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‹TUE OCT 6›
9 games, finals
TUEOCT 6
FINAL/OT
NSH4
TOR5
FINAL
CAR6
MTL4
FINAL
OTT3
DET5
FINAL
UTA5
NJD3
FINAL/OT
MIN2
BUF3
FINAL
NYI2
NYR5
FINAL
STL2
CHI4
FINAL
VGK6
SEA2
FINAL
FLA2
LAK1
RecapThis page was the preview until puck drop. Preview as published ↓Tuesday 6 October · Scotiabank Arena · Meeting No. 38
FINAL/OTWinner at 04:46 of overtime
By period
123OTT
Nashville22004
Toronto03115
Pre-game favouriteTOR 57.8%Won
First starG. McKenna1 G · 1 A
Game stats
25Shots37
3.0Expected goals4.0
1/1Power play1/3
22Hits20
16Blocks11
Full box score ↓
Recap · data desk

Matthews ends it in overtime as Toronto beat Nashville 5-4

Toronto out-shot Nashville 37-25 in a game with 1 lead change. The pre-game price had TOR at 57.8%.

Pucks & Stats Data Desk 6 Oct

1st period: S. Stamkos (NSH), N. Hoglander (NSH). 2nd period: N. Hoglander (NSH), J. Tavares (TOR), W. Nylander (TOR), S. Stamkos (NSH), G. McKenna (TOR). 3rd period: J. Roslovic (TOR). Overtime: A. Matthews (TOR).

Auston Matthews led Toronto with 1 goal and 3 assists. Anthony Stolarz stopped 21 of 25 shots. On expected goals it was Toronto 4.0, Nashville 3.0. On the power play Toronto went 1 for 3 and Nashville 1 for 1.

Shots37-25Toronto first
Power play1/3Toronto
Lead changes1
DecidedOvertimeWinner at 04:46

How it turned

1st period
07:13Steven Stamkos (goal 2)Assists: M. Wood, R. JosiPP1-0
09:08Nils Hoglander (goal 2)Assists: A. Wilsby, F. ForsbergEV2-0
2nd period
03:03Nils Hoglander (goal 3)Assists: F. Forsberg, M. BourqueEV3-0
04:56John Tavares (goal 1)Assists: G. McKenna, A. StolarzEV3-1
06:58William Nylander (goal 3)Assists: A. Matthews, K. MarchenkoPP3-2
13:30Steven Stamkos (goal 3)Assists: R. O'Reilly, B. SkjeiEV4-2
14:31Gavin McKenna (goal 1)Assists: A. Matthews, J. RoslovicEV4-3
3rd period
08:54Jack Roslovic (goal 1)Assists: A. Matthews, W. NylanderEV4-4
Overtime
04:46Auston Matthews (goal 2)Assists: W. NylanderOT · GWG4-5

Where the goals came from

Nashville attacking leftToronto attacking right
GoalOn goalMissedBlocked

How the chances built

Nashville 3.01 xGToronto 3.97 xGDots are goals · hover for the shot
00.511.522.533.542nd3rdOT1st

Running total of expected goals for each team, regulation and overtime. A steep climb is a spell of good chances; a goal dot above the other line came against the run of play.

The market got this one

Market, pre-game57.8% TORCalled it
Last season's table51.4% NSHMissed
Total goals9Over 6.0
How each market settled ↓

What’s next

Nashville visit Montréal on Thursday 8 October. Toronto visit Vegas on Thursday 8 October.

Nashville PredatorsToronto Maple Leafs
Full game data

Box score

Toronto

#SkaterGAPSOG+/-FO%TOI
34Auston Matthews1344+246.2%25:09
88William Nylander1231+233.3%22:48
96Jack Roslovic1124+125.0%17:46
92Gavin McKenna1124+1—14:45
91John Tavares1016094.1%18:46
86Kirill Marchenko0113−1—21:35
43Darren Raddysh00020—25:51
44Morgan Rielly00020—20:39
22Jake McCabe00010—19:59
8Chris Tanev0000+1—18:38
95Oliver Ekman-Larsson00000—17:27
28Troy Stecher00010—17:20
53Easton Cowan00030—16:01
15Colton Sissons0002075.0%13:39
20Nick Paul0002−242.9%13:27
24Brandon Duhaime00010—11:22
73Teddy Blueger0001−1100.0%9:53
29Bo Groulx0000050.0%7:31

