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‹TUE OCT 6›
9 games, finals
TUEOCT 6
FINAL/OT
NSH4
TOR5
FINAL
CAR6
MTL4
FINAL
OTT3
DET5
FINAL
UTA5
NJD3
FINAL/OT
MIN2
BUF3
FINAL
NYI2
NYR5
FINAL
STL2
CHI4
FINAL
VGK6
SEA2
FINAL
FLA2
LAK1
RecapThis page was the preview until puck drop. Preview as published ↓Tuesday 6 October · KeyBank Center · Meeting No. 37
FINAL/OTWinner at 04:22 of overtime
By period
123OTT
Minnesota02002
Buffalo00213
Pre-game favouriteBUF 50%Won
First starO. Power1 G · 1 A
Game stats
20Shots28
1.8Expected goals3.7
1/4Power play0/2
26Hits12
17Blocks16
Full box score ↓
Recap · data desk

Power ends it in overtime as Buffalo beat Minnesota 3-2

Buffalo out-shot Minnesota 28-20 in a game with 1 lead change. The pre-game price had BUF at 50%.

Pucks & Stats Data Desk 6 Oct

2nd period: D. Yurov (MIN), M. Shabanov (MIN). 3rd period: N. Ostlund (BUF), T. Thompson (BUF). Overtime: O. Power (BUF).

Tage Thompson led Buffalo with 1 goal and 1 assist. Colten Ellis stopped 18 of 20 shots. On expected goals it was Buffalo 3.7, Minnesota 1.8. On the power play Buffalo went 0 for 2 and Minnesota 1 for 4.

Shots28-20Buffalo first
Power play0/2Buffalo
Lead changes1
DecidedOvertimeWinner at 04:22

How it turned

2nd period
13:53Danila Yurov (goal 1)Assists: J. Spurgeon, B. ColemanPP1-0
15:38Maxim Shabanov (goal 1)Assists: Q. Hughes, M. McCarronEV2-0
3rd period
03:55Noah Ostlund (goal 1)Assists: O. Power, R. DahlinEV2-1
09:38Tage Thompson (goal 2)Assists: P. KrebsEV2-2
Overtime
04:22Owen Power (goal 1)Assists: J.Kulich, T. ThompsonOT · GWG2-3

Where the goals came from

Minnesota attacking leftBuffalo attacking right
GoalOn goalMissedBlocked

How the chances built

Minnesota 1.80 xGBuffalo 3.72 xGDots are goals · hover for the shot
00.511.522.533.542nd3rdOT1st

Running total of expected goals for each team, regulation and overtime. A steep climb is a spell of good chances; a goal dot above the other line came against the run of play.

The market got this one

Market, pre-game50% BUFCalled it
Last season's table56.8% BUFCalled it
Total goals5Under 6.5
How each market settled ↓

What’s next

Minnesota visit Tampa Bay on Thursday 8 October. Buffalo host Dallas on Thursday 8 October.

Minnesota WildBuffalo Sabres
Full game data

Box score

Buffalo

#SkaterGAPSOG+/-FO%TOI
25Owen Power1122+3—29:04
72Tage Thompson1129+140.0%20:23
86Noah Ostlund1012+155.6%20:39
26Rasmus Dahlin0113+1—29:15
19Peyton Krebs0111+1100.0%15:21
20Jiri Kulich0112+240.0%13:56
23Mattias Samuelsson00020—22:41
22Jack Quinn0002+1—21:45
6Zach Benson0002+1—20:41
9Josh Norris0000062.5%16:44
8Olen Zellweger00000—14:52
46Louis Crevier0002−1—14:19
71Ryan McLeod0001077.8%14:15
94Konsta Helenius000000.0%13:01
91Josh Doan0000−1—12:05
73Zach Metsa00000—10:44
29Beck Malenstyn0000−1—8:28
15Justin Danforth0000057.1%8:17

Minnesota

#SkaterGAPSOG+/-FO%TOI
49Maxim Shabanov1012+1—17:30
22Danila Yurov1012033.3%14:21
43Quinn Hughes01110—29:30
46Jared Spurgeon0110−2—21:49
20Blake Coleman0111−250.0%17:44
47Michael McCarron0110+147.4%15:16
97Kirill Kaprizov0003−1—24:58
12Matt Boldy0007−233.3%23:24
14Joel Eriksson Ek0000−150.0%20:26
25Jonas Brodin0001−1—19:18
3Olli Maatta0000−1—19:18
24Zach Bogosian0000+1—14:12
48Daemon Hunt00000—14:08
38Ryan Hartman0000−150.0%13:40
10Bobby Brink0002−1—13:34
17Marcus Foligno0001+1—13:25
13Yakov Trenin000000.0%13:04
71Nick Foligno00000—3:29
Markets

