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‹FRI OCT 2›
5 games, finals
FRIOCT 2
FINAL
NYR2
DET0
FINAL
WSH5
CAR2
FINAL/OT
BOS4
WPG3
FINAL
STL4
DAL0
FINAL
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RecapThis page was the preview until puck drop. Preview as published ↓Friday 2 October · Lenovo Center · Meeting No. 154
FINAL
By period
123T
Washington3205
Carolina0112
Pre-game favouriteCAR 56.7%Lost
First starA. Tuch2 G · 0 A
Game stats
27Shots33
2.6Expected goals4.0
1/2Power play1/6
19Hits32
28Blocks9
Full box score ↓
Recap · data desk

Tuch scores the winner as Washington beat Carolina 5-2

Carolina out-shot Washington 33-27. The pre-game price had CAR at 56.7%.

Pucks & Stats Data Desk 2 Oct

1st period: A. Tuch (WSH), C. Hutson (WSH), A. Tuch (WSH). 2nd period: J. Chychrun (WSH), S. Aho (CAR), R. Leonard (WSH). 3rd period: L. Stankoven (CAR).

Alex Tuch led Washington with 2 goals. Logan Thompson stopped 31 of 33 shots. On expected goals it was Washington 2.6, Carolina 4.0. The chances favoured the side that lost. On the power play Washington went 1 for 2 and Carolina 1 for 6.

Shots27-33Washington first
Power play1/2Washington
Lead changes0
DecidedRegulationWinner at 14:23

How it turned

1st period
06:33Alex Tuch (goal 1)Assists: P. Dubois, A. OvechkinEV1-0
11:33Cole Hutson (goal 1)Assists: I. Protas, A. ProtasEV2-0
14:23Alex Tuch (goal 2)Assists: P. Dubois, T. WilsonEV · GWG3-0
2nd period
01:36Jakob Chychrun (goal 1)Assists: D. StromePP4-0
16:50Sebastian Aho (goal 1)Assists: A. Svechnikov, J. BlakePP4-1
16:58Ryan Leonard (goal 1)Assists: D. Strome, J. ChychrunEV5-1
3rd period
10:50Logan Stankoven (goal 1)Assists: K. Miller, W. CarrierEV5-2

Where the goals came from

Washington attacking leftCarolina attacking right
GoalOn goalMissedBlocked

How the chances built

Washington 2.62 xGCarolina 3.97 xGDots are goals · hover for the shot
00.511.522.533.542nd3rd1st

Running total of expected goals for each team, regulation and overtime. A steep climb is a spell of good chances; a goal dot above the other line came against the run of play.

The upset

Market, pre-game56.7% CARMissed
Last season's table65.2% CARMissed
Total goals7Over 6.0
How each market settled ↓

What’s next

Washington host Pittsburgh on Wednesday 7 October. Carolina host Vancouver on Thursday 8 October.

Washington CapitalsCarolina Hurricanes
Full game data

Box score

Washington

#SkaterGAPSOG+/-FO%TOI
89Alex Tuch2023+225.0%16:38
6Jakob Chychrun1123+1—18:51
17Dylan Strome0222061.5%13:11
80Pierre-Luc Dubois0221+253.9%12:08
44Cole Hutson1013+2—17:08
9Ryan Leonard1013+1—12:08
21Aliaksei Protas0112+166.7%17:36
43Tom Wilson0110+1—16:37
8Alex Ovechkin0111+1—12:46
62Ilya Protas0110+120.0%11:32
3Matt Roy00000—22:29
73Vincent Desharnais0000+2—21:15
42Martin Fehérváry00010—19:29
27Timothy Liljegren0000+1—18:48
22Boone Jenner0003076.5%16:18
72Anthony Beauvillier00030—13:55
34Justin Sourdif000000.0%13:00
25Jordan Kyrou00020—12:16

