Yes after venue fees. Prices are snapshots taken every 15 minutes (season futures hourly), not live. Prediction markets carry risk of loss and are not available in every jurisdiction. 18+/21+ where applicable.

Before the game · as published 6 Oct, 2:14 PM ET
The thesisThe market backs Detroit, last season's table backs Ottawa
The thesis

The market backs Detroit, last season's table backs Ottawa

Ottawa finished last season 9th in the league on 99 points. Detroit finished 16th on 92, and the 2025-26 season series went DET 3-1-0.

With the bookmaker margin removed, 5 US books price Detroit at 50.1% at home. Last season's table, adjusted for home ice, would put them at 49.1%.

Where the market disagrees with the table

Table: 49.1% DETMarket: 50.1% DET

Table probability uses 2025-26 points percentage (.561 vs .604) with home-ice advantage. The market rates Detroit 0.9 points higher than last season's table does.

Method
Head-to-headMeeting number 75
Head-to-head

Meeting number 75

Across 74 completed games, Detroit lead the head-to-head 39-30-5.

All-time record39-30-5Detroit's record in the series
Meetings played74This is number 75
2025-26 seriesDET 3-1-0
Last 53-2Detroit

Last 5 meetings

See all: Last 5 meetings →
DateResultShotsPower playWinner
24 Mar 2026OTT 3 – DET 221–35OTT 1/2 · DET 1/4OTT
26 Feb 2026DET 2 – OTT 1 OT20–27DET 1/2 · OTT 1/2DET
18 Jan 2026OTT 3 – DET 4 OT22–34OTT 2/3 · DET 2/5DET
5 Jan 2026DET 5 – OTT 321–37DET 1/5 · OTT 1/6DET
27 Mar 2025OTT 4 – DET 332–34OTT 0/2 · DET 1/6OTT
Head-to-head finder

The table on each 2025-26 meeting night

DateOttawaDetroit
5 Jan 202620-16-5 · 45 pts20th25-15-4 · 54 pts4th
18 Jan 202622-19-7 · 51 pts21st30-16-4 · 64 pts4th
26 Feb 202624-21-7 · 55 pts25th32-16-5 · 69 pts4th
24 Mar 202638-24-9 · 85 pts11th38-25-8 · 84 pts13th

League rank after that night's games; a longer bar is a higher place. On 5 Jan 2026, Ottawa were 20th in the league and Detroit 4th. By 24 Mar 2026 it was 11th and 13th.

Special teamsPower play and penalty kill, season and series
Special teams

Power play and penalty kill, season and series

This season's rates first, then 2025-26 and the last meetings between the two. Power-play chances are counted from the penalty log with coincidental minors cancelled; faceoffs are each club's wins over draws taken.

All bars share one scale · 0–100%SeasonLast meetings

Ottawa

Small sample
Power play · 2026-270.0%
Power play · 2025-2624.0% · 8th
Power play · last 5 meetings5/15 · 33.3%
Penalty kill · 2026-2787.5%
Penalty kill · 2025-2675.7% · 29th
Faceoffs · 2026-2752.8% · 67/127
Drawn · 2026-278 (4.00/gm)
Drawn · last meetings15 (3.00/gm)
Shorthanded · 2026-278 (4.00/gm)
PP goals · last meetings5

Detroit

Small sample
Power play · 2026-2714.3%
Power play · 2025-2622.6% · 12th
Power play · last 5 meetings6/22 · 27.3%
Penalty kill · 2026-2750.0%
Penalty kill · 2025-2677.1% · 23rd
Faceoffs · 2026-2756.7% · 68/120
Drawn · 2026-277 (3.50/gm)
Drawn · last meetings22 (4.40/gm)
Shorthanded · 2026-278 (4.00/gm)
PP goals · last meetings6
Goaltending and injuriesJohn Gibson has started most of these meetings
Goaltending

John Gibson has started most of these meetings

John Gibson played 4 of the last 5 meetings with Ottawa, with a .907 save percentage. Starters are confirmed on game day.