How each market settled

Market · closing priceMarketKalshiKalshiPolymarketPolyProphetXProphetXSettled
Buffalo to winMoneyline50¢49¢50¢100¢
Minnesota to winMoneyline51¢52¢50¢0¢

Closing price = each venue’s midpoint at the last snapshot before puck drop. Settlement follows each venue’s rules; shown for information only. "Best" is the cheapest price to buy Yes after venue fees. Prices are snapshots taken every 15 minutes (season futures hourly), not live. Prediction markets carry risk of loss and are not available in every jurisdiction. 18+/21+ where applicable.

Before the game · as published 6 Oct, 2:14 PM ET
The thesisBuffalo favoured at 50%
The thesis

Buffalo favoured at 50%

Minnesota finished last season 7th in the league on 104 points. Buffalo finished 4th on 109, and the 2025-26 season series went MIN 1-0-1.

With the bookmaker margin removed, 8 US books price Buffalo at 50% at home. Last season's table, adjusted for home ice, would put them at 56.8%.

Where the market disagrees with the table

Table: 56.8% BUFMarket: 50% BUF

Table probability uses 2025-26 points percentage (.665 vs .634) with home-ice advantage. The market rates Buffalo 6.8 points lower than last season's table does.

Method
Head-to-headMeeting number 37
Head-to-head

Meeting number 37

Across 36 completed games, Minnesota lead the head-to-head 19-10-7.

All-time record19-10-7Minnesota's record in the series
Meetings played36This is number 37
2025-26 seriesMIN 1-0-1
Last 53-2Minnesota

Last 5 meetings

See all: Last 5 meetings →
DateResultShotsPower playWinner
17 Jan 2026MIN 5 – BUF 4 OT36–24MIN 1/4 · BUF 1/4MIN
29 Nov 2025BUF 3 – MIN 2 SO33–24BUF 0/3 · MIN 0/3BUF
22 Mar 2025BUF 1 – MIN 421–21BUF 0/2 · MIN 0/2MIN
27 Nov 2024MIN 1 – BUF 030–39MIN 0/0 · BUF 0/2MIN
17 Feb 2024BUF 3 – MIN 2 OT28–32BUF 0/3 · MIN 1/3BUF
Head-to-head finder

The table on each 2025-26 meeting night

DateMinnesotaBuffalo
29 Nov 202514-7-5 · 33 pts5th10-11-4 · 24 pts29th
17 Jan 202627-13-9 · 63 pts4th26-16-5 · 57 pts10th

League rank after that night's games; a longer bar is a higher place. On 29 Nov 2025, Minnesota were 5th in the league and Buffalo 29th. By 17 Jan 2026 it was 4th and 10th.

Special teamsPower play and penalty kill, season and series
Special teams

Power play and penalty kill, season and series

This season's rates first, then 2025-26 and the last meetings between the two. Power-play chances are counted from the penalty log with coincidental minors cancelled; faceoffs are each club's wins over draws taken.

All bars share one scale · 0–100%SeasonLast meetings

Minnesota

Small sample
Power play · 2026-2742.9%
Power play · 2025-2625.2% · 3rd
Power play · last 5 meetings2/12 · 16.7%
Penalty kill · 2026-27100.0%
Penalty kill · 2025-2679.8% · 16th
Faceoffs · 2026-2749.6% · 60/121
Drawn · 2026-277 (3.50/gm)
Drawn · last meetings12 (2.40/gm)
Shorthanded · 2026-277 (3.50/gm)
PP goals · last meetings2

Buffalo

Small sample
Power play · 2026-270.0%
Power play · 2025-2619.5% · 21st
Power play · last 5 meetings1/14 · 7.1%
Penalty kill · 2026-2760.0%
Penalty kill · 2025-2681.9% · 4th
Faceoffs · 2026-2748.4% · 61/126
Drawn · 2026-278 (4.00/gm)
Drawn · last meetings14 (2.80/gm)
Shorthanded · 2026-275 (2.50/gm)
PP goals · last meetings1
Goaltending and injuriesUkko-Pekka Luukkonen has been the difference
Goaltending

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen has been the difference

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen faced 118 shots across 4 appearances against Minnesota and conceded 11, a .907 save percentage against a season figure of .784. Starters are confirmed on game day.