Carolina

#SkaterGAPSOG+/-FO%TOI
22Logan Stankoven1014−123.1%20:15
20Sebastian Aho1012063.6%18:39
19K'Andre Miller0110−1—22:11
37Andrei Svechnikov01160—19:51
53Jackson Blake0113−1—19:27
28William Carrier01110—11:30
4Shayne Gostisbehere0000−1—22:40
26Sean Walker0002−2—19:05
27Nikolaj Ehlers0004−2—19:02
74Jaccob Slavin00040—18:32
5Jalen Chatfield0000−2—17:33
11Jordan Staal0003−152.4%14:54
71Taylor Hall0001−2100.0%13:34
48Jordan Martinook00020100.0%12:47
77Mark Jankowski0000−146.2%12:35
50Eric Robinson00000—11:44
62Charles Alexis Legault00010—11:07
44Nicolas Deslauriers0000−1—9:25
Markets

How each market settled

Market · closing priceMarketKalshiKalshiPolymarketPolyProphetXProphetXSettled
Carolina to winMoneyline58¢58¢58¢0¢
Washington to winMoneyline43¢43¢42¢100¢

Closing price = each venue’s midpoint at the last snapshot before puck drop. Settlement follows each venue’s rules; shown for information only. "Best" is the cheapest price to buy Yes after venue fees. Prices are snapshots taken every 15 minutes (season futures hourly), not live. Prediction markets carry risk of loss and are not available in every jurisdiction. 18+/21+ where applicable.

Before the game · as published 2 Oct, 6:05 PM ET
The thesisCarolina favoured at 56.7%
The thesis

Carolina favoured at 56.7%

Washington finished last season 12th in the league on 95 points. Carolina finished 2nd on 113, and the 2025-26 season series went WSH 2-0-1.

With the bookmaker margin removed, 9 US books price Carolina at 56.7% at home. Last season's table, adjusted for home ice, would put them at 65.2%.

Where the market disagrees with the table

Table: 65.2% CARMarket: 56.7% CAR

Table probability uses 2025-26 points percentage (.689 vs .579) with home-ice advantage. The market rates Carolina 8.5 points lower than last season's table does.

Method
Head-to-headMeeting number 154
Head-to-head

Meeting number 154

Across 153 completed games, Washington lead the head-to-head 88-50-15.

All-time record88-50-15Washington's record in the series
Meetings played153This is number 154
2025-26 seriesWSH 2-0-1
Last 53-2Carolina

Last 5 meetings

See all: Last 5 meetings →
DateResultShotsPower playWinner
31 Jan 2026CAR 3 – WSH 4 OT22–42CAR 0/2 · WSH 0/4WSH
11 Dec 2025CAR 3 – WSH 2 SO39–25CAR 0/2 · WSH 0/1CAR
11 Nov 2025WSH 4 – CAR 128–31WSH 1/5 · CAR 0/5WSH
15 May 2025CAR 3 – WSH 122–19CAR 0/2 · WSH 0/3CAR
12 May 2025WSH 2 – CAR 521–38WSH 1/4 · CAR 0/3CAR
Head-to-head finder

The table on each 2025-26 meeting night

DateWashingtonCarolina
11 Nov 20258-7-1 · 17 pts24th11-5-0 · 22 pts5th
11 Dec 202518-9-4 · 40 pts4th19-9-2 · 40 pts3rd
31 Jan 202625-21-7 · 57 pts19th32-15-5 · 69 pts3rd

League rank after that night's games; a longer bar is a higher place. On 11 Nov 2025, Washington were 24th in the league and Carolina 5th. By 31 Jan 2026 it was 19th and 3rd.

Special teamsPower play and penalty kill, season and series
Special teams

Power play and penalty kill, season and series

This season's rates first, then 2025-26 and the last meetings between the two. Power-play chances are counted from the penalty log with coincidental minors cancelled; faceoffs are each club's wins over draws taken.

