Early look · NHL 2026-27

Tampa Bay Lightning at Carolina Hurricanes: game preview

Tampa BayLightning2026-27: 2-1-0 · 4 pts · 2025-26: 50-26-6 · 106 pts · 5that

CarolinaHurricanes2026-27: 2-1-1 · 5 pts · 2025-26: 53-22-7 · 113 pts · 2nd

Puck drop27 Feb · 7:00 PM ET

VenueLenovo Center

All-time meetings143 completed

BasisLast 5 meetings + 2025-26

The thesis

Seven points apart last season

Tampa Bay finished last season 5th in the league on 106 points. Carolina finished 2nd on 113.

Game-day prices arrive with the afternoon snapshot, about 4:30 PM ET on the day of the game.

Head-to-head

Meeting number 144

Across 143 completed games, Tampa Bay lead the head-to-head 81-48-14.

All-time record81-48-14Tampa Bay's record in the series

Meetings played143This is number 144

2025-26 series—

Last 53-2Carolina

Last 5 meetings

See all: Last 5 meetings →

DateResultShotsPower playWinner

14 Mar 2026CAR 4 – TBL 2——CAR

26 Feb 2026TBL 4 – CAR 5——CAR

20 Dec 2025CAR 4 – TBL 6——TBL

11 Mar 2025TBL 1 – CAR 4——CAR

7 Jan 2025CAR 2 – TBL 3——TBL

Head-to-head finder

The table on each 2025-26 meeting night

DateTampa BayCarolina

20 Dec 202519-13-3 · 41 pts12th22-10-3 · 47 pts4th

26 Feb 202633-14-4 · 70 pts2nd32-15-5 · 69 pts3rd

14 Mar 202640-21-4 · 84 pts6th42-18-6 · 90 pts3rd

League rank after that night's games; a longer bar is a higher place. On 20 Dec 2025, Tampa Bay were 12th in the league and Carolina 4th. By 14 Mar 2026 it was 6th and 3rd.

Where the shots come from · last 5 meetings

Carolina out-attempted Tampa Bay 179 to 156

Every attempt from the last meetings, both teams shooting right.

Tampa Bay Lightning

156 att · 76 on goal · 12 G · 15.8%

Crease18 att · 5 G

Slot71 att · 4 G

Wing42 att · 2 G

Point19 att · 0 G

Neutral zone6 att · 1 G

Carolina Hurricanes

179 att · 90 on goal · 13 G · 14.4%

Crease15 att · 1 G

Slot60 att · 7 G

Wing72 att · 3 G

Point30 att · 1 G

Neutral zone2 att · 1 G

GoalOn goalMissedBlocked

Expected goals

Carolina have created the better chances, last 10 games

Shot quality both ways: expected goals weigh every unblocked attempt by its chance of scoring. Finishing above zero means more goals than the chances.

Tampa BayCarolina

4.04xG for per game3.74

2.64xG against per game2.21

60.5%xG share62.9%

−4.1FinishingGoals minus expected goals−4.0

+0.9GoaltendingExpected goals against minus goals allowed−3.2

This season: 3 games for Tampa Bay, 4 for Carolina. Small sample: early-season xG moves a lot from night to night.

Every team’s xG →

Special teams

Power play and penalty kill, season and series

This season's rates first, then 2025-26 and the last meetings between the two. Power-play chances are counted from the penalty log with coincidental minors cancelled; faceoffs are each club's wins over draws taken.

All bars share one scale · 0–100%SeasonLast meetings

Tampa Bay

Small sample

Power play · 2026-270.0%

Power play · 2025-2620.7% · 17th

Power play · last 5 meetings—

Penalty kill · 2026-2785.7%

Penalty kill · 2025-2682.6% · 3rd

Faceoffs · 2026-2748.2% · 81/168

Drawn · 2026-2713 (4.33/gm)

Drawn · last meetings0 (0.00/gm)

Shorthanded · 2026-277 (2.33/gm)

PP goals · last meetings0

Carolina

Small sample

Power play · 2026-2719.0%

Power play · 2025-2624.9% · 4th

Power play · last 5 meetings—

Penalty kill · 2026-2789.5%

Penalty kill · 2025-2680.5% · 11th

Faceoffs · 2026-2752.1% · 125/240

Drawn · 2026-2721 (5.25/gm)

Drawn · last meetings0 (0.00/gm)

Shorthanded · 2026-2719 (4.75/gm)

PP goals · last meetings0

Skaters

Skaters to watch

Each club's top three forwards and defencemen by points this season, with 2025-26 one tap away.