Expected startersAn estimate until the teams confirmEvery game tonight →
Minnesota
Expected starter#30 Jesper Wallstedt
  • Started 2 of 2 this season
  • 35 of the team's last 82 starts

2026-27: 2 GP · .957 SV% · GSAx +3

Also possible: Pickard 8%

Injured: Gustavsson (injured reserve)

Buffalo
Expected starter#1 Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
  • Started 2 of 2 this season
  • 36 of the team's last 82 starts

2026-27: 2 GP · .784 SV% · GSAx −4

Also possible: Ellis 10%

Injured: Lyon (injured reserve)

Filip Gustavsson

See all: Filip Gustavsson →

MIN · 28-15-6 in 2025-26 IRReturn 1 Nov

SV% · 2025-26.90450 GP · 2.69 GAA
vs Buffalo.9315 app · 145 SA · 10 GA
GSAx · 2025-26+1.449 starts
vs BUFVenueSAGASV%
17 Jan 2026away244.833
29 Nov 2025home332.939
22 Mar 2025home211.952
27 Nov 2024away3901.000
17 Feb 2024home283.893

Also on the roster, 2026-27: Jesper Wallstedt .957 (2 GP)

Full game log

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

See all: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen →

BUF · 1-1-0 in 2026-27 Expected starter · 90%

SV% · 2026-27.7842 GP · 4.03 GAA · 2025-26 .910
vs Minnesota.9074 app · 118 SA · 11 GA
GSAx · 2026-27−3.72 starts · most on the roster
vs MINVenueSAGASV%
17 Jan 2026home365.861
22 Mar 2025away203.850
27 Nov 2024home301.967
17 Feb 2024away322.938
Full game log
Team news

8 on the injury lists

Minnesota · injuries

Brock FaberSkullIRReturn15 Oct
Danila YurovUpper BodyDay-to-dayReturn6 Oct
Filip GustavssonHipIRReturn1 Nov

Buffalo · injuries

Alex LyonUpper BodyIRReturn10 Oct
Conor TimminsLower BodyIRReturn17 Oct
Jack RathboneUndisclosedIRReturn24 Oct
Jason ZuckerAbdomenIRReturn15 Oct
Topias LeinonenLower BodyIRReturn10 Oct

Latest moves

See all: Latest moves →
24 Sep · MIN

Waived for the purpose of assignment to Iowa (AHL) Ds Matt Kiersted, Carson Lambos, and Roman Schmidt and Fs Caedan Bankier, Dylan Gambrell, Justin Kirkland, Tyler Pitlick, and Mason Shaw. Assigned Ds Ben Dexheimer and Viking Gustafsson Nyberg and Fs Jagger Joshua, Hunter Haight, Riley Heidt, Rasmus Kumpulainen, and Rieger Lorenz to Iowa.

14 Jul 2026 · MIN

Signed G Filip Ruzicka to a three-year, entry-level contract.

13 Jul 2026 · MIN

Signed D Filip Ruzicka to a three-year contract.

2 Oct · BUF

Loaned D Dennis Gilbert to Rochester (AHL).

1 Oct · BUF

Recalled D Dennis Gilbert from Rochester (AHL). Placed G Alex Lyon and D Olen Zellweger on injured reserve. Signed D Louis Crevier to a four-year contract. Transferred F Matthew Savoie to long-term injured reserve.

14 Sep · BUF

Signed C Noah Östlund to an eight-year contract.

