NHL team scoring and expected points

How to read it

A team's record, its goal difference and its chances should tell the same story. When they do not, the gap is usually finishing, goaltending, overtime or one-goal games, and those tend to even out over a season. Expected points from xG is the most forward-looking of the three.

GP

Games played this season.

GF

Goals for.

GA

Goals against.

GD

Goal difference.

GF/GP

Goals for per game.

GA/GP

Goals against per game.

GD PTS

The points a team's goal difference is worth: GF^1.8 ÷ (GF^1.8 + GA^1.8) × 2 × GP × 1.115, the league's points a game.

xPTS

Expected points from expected goals: xGF^1.8 ÷ (xGF^1.8 + xGA^1.8) × 2 × GP × 1.115, the league's points a game. The record a team's chances deserve.

PTS

Points.

Luck

Points minus expected points: what finishing, goaltending, overtime and one-goal games have added or taken away.

How expected goals are built, and how well the model predicts, is on the methodology page.