Expected startersAn estimate until the teams confirmEvery game tonight →
Ottawa
Expected starter#30 Samuel Ersson
  • New to the team: 29 starts last season

2026-27: 1 GP · .889 SV% · GSAx −0

Injured: Ullmark (day-to-day)

Detroit
Expected starter#36 John Gibson
  • Started 2 of 2 this season
  • 58 of the team's last 82 starts

2026-27: 2 GP · .915 SV% · GSAx +1

Also possible: Tarasov 8%

Linus Ullmark

See all: Linus Ullmark →

OTT · 2-0-0 in 2026-27 Day-to-dayReturn 6 Oct

SV% · 2026-27.9492 GP · 1.20 GAA · 2025-26 .891
vs Detroit.9213 app · 89 SA · 7 GA
GSAx · 2026-27+3.42 starts · most on the roster
vs DETVenueSAGASV%
24 Mar 2026away352.943
26 Feb 2026home202.900
27 Mar 2025away343.912

Also on the roster, 2026-27: Samuel Ersson .889 (1 GP)

Full game log

John Gibson

See all: John Gibson →

DET · 0-2-0 in 2026-27 Expected starter · 92%

SV% · 2026-27.9152 GP · 2.07 GAA · 2025-26 .901
vs Ottawa.9074 app · 107 SA · 10 GA
GSAx · 2026-27+0.62 starts · most on the roster
vs OTTVenueSAGASV%
24 Mar 2026home213.857
26 Feb 2026away271.963
18 Jan 2026home223.864
5 Jan 2026away373.919
Full game log
Team news

13 on the injury lists

Ottawa · injuries

Andre BurakovskyUpper BodyIRReturn10 Oct
Artem ZubKneeIRReturn10 Oct
Blake MontgomeryUndisclosedIRReturn8 Oct
Jake SandersonLower BodyOutReturn8 Oct
Kurtis MacDermidUpper BodyIRReturn31 Oct
Linus UllmarkUndisclosedDay-to-dayReturn6 Oct

Detroit · injuries

Carter BearUpper BodyIRReturn10 Oct
Chase StillmanUndisclosedIRReturn9 Oct
J.T. CompherUndisclosedOutReturn9 Oct
Jacob Bernard-DockerUpper BodyIRReturn9 Oct
Marco KasperUpper BodyIRReturn20 Oct
Mason AppletonUndisclosedOutReturn13 Oct
Simon EdvinssonContract DisputeOutReturn10 Oct

Latest moves

See all: Latest moves →
5 Oct · OTT

Recalled D Donovan Sebrango from Belleville (AHL). Placed LW Andre Burakovsky on injured reserve.

2 Oct · OTT

Loaned D Hoyt Stanley to Belleville (AHL).

27 Sep · OTT

Placed LW Sammy Blais, C Philip Tomasino, D Samuel Bolduc, RW Xavier Bourgault, C Philippe Daoust, RW Tyler Boucher, C Ryan Suzuki, and D Christian Kyrou on waivers.

2 Oct · DET

Placed F Dylan Larkin on the non-roster injured reserve.

25 Sep · DET

Assigned Fs Ondrej Becher, Cameron Butler, Sheldon Dries, Noah Dower Nilsson, Dylan James, Jesse Kiiskinen, John Leonard, Sutter Muzzatti, Theo Rochette, Dominik Shine and Wilmer Skoog, Ds Ronnie Attard, Jacob Bryson, Shai Buium and William Lagesson and Gs Trey Augustine and Michal Postava to Grand Rapids (AHL).

20 Aug 2026 · DET

Acquired F Sutter Muzzatti from Nashville Predators for future considerations.

Injury report

Ottawa · 2026 draft

See all: Ottawa · 2026 draft →
#25Jonas Lagerberg HoenRound 1 · Leksand Jr.RW
#32Jaxon CoverRound 1 · LondonRW
#72Adam NemecRound 3 · SudburyLW
#87Oscar HolmertzRound 3 · Linkoping Jr.C
Full draft

Detroit · 2026 draft

See all: Detroit · 2026 draft →
#23Jeffrey (JP) HurlbertRound 1 · KamloopsLW
#47Victor PlanteRound 2 · Usa U-18LW
#79Michal OrsulakRound 3 · Prince AlbertG
#108Adam LevacRound 4 · PeterboroughC
Full draft