Injury report

Minnesota · 2026 draft

See all: Minnesota · 2026 draft →
#83Adam AnderssonRound 3 · Leksand Jr.C
#112Kayden LemireRound 4 · Prince GeorgeRW
#137Filip RuzickaRound 5 · BrandonG
Full draft

Buffalo · 2026 draft

See all: Buffalo · 2026 draft →
#4Daxon RudolphRound 1 · Prince AlbertD
#20Ilia MorozovRound 1 · MiamiC
#124Olivers MurnieksRound 4 · Saint JohnC
#156Doman SzongothRound 5 · Kookoo Jr.C
Full draft

Tuesday 6 October · the full slate

See all: Tuesday 6 October · the full slate →
7:00 PM ETNSHatTOR7:00 PM ETCARatMTL7:00 PM ETOTTatDET7:00 PM ETUTAatNJD7:00 PM ETMINatBUFThis game7:30 PM ETNYIatNYR8:00 PM ETSTLatCHI9:40 PM ETVGKatSEA10:00 PM ETFLAatLAK
Scores
Shots, skaters, totals and marketsBuffalo out-attempted Minnesota 298 to 270
Where the shots come from · last 5 meetings

Buffalo out-attempted Minnesota 298 to 270

Every attempt from the last meetings, both teams shooting right.

Minnesota Wild

270 att · 143 on goal · 14 G · 9.8%
Crease29 att · 2 G
Slot87 att · 7 G
Wing108 att · 3 G
Point33 att · 1 G
Neutral zone13 att · 1 G

Buffalo Sabres

298 att · 145 on goal · 10 G · 6.9%
Crease15 att · 2 G
Slot121 att · 5 G
Wing113 att · 3 G
Point46 att · 0 G
Neutral zone3 att · 0 G
GoalOn goalMissedBlocked
Skaters

Kirill Kaprizov has 6 points in the last 5 meetings

Left, production across the last meetings. Right, each club's scoring leaders this season, with 2025-26 one tap away.

In the last meetings

See all: In the last meetings →
PlayerGPGAPSOG
97Kirill Kaprizov424616
36Mats Zuccarello42358
12Matt Boldy413413
89Alex Tuch512316
72Tage Thompson503324
22Jack Quinn311212
14Joel Eriksson Ek31129
Vladimir Tarasenko21127
19Peyton Krebs51126
23Marco Rossi31126
Head-to-head finder

Season leaders

See all: Season leaders →
PlayerGPGPP/GP
97Kirill Kaprizov2331.50
43Quinn Hughes2131.50
46Jared Spurgeon2121.00
47Michael McCarron2021.00
10Bobby Brink2021.00
25Owen Power2031.50
22Jack Quinn2221.00
72Tage Thompson2121.00
23Mattias Samuelsson2121.00
86Noah Ostlund2021.00
Skater stats

Kirill Kaprizov vs Buffalo · game by game

See all: Kirill Kaprizov vs Buffalo · game by game →
DateVenueGAPSOGTOI
17 Jan 2026away033324:28
29 Nov 2025home101625:01
27 Nov 2024away101322:15
17 Feb 2024home011420:12
Last 5 meetings6 P2 G, 4 A · 16 SOG
Next best5 PMats Zuccarello, MIN
2026-27 season3 P2 GP · 3 G
Blank vs BUF0 of 4A point in every meeting
Full game log
Totals

A total set above what this fixture delivers

The board sits at 6.5. The last 5 meetings averaged 5.0 goals and went over 6.5 1 time.

line 6.5
012345678910
Dot colour: the winner of that meeting · goals per game
Last 5 avg5.0Goals per game
Over 6.51 of 5
Books at the line4Posting 6.5
Lowest1 goal
Prediction markets

Two markets, one coin flip

US and Canadian books are kept apart because they are separate markets with different books and prices.

Moneyline by market

SelectionBestAvgFair
United States · 8 books
Minnesota52¢52¢50.0%
Buffalo51¢52¢50.0%
Canada · 1 book
Minnesota56¢56¢52.0%
Buffalo51¢51¢48.0%

Snapshot 5 Oct, 4:01 PM ET

Lines on the board

Total 6.54 books
Total 6.04 books
Puck line BUF +1.54 books
Puck line MIN -1.54 books
Puck line BUF -1.51 book
Puck line MIN +1.51 book

Sportsbook prices are shown as implied cents (100 ÷ decimal odds) so they compare directly with prediction-market prices. Fair = margin removed. Snapshot 6 Oct, 12:57 PM ET Delayed · 1 hr. "Best" is the cheapest price to buy Yes after venue fees. Prices are snapshots taken every 15 minutes (season futures hourly), not live. Prediction markets carry risk of loss and are not available in every jurisdiction. 18+/21+ where applicable. How markets work · Affiliate disclosure

Updated after every final · Closing 5 Oct, 4:01 PM ET