Early look · NHL 2026-27

Tampa Bay Lightning at Calgary Flames: game preview

Tampa BayLightning2026-27: 2-1-0 · 4 pts · 2025-26: 50-26-6 · 106 pts · 5that

CalgaryFlames2026-27: 0-3-0 · 0 pts · 2025-26: 34-39-9 · 77 pts · 29th

Puck drop9 Jan · 3:30 PM ET

VenueScotiabank Saddledome

All-time meetings57 completed

BasisLast 5 meetings + 2025-26

The thesis

Twenty-nine points apart last season

Tampa Bay finished last season 5th in the league on 106 points. Calgary finished 29th on 77.

Game-day prices arrive with the afternoon snapshot, about 4:30 PM ET on the day of the game.

Head-to-head

Meeting number 58

Across 57 completed games, Tampa Bay lead the head-to-head 31-21-5.

All-time record31-21-5Tampa Bay's record in the series

Meetings played57This is number 58

2025-26 series—

Last 53-2Tampa Bay

Last 5 meetings

See all: Last 5 meetings →

DateResultShotsPower playWinner

22 Mar 2026TBL 3 – CGY 4 OT——CGY

26 Nov 2025CGY 1 – TBL 5——TBL

27 Feb 2025CGY 0 – TBL 3——TBL

12 Dec 2024TBL 8 – CGY 3——TBL

7 Mar 2024CGY 6 – TBL 3——CGY

Head-to-head finder

The table on each 2025-26 meeting night

DateTampa BayCalgary

26 Nov 202514-7-2 · 30 pts4th8-14-3 · 19 pts31st

22 Mar 202643-21-5 · 91 pts6th29-34-7 · 65 pts29th

League rank after that night's games; a longer bar is a higher place. On 26 Nov 2025, Tampa Bay were 4th in the league and Calgary 31st. By 22 Mar 2026 it was 6th and 29th.

Where the shots come from · last 5 meetings

Tampa Bay out-attempted Calgary 124 to 113

Every attempt from the last meetings, both teams shooting right.

Tampa Bay Lightning

124 att · 58 on goal · 8 G · 13.8%

Crease10 att · 0 G

Slot51 att · 4 G

Wing38 att · 3 G

Point23 att · 1 G

Neutral zone2 att · 0 G

Calgary Flames

113 att · 61 on goal · 5 G · 8.2%

Crease12 att · 0 G

Slot39 att · 2 G

Wing42 att · 3 G

Point18 att · 0 G

Neutral zone2 att · 0 G

GoalOn goalMissedBlocked

Expected goals

Tampa Bay have created the better chances, last 10 games

Shot quality both ways: expected goals weigh every unblocked attempt by its chance of scoring. Finishing above zero means more goals than the chances.

Tampa BayCalgary

4.04xG for per game2.54

2.64xG against per game3.38

60.5%xG share42.9%

−4.1FinishingGoals minus expected goals−4.6

+0.9GoaltendingExpected goals against minus goals allowed−5.9

This season: 3 games for Tampa Bay, 3 for Calgary. Small sample: early-season xG moves a lot from night to night.

Every team’s xG →

Special teams

Power play and penalty kill, season and series

This season's rates first, then 2025-26 and the last meetings between the two. Power-play chances are counted from the penalty log with coincidental minors cancelled; faceoffs are each club's wins over draws taken.

All bars share one scale · 0–100%SeasonLast meetings

Tampa Bay

Small sample

Power play · 2026-270.0%

Power play · 2025-2620.7% · 17th

Power play · last 5 meetings—

Penalty kill · 2026-2785.7%

Penalty kill · 2025-2682.6% · 3rd

Faceoffs · 2026-2748.2% · 81/168

Drawn · 2026-2713 (4.33/gm)

Drawn · last meetings0 (0.00/gm)

Shorthanded · 2026-277 (2.33/gm)

PP goals · last meetings0

Calgary

Small sample

Power play · 2026-2740.0%

Power play · 2025-2616.2% · 31st

Power play · last 5 meetings—

Penalty kill · 2026-2790.0%

Penalty kill · 2025-2680.4% · 12th

Faceoffs · 2026-2750.3% · 90/179

Drawn · 2026-275 (1.67/gm)

Drawn · last meetings0 (0.00/gm)

Shorthanded · 2026