Forwards to watch

See all: Forwards to watch →

PlayerGPGAPP/GP

86Nikita Kucherov31341.33

59Jake Guentzel31231.00

38Brandon Hagel31231.00

20Sebastian Aho44371.75

37Andrei Svechnikov41341.00

53Jackson Blake40330.75

Points leaders

Defencemen to watch

See all: Defencemen to watch →

PlayerGPGAPP/GP

74John Carlson30220.67

51Charle-Edouard D'Astous31010.33

27Ryan McDonagh30000.00

4Shayne Gostisbehere41120.50

74Jaccob Slavin40220.50

5Jalen Chatfield40110.25

Defencemen stats

Goaltending

Who has stopped this matchup

Save percentage in the last meetings by goalie. Starters are confirmed on game day.

Expected startersAn estimate until the teams confirmEvery game tonight →

Tampa Bay

Expected starter after their game on 25 Feb: a back-to-back depends on who plays that night.

Carolina

Expected starter after their game on 25 Feb: a back-to-back depends on who plays that night.

Tampa Bay crease

TBL · 2026-27 Starter estimate from 24 Feb

Andrei Vasilevskiy.8983 GP · 2-1-0 · GSAx +1.0

No appearances against Carolina in the last meetings.

Carolina crease

CAR · 2026-27 Starter estimate from 24 Feb

Brandon Bussi.8513 GP · 1-1-1 · GSAx −3.7

Pyotr Kochetkov.8891 GP · 1-0-0 · GSAx +0.5

No appearances against Tampa Bay in the last meetings.

Totals

Scoring rates point to about 6.3 goals

No total is posted yet: it arrives with the game-day prices. Until then, the scoring rates and the recent meetings set the range.

Goals in the last 5 meetings

14 Mar 20266 · CAR 4–2 TBL

26 Feb 20269 · TBL 4–5 CAR

20 Dec 202510 · CAR 4–6 TBL

11 Mar 20255 · TBL 1–4 CAR

7 Jan 20255 · CAR 2–3 TBL

Bar length is total goals, coloured by the winner.

Scoring rates

Team26-27 GF26-27 GA25-26 GF25-26 GA

Tampa Bay2.672.333.542.82

Carolina2.753.003.612.93

Goals for and against per game. The estimate averages each team’s scoring with the other’s goals allowed, and leans on 2025-26 until a team has played 20 games.

Scoring rates suggest6.3Goals in this game

Last 5 meetings7.0Goals per game

Line—No total posted yet

Books at the line—With the game-day prices

Team news

5 on the injury lists

Tampa Bay · injuries

Dominic JamesHandIRReturn8 Oct

Emil LillebergUndisclosedOutReturn13 Oct

Yanni GourdeHipIRReturn2 Dec

Carolina · injuries

Alexander NikishinContract DisputeOutReturn10 Oct

Seth JarvisShoulderIRReturn24 Oct

Latest moves

See all: Latest moves →

6 Oct · TBL

Placed C Jansen Harkins on waivers.

27 Sep · TBL

Placed D Michael Callahan on waivers.

27 Sep · TBL

Placed D Michael Callahan, G Mads Sogaard Nielsenon, LD Maxim Groshev, LW Jakob Pelletier and C Nicholas Abruzzese on waivers.

30 Sep · CAR

Placed G Cayden Primeau on waivers.

27 Sep · CAR

Placed C Seth Jarvis on the injured non-roster list. Placed LD Juuso Valimaki on waivers.

27 Sep · CAR

Placed C Seth Jarvis on the injured non-roster list. Placed D Juuso Valimaki on waivers.

Injury report

Tampa Bay · 2026 draft

See all: Tampa Bay · 2026 draft →

#52Oleg KulebiakinRound 2 · HalifaxRW

#90Tomas KralovicRound 3 · BratislavaD

#134Morgan AnderbergRound 5 · VaxjoC

#154Cooper SollerRound 5 · Sioux FallsC

Full draft

Carolina · 2026 draft

See all: Carolina · 2026 draft →

#51William HakanssonRound 2 · LuleaD

#61Wiggo SorenssonRound 2 · Boro/vetlandaC

#68Zachary LansardRound 3 · ReginaRW

#105Michael BerchildRound 4 · Usa U-18LW

Full draft

Saturday 27 February · the full slate

See all: Saturday 27 February · the full slate →

CARThis game 7:00 PM ET

Updated after every final