Philadelphia swept the series. The market still backs New Jersey

Last season’s table points one way. Philadelphia finished on 98 points, 11th in the league and third in the Metropolitan, and made the playoffs. New Jersey finished on 87, 21st, and missed them.

And yet, with the margin stripped out, five US sportsbooks make New Jersey a 59% favourite at the Prudential Center tonight. The prediction markets go a little further: 63¢ on Kalshi and Polymarket and 64¢ on ProphetX for a Devils win, about 62% once the spread is split. The shot numbers explain most of it.

The table says Philadelphia. The price says New Jersey.

Convert last season’s points percentages into a head-to-head chance and add home ice, and New Jersey comes out at 47%. The market has the Devils at 59%. That 12-point gap is the largest on tonight’s eight-game slate.

Home win probability, two ways

All 8 games →

From last season’s tableMarket, margin removed

PHIatNJD+14

TBLatNYR+7

BUFatCBJ+6

MINatNSH0

SEAatCGY−2

CHIatUTA+1

EDMatVAN+2

FLAatSJS−12

Part of the Flyers’ total came from the shootout. Ten of their 43 wins were shootout wins, the most in the league, and those results rarely repeat from one season to the next.

Shot volume tells a different story

Philadelphia’s points came with a thin shot count. The Flyers averaged 25.5 shots a game last season, fifth-fewest in the NHL; New Jersey averaged 29.6. Philadelphia converted 12.0% of its shots, seventh-best, while New Jersey’s 9.5% was second-lowest. Gaps that wide in shooting percentage rarely hold.

Special teams lean the same way. Philadelphia’s power play converted 15.7%, the lowest rate in the league; New Jersey’s ran at 22.0%. The Flyers’ advantage came at even strength, where they finished +21 against the Devils’ −32.

Philadelphia2025-26New Jersey

98Points87

3.05GF / GP2.80

2.96GA / GP3.10

15.7%PP%22.0%

77.6%PK%79.3%

25.46Shots / GP29.59

PP%: Philadelphia 15.7%, New Jersey 22.0%. New Jersey ahead.

What the rivalry says

Philadelphia took all three meetings last season: 6-3 at home in November, then 5-3 and 5-1 in Newark. Over the long run, New Jersey leads the regular-season ledger 148-107-19 across 274 games.

Last five meetings

Team rivals →

DateGameScoreEnded

7 Apr 2026PhiladelphiaatNew Jersey5-1Final

29 Nov 2025PhiladelphiaatNew Jersey5-3Final

22 Nov 2025New JerseyatPhiladelphia3-6Final

9 Mar 2025New JerseyatPhiladelphia3-1Final

29 Jan 2025PhiladelphiaatNew Jersey0-5Final

The skater who owned the fixture wears orange. Trevor Zegras scored in all three meetings, four goals and six points in total. For New Jersey, Jack Hughes led the club with 77 points.

Opening night did not help

Philadelphia’s season started with a 7-0 home loss to Pittsburgh on Wednesday. One game proves little, but it fits the shot numbers rather than the table. New Jersey plays its first game tonight.

The table rewards what Philadelphia did last season; the price leans on how the Flyers did it. Tonight is the first meeting that counts toward finding out which matters more.

Metropolitan · 2025-26 final

Full standings →

#TeamGPPTSDiff

1Carolina82113+56

2Pittsburgh8298+25

3Philadelphia8298+7

4Washington8295+19

5Columbus82920

6NY Islanders8291−8

7New Jersey8287−24

8NY Rangers8277−12