All bars share one scale · 0–100%SeasonLast meetings

Washington

Power play · 2026-27No games yet
Power play · 2025-2617.8% · 25th
Power play · last 5 meetings2/17 · 11.8%
Penalty kill · 2026-27No games yet
Penalty kill · 2025-2680.1% · 14th
Faceoffs · 2025-2649.5% · 1,802/3,639
Drawn · 2025-26241 (2.94/gm)
Drawn · last meetings17 (3.40/gm)
Shorthanded · 2025-26251 (3.06/gm)
PP goals · last meetings2

Carolina

Small sample
Power play · 2026-270.0%
Power play · 2025-2624.9% · 4th
Power play · last 5 meetings0/14 · 0.0%
Penalty kill · 2026-27100.0%
Penalty kill · 2025-2680.5% · 11th
Faceoffs · 2026-2756.9% · 33/58
Drawn · 2026-276 (6.00/gm)
Drawn · last meetings14 (2.80/gm)
Shorthanded · 2026-277 (7.00/gm)
PP goals · last meetings0
Goaltending and injuriesLogan Thompson has started most of these meetings
Goaltending

Logan Thompson has started most of these meetings

Logan Thompson played 4 of the last 5 meetings with Carolina, with a .930 save percentage. Starters are confirmed on game day.

Expected startersAn estimate until the teams confirmEvery game tonight →
Washington
Expected starter#48 Logan Thompson
  • First game of the season
  • 58 of the team's last 82 starts

2025-26: 58 GP · .912 SV% · GSAx +37

Also possible: Lindgren 26%

Carolina
Expected starter#32 Brandon Bussi
  • Started 1 of 1 this season
  • 40 of the team's last 82 starts

2026-27: 1 GP · .950 SV% · GSAx +1

Also possible: Kochetkov 7% · Primeau 7%

Logan Thompson

See all: Logan Thompson →

WSH · 31-21-6 in 2025-26 Expected starter · 74%

SV% · 2025-26.91258 GP · 2.44 GAA
vs Carolina.9304 app · 128 SA · 9 GA
GSAx · 2025-26+37.158 starts · most on the roster
vs CARVenueSAGASV%
11 Dec 2025home392.949
11 Nov 2025away311.968
15 May 2025home212.905
12 May 2025away374.892

Also on the roster, 2025-26: Charlie Lindgren .879 (21 GP) · Clay Stevenson .921 (4 GP)

Full game log

Carolina crease

CAR · 2026-27 Expected: Bussi · 86%

Brandon Bussi.9501 GP · 0-0-1 · GSAx +0.7
#vs WSHAppsSAGASV%
32Brandon Bussi1252.920
Team news

4 on the injury lists

Washington · injuries

Patrick ThomasUpper BodyIRReturn3 Oct
Rasmus SandinKneeIRReturn26 Dec

Carolina · injuries

Alexander NikishinContract DisputeOutReturn10 Oct
Seth JarvisShoulderIRReturn24 Oct

Latest moves

See all: Latest moves →
27 Sep · WSH

Placed G Clay Stevenson, D Louie Belpedio, C Mike Brodzinski and RW Spencer Smallman on waivers. Released G Cal Petersen and D Jonathan McDonald from their professional tryout agreements. Assigned LW Maxim Schäfer to Cape Breton (QMJHL).

27 Sep · WSH

Placed G Clay Stevenson, D Louie Belpedio, C Mike Brodzinski and RW Spencer Smallman on waivers. Released G Cal Petersen from his professional tryout agreement.

26 Sep · WSH

Placed D Justin Holl on waivers for the purpose of being loaned to Hershey (AHL).

30 Sep · CAR

Placed G Cayden Primeau on waivers.

27 Sep · CAR

Placed C Seth Jarvis on the injured non-roster list. Placed LD Juuso Valimaki on waivers.

27 Sep · CAR

Placed C Seth Jarvis on the injured non-roster list. Placed D Juuso Valimaki on waivers.

