A week into the season, the Calder Trophy market has a clear order and no evidence for it yet. Polymarket, the only venue listing the award so far, prices Gavin McKenna at 35¢. Roman Kantserov and Ivar Stenberg are at 27¢, Porter Martone at 17¢. Between them, the four have played seven games and have no points.
The favourites
- Gavin McKenna, Toronto (35¢). The first pick in the 2026 draft has played two games at 15:26 a night. He turned 18 in December. His first two nights are covered in our story on his start.
- Roman Kantserov, Chicago (27¢). A 2023 second-round pick, 44th overall, now 22. He has played both of Chicago’s games at 16:52 a night, more than any of the four, in a 5-2 loss at Vegas and a 6-0 loss in Utah.
- Ivar Stenberg, San Jose (27¢). The second pick in June turned 19 on 30 September and made his debut the next night, 13:35 in a 4-3 overtime win over Florida.
- Porter Martone, Philadelphia (17¢). The sixth pick in 2025 played ten games last season, few enough to stay a rookie, and has played both of Philadelphia’s so far at 13:16 a night.
Washington defenceman Cole Hutson and Anaheim centre Roger McQueen are both at 15¢ and have yet to play. Winnipeg’s Viggo Björck, the eighth pick in June, is at 12¢.
Who has scored
Konsta Helenius, the 14th pick in 2024, scored in Buffalo’s 6-3 loss at Columbus and is the only rookie the market prices who has a goal. He is at 14¢. Vegas’s Trevor Connelly, who is not priced, also scored in a 5-2 win over Chicago.
The rookie with the most points is not in the race. Pittsburgh’s Filip Hallander had a goal and two assists in the 7-0 win in Philadelphia, but he turned 26 in June, and a player who is 26 by 15 September cannot win the Calder.
Why the prices sit where they do
With no production to price, the market is pricing role and draft position. McKenna and Stenberg went first and second in June; Kantserov is getting the most ice time of the four. Calder voting usually follows scoring, so these prices will move as soon as the points arrive.
Every rookie who has played, with games, points and ice time, is on the rookies page. The full market, venue by venue, is on the Calder Trophy odds page.