Tuesday 6 October · the full slate

See all: Tuesday 6 October · the full slate →
7:00 PM ETNSHatTOR7:00 PM ETCARatMTL7:00 PM ETOTTatDETThis game7:00 PM ETUTAatNJD7:00 PM ETMINatBUF7:30 PM ETNYIatNYR8:00 PM ETSTLatCHI9:40 PM ETVGKatSEA10:00 PM ETFLAatLAK
Scores
Shots, skaters, totals and marketsDetroit out-attempted Ottawa 295 to 288
Where the shots come from · last 5 meetings

Detroit out-attempted Ottawa 295 to 288

Every attempt from the last meetings, both teams shooting right.

Ottawa Senators

288 att · 139 on goal · 14 G · 10.1%
Crease25 att · 4 G
Slot115 att · 9 G
Wing95 att · 1 G
Point46 att · 0 G
Neutral zone7 att · 0 G

Detroit Red Wings

295 att · 144 on goal · 16 G · 11.1%
Crease23 att · 2 G
Slot97 att · 9 G
Wing120 att · 4 G
Point46 att · 1 G
Neutral zone9 att · 0 G
GoalOn goalMissedBlocked
Skaters

Lucas Raymond has 7 points in the last 5 meetings

Left, production across the last meetings. Right, each club's scoring leaders this season, with 2025-26 one tap away.

In the last meetings

See all: In the last meetings →
PlayerGPGAPSOG
23Lucas Raymond534712
71Dylan Larkin541516
8Brady Tkachuk532515
93Alex DeBrincat514518
18Tim Stützle51458
James van Riemsdyk42246
19Drake Batherson513412
18Andrew Copp41234
20Fabian Zetterlund50338
24Dylan Cozens520216
Head-to-head finder

Season leaders

See all: Season leaders →
PlayerGPGPP/GP
18Tim Stützle2242.00
22Michael Amadio2231.50
72Thomas Chabot2121.00
28Claude Giroux2021.00
12Shane Pinto2021.00
33Viktor Arvidsson2110.50
58Emmitt Finnie2110.50
18Andrew Copp2010.50
93Alex DeBrincat2010.50
53Moritz Seider2010.50
Skater stats

Lucas Raymond vs Ottawa · game by game

See all: Lucas Raymond vs Ottawa · game by game →
DateVenueGAPSOGTOI
24 Mar 2026home011122:04
26 Feb 2026away022420:42
18 Jan 2026home101214:21
5 Jan 2026away101314:18
27 Mar 2025home112221:10
Last 5 meetings7 P3 G, 4 A · 12 SOG
Next best5 PDylan Larkin, DET
2026-27 season0 P2 GP · 0 G
Blank vs OTT0 of 5A point in every meeting
Full game log
Totals

A total in line with recent meetings

The board sits at 5.5. The last 5 meetings averaged 6.0 goals and went over 5.5 3 times.

line 5.5
0123456789
Dot colour: the winner of that meeting · goals per game
Last 5 avg6.0Goals per game
Over 5.53 of 5
Books at the line4Posting 5.5
Lowest3 goals
Prediction markets

Two markets, one coin flip

US and Canadian books are kept apart because they are separate markets with different books and prices.

Moneyline by market

SelectionBestAvgFair
United States · 5 books
Ottawa51¢52¢50.0%
Detroit51¢52¢50.1%
Canada · 1 book
Ottawa55¢55¢50.9%
Detroit53¢53¢49.1%

Snapshot 5 Oct, 4:01 PM ET

Lines on the board

Puck line DET +1.55 books
Puck line OTT -1.55 books
Total 5.54 books
Total 6.01 book

Sportsbook prices are shown as implied cents (100 ÷ decimal odds) so they compare directly with prediction-market prices. Fair = margin removed. Snapshot 6 Oct, 12:57 PM ET Delayed · 1 hr. "Best" is the cheapest price to buy Yes after venue fees. Prices are snapshots taken every 15 minutes (season futures hourly), not live. Prediction markets carry risk of loss and are not available in every jurisdiction. 18+/21+ where applicable. How markets work · Affiliate disclosure

Updated after every final · Closing 5 Oct, 4:01 PM ET