Injury report

Washington · 2026 draft

See all: Washington · 2026 draft →
#18Oliver SuvantoRound 1 · TapparaC
#101Tyus SparksRound 4 · SpokaneC
#144Brian McFaddenRound 5 · Thayer AcademyD
#208Logan StuartRound 7 · Usa U-18C
Full draft

Carolina · 2026 draft

See all: Carolina · 2026 draft →
#51William HakanssonRound 2 · LuleaD
#61Wiggo SorenssonRound 2 · Boro/vetlandaC
#68Zachary LansardRound 3 · ReginaRW
#105Michael BerchildRound 4 · Usa U-18LW
Full draft

Friday 2 October · the full slate

See all: Friday 2 October · the full slate →
6:30 PM ETNYR at DET7:00 PM ETWSH at CARThis8:00 PM ETBOS at WPG9:00 PM ETSTL at DAL10:00 PM ETANA at VGK
Scores
Shots, skaters, totals and marketsCarolina out-attempted Washington 339 to 289
Where the shots come from · last 5 meetings

Carolina out-attempted Washington 339 to 289

Every attempt from the last meetings, both teams shooting right.

Washington Capitals

289 att · 135 on goal · 13 G · 9.6%
Crease27 att · 3 G
Slot121 att · 7 G
Wing96 att · 2 G
Point37 att · 0 G
Neutral zone8 att · 1 G

Carolina Hurricanes

339 att · 152 on goal · 14 G · 9.2%
Crease22 att · 2 G
Slot116 att · 7 G
Wing135 att · 4 G
Point56 att · 1 G
Neutral zone10 att · 0 G
GoalOn goalMissedBlocked
Skaters

Jakob Chychrun has 5 points in the last 5 meetings

Left, production across the last meetings. Right, each club's scoring leaders this season, with 2025-26 one tap away.

In the last meetings

See all: In the last meetings →
PlayerGPGAPSOG
6Jakob Chychrun532519
8Alex Ovechkin522414
24Seth Jarvis521320
27Nikolaj Ehlers321311
17Dylan Strome52139
4Shayne Gostisbehere52137
11Jordan Staal51239
26Sean Walker51238
74John Carlson50337
48Jordan Martinook50336
Head-to-head finder

Season leaders

See all: Season leaders →
PlayerGPGPP/GP
11Jordan Staal1000.00
44Nicolas Deslauriers1000.00
71Taylor Hall1000.00
77Mark Jankowski1000.00
4Shayne Gostisbehere1000.00

Washington: no games yet this season.

Skater stats

Jakob Chychrun vs Carolina · game by game

See all: Jakob Chychrun vs Carolina · game by game →
DateVenueGAPSOGTOI
31 Jan 2026home112628:02
11 Dec 2025home000125:27
11 Nov 2025away101519:09
15 May 2025home000422:52
12 May 2025away112325:52
Last 5 meetings5 P3 G, 2 A · 19 SOG
Next best4 PAlex Ovechkin, WSH
2025-26 season60 P80 GP · 26 G
Blank vs CAR2 of 5
Full game log
Totals

A total in line with recent meetings

The board sits at 6.0. The last 5 meetings averaged 5.6 goals and went over 6.0 2 times.

line 6.0
0123456789
Dot colour: the winner of that meeting · goals per game
Last 5 avg5.6Goals per game
Over 6.02 of 5
Books at the line6Posting 6.0
Lowest4 goals
Prediction markets

Carolina favoured on both sides of the border

US and Canadian books are kept apart because they are separate markets with different books and prices.

Moneyline by market

SelectionBestAvgFair
United States · 9 books
Washington44¢45¢43.4%
Carolina58¢59¢56.7%
Canada · 2 books
Washington46¢46¢43.8%
Carolina59¢59¢56.2%

Snapshot 2 Oct, 4:03 PM ET

Lines on the board

Puck line CAR -1.59 books
Puck line WSH +1.59 books
Total 6.06 books
Total 6.53 books

Sportsbook prices are shown as implied cents (100 ÷ decimal odds) so they compare directly with prediction-market prices. Fair = margin removed. Snapshot 2 Oct, 6:05 PM ET. "Best" is the cheapest price to buy Yes after venue fees. Prices are snapshots taken every 15 minutes (season futures hourly), not live. Prediction markets carry risk of loss and are not available in every jurisdiction. 18+/21+ where applicable. How markets work · Affiliate disclosure

Updated after every final · Closing 2 Oct, 4:03 PM ET