Nashville

#SkaterGAPSOG+/-FO%TOI
91Steven Stamkos2023075.0%19:43
21Nils Hoglander2022+1—10:38
9Filip Forsberg0222+1—21:00
59Roman Josi0111−1—27:06
90Ryan O'Reilly0111−250.0%24:13
76Brady Skjei01100—22:53
22Mavrik Bourque0111+120.0%19:48
71Matthew Wood0111030.8%16:54
2Adam Wilsby01120—15:05
48Nick Perbix0001−1—20:49
41Nicolas Hague00010—19:12
14Alexander Kerfoot0001−20.0%18:50
18Jack Drury0001025.0%15:01
84Adam Edstrom000300.0%13:38
81Jonathan Marchessault00020—13:17
79Ross Colton0002−10.0%12:52
85William Trudeau00010—10:05
47Jack Ahcan0000+1—7:58
Markets

How each market settled

Market · closing priceMarketKalshiKalshiPolymarketPolyProphetXProphetXSettled
Toronto to winMoneyline59¢60¢59¢100¢
Nashville to winMoneyline41¢41¢42¢0¢

Closing price = each venue’s midpoint at the last snapshot before puck drop. Settlement follows each venue’s rules; shown for information only. "Best" is the cheapest price to buy Yes after venue fees. Prices are snapshots taken every 15 minutes (season futures hourly), not live. Prediction markets carry risk of loss and are not available in every jurisdiction. 18+/21+ where applicable.

Before the game · as published 6 Oct, 2:14 PM ET
The thesisThe market backs Toronto, last season's table backs Nashville
The thesis

The market backs Toronto, last season's table backs Nashville

Nashville finished last season 23rd in the league on 86 points. Toronto finished 28th on 78, and the 2025-26 season series went NSH 1-1-0.

With the bookmaker margin removed, 8 US books price Toronto at 57.8% at home. Last season's table, adjusted for home ice, would put them at 48.6%.

Where the market disagrees with the table

Table: 48.6% TORMarket: 57.8% TOR

Table probability uses 2025-26 points percentage (.476 vs .524) with home-ice advantage. The market rates Toronto 9.2 points higher than last season's table does.

Method
Head-to-headMeeting number 38
Head-to-head

Meeting number 38

Across 37 completed games, Toronto lead the head-to-head 19-15-3.

All-time record19-15-3Toronto's record in the series
Meetings played37This is number 38
2025-26 seriesNSH 1-1-0
Last 53-2Toronto

Last 5 meetings

See all: Last 5 meetings →
DateResultShotsPower playWinner
20 Dec 2025TOR 3 – NSH 522–34TOR 0/1 · NSH 1/2NSH
14 Oct 2025NSH 4 – TOR 730–28NSH 0/2 · TOR 0/2TOR
22 Mar 2025TOR 2 – NSH 526–32TOR 1/3 · NSH 1/3NSH
4 Dec 2024NSH 2 – TOR 324–28NSH 0/2 · TOR 1/3TOR
9 Dec 2023NSH 0 – TOR 418–37NSH 0/3 · TOR 1/5TOR
Head-to-head finder

The table on each 2025-26 meeting night

DateNashvilleToronto
14 Oct 20252-1-1 · 5 pts11th2-2-0 · 4 pts17th
20 Dec 202514-16-4 · 32 pts31st15-14-5 · 35 pts25th

League rank after that night's games; a longer bar is a higher place. On 14 Oct 2025, Nashville were 11th in the league and Toronto 17th. By 20 Dec 2025 it was 31st and 25th.

Special teamsPower play and penalty kill, season and series
Special teams

Power play and penalty kill, season and series

This season's rates first, then 2025-26 and the last meetings between the two. Power-play chances are counted from the penalty log with coincidental minors cancelled; faceoffs are each club's wins over draws taken.

All bars share one scale · 0–100%SeasonLast meetings

Nashville

Small sample
Power play · 2026-2728.6%
Power play · 2025-2623.1% · 11th
Power play · last 5 meetings2/12 · 16.7%
Penalty kill · 2026-2780.0%
Penalty kill · 2025-2681.7% · 5th
Faceoffs · 2026-2753.0% · 61/115
Drawn · 2026-277 (3.50/gm)
Drawn · last meetings12 (2.40/gm)
Shorthanded · 2026-275 (2.50/gm)
PP goals · last meetings2

Toronto

Small sample
Power play · 2026-2718.2%
Power play · 2025-2621.3% · 15th
Power play · last 5 meetings3/14 · 21.4%
Penalty kill · 2026-27100.0%
Penalty kill · 2025-2681.2% · 8th
Faceoffs · 2026-2747.0% · 79/168
Drawn · 2026-2711 (3.67/gm)
Drawn · last meetings14 (2.80/gm)
Shorthanded · 2026-2710 (3.33/gm)
PP goals · last meetings3
Goaltending and injuriesJuuse Saros has started most of these meetings
Goaltending

Juuse Saros has started most of these meetings

Juuse Saros played 3 of the last 5 meetings with Toronto, with a .895 save percentage. Starters are confirmed on game day.

Expected startersAn estimate until the teams confirmEvery game tonight →
Nashville
Expected starter#74 Juuse Saros
  • Started 2 of 2 this season
  • 59 of the team's last 82 starts

2026-27: 2 GP · .933 SV% · GSAx +2

Injured: Annunen (injured reserve)

Toronto
Expected starter#41 Anthony Stolarz
  • .963 save percentage over his last three starts

2026-27: 1 GP · .963 SV% · GSAx +2

Also possible: Bobrovsky 47%

Injured: Merzlikins (injured reserve)

Juuse Saros

See all: Juuse Saros →

NSH · 1-1-0 in 2026-27 Expected starter · 100%

SV% · 2026-27.9332 GP · 2.03 GAA · 2025-26 .894
vs Toronto.8953 app · 76 SA · 8 GA
GSAx · 2026-27+1.62 starts · most on the roster
vs TORVenueSAGASV%
20 Dec 2025home223.864
22 Mar 2025home262.923
4 Dec 2024away283.893
Full game log

Toronto crease

TOR · 2026-27 Expected: Stolarz · 53%

Sergei Bobrovsky.8872 GP · 0-2-0 · GSAx +0.2
Anthony Stolarz.9631 GP · 1-0-0 · GSAx +1.7

No appearances against Nashville in the last meetings.

Team news

6 on the injury lists

Nashville · injuries

Justus AnnunenUndisclosedIRReturn13 Oct

Toronto · injuries

Cade WebberElbowIRReturn31 Oct
Dakota JoshuaAbdomenIRReturn24 Oct
Elvis MerzlikinsShoulderIRReturn30 Mar
Max DomiBackIRReturn21 Nov
William VilleneuveKneeIRReturn31 Oct

Latest moves

See all: Latest moves →
4 Oct · NSH

Recalled LW Yegor Pinchuk from Milwaukee (AHL). Assigned G Matt Murray to Milwaukee.

3 Oct · NSH

Recalled G Matthew Murray from Milwaukee (AHL).

2 Oct · NSH

Assigned D Ryan Ufko to Milwaukee (AHL).

5 Oct · TOR

Placed RW Nikita Grebenkin on injured reserve.

30 Sep · TOR

Moved C Max Domi from the non-roster list to long-term injured reserve.

29 Sep · TOR

Placed D Cade Webber on the injured non-roster list.

Injury report

Nashville · 2026 draft

See all: Nashville · 2026 draft →
#10Wyatt CullenRound 1 · Usa U-18LW
#31Thomas BleylRound 1 · MonctonD
#70Dmitri BorichevRound 3 · Loko-76 YaroslavlG
#106Jakub FlorisRound 4 · Lukko Jr.D
Full draft

Toronto · 2026 draft

See all: Toronto · 2026 draft →
#1Gavin McKennaRound 1 · Penn StateLW
#60Alexander BileckiRound 2 · KitchenerD
#69Ethan MacKenzieRound 3 · EdmontonD
#73Zach OlsenRound 3 · SaskatoonRW
Full draft

Tuesday 6 October · the full slate

See all: Tuesday 6 October · the full slate →
7:00 PM ETNSHatTORThis game7:00 PM ETCARatMTL7:00 PM ETOTTatDET7:00 PM ETUTAatNJD7:00 PM ETMINatBUF7:30 PM ETNYIatNYR8:00 PM ETSTLatCHI9:40 PM ETVGKatSEA10:00 PM ETFLAatLAK
Scores
Shots, skaters, totals and marketsNashville out-attempted Toronto 318 to 272
Where the shots come from · last 5 meetings

Nashville out-attempted Toronto 318 to 272

Every attempt from the last meetings, both teams shooting right.

Nashville Predators

318 att · 138 on goal · 16 G · 11.6%
Crease26 att · 3 G
Slot123 att · 8 G
Wing116 att · 3 G
Point45 att · 2 G
Neutral zone8 att · 0 G

Toronto Maple Leafs

272 att · 141 on goal · 19 G · 13.5%
Crease18 att · 3 G
Slot112 att · 8 G
Wing107 att · 6 G
Point22 att · 1 G
Neutral zone13 att · 1 G
GoalOn goalMissedBlocked
Skaters

Auston Matthews has 8 points in the last 5 meetings

Left, production across the last meetings. Right, each club's scoring leaders this season, with 2025-26 one tap away.

In the last meetings

See all: In the last meetings →
PlayerGPGAPSOG
34Auston Matthews562822
91John Tavares533613
88William Nylander524613
93Mitch Marner31454
9Filip Forsberg522422
77Luke Evangelista52249
89Matthew Knies50449
74Bobby McMann321310
59Roman Josi41237
22Cole Smith51236
Head-to-head finder

Season leaders

See all: Season leaders →
PlayerGPGPP/GP
91Steven Stamkos2121.00
59Roman Josi2121.00
21Nils Hoglander2110.50
90Ryan O'Reilly2010.50
9Filip Forsberg2010.50
88William Nylander3231.00
53Easton Cowan3131.00
44Morgan Rielly3031.00
86Kirill Marchenko3120.67
91John Tavares3020.67
Skater stats

Auston Matthews vs Nashville · game by game

See all: Auston Matthews vs Nashville · game by game →
DateVenueGAPSOGTOI
20 Dec 2025away000318:23
14 Oct 2025home202521:31
22 Mar 2025away022320:00
4 Dec 2024home202720:11
9 Dec 2023home202421:41
Last 5 meetings8 P6 G, 2 A · 22 SOG
Next best6 PJohn Tavares, TOR
2026-27 season1 P3 GP · 1 G
Blank vs NSH1 of 5
Full game log
Totals

A total set below what this fixture delivers

The board sits at 6.0. The last 5 meetings averaged 7.0 goals and went over 6.0 3 times.

line 6.0
0123456789101112
Dot colour: the winner of that meeting · goals per game
Last 5 avg7.0Goals per game
Over 6.03 of 5
Books at the line5Posting 6.0
Lowest4 goals
Prediction markets

Toronto favoured on both sides of the border

US and Canadian books are kept apart because they are separate markets with different books and prices.

Moneyline by market

SelectionBestAvgFair
United States · 8 books
Nashville42¢44¢42.2%
Toronto59¢60¢57.8%
Canada · 1 book
Nashville44¢44¢40.6%
Toronto64¢64¢59.4%

Snapshot 5 Oct, 4:01 PM ET

Lines on the board

Total 6.05 books
Puck line NSH +1.55 books
Puck line TOR -1.55 books
Total 5.52 books
Total 6.51 book

Sportsbook prices are shown as implied cents (100 ÷ decimal odds) so they compare directly with prediction-market prices. Fair = margin removed. Snapshot 6 Oct, 12:57 PM ET Delayed · 1 hr. "Best" is the cheapest price to buy Yes after venue fees. Prices are snapshots taken every 15 minutes (season futures hourly), not live. Prediction markets carry risk of loss and are not available in every jurisdiction. 18+/21+ where applicable. How markets work · Affiliate disclosure

Updated after every final · Closing 5 Oct, 4:01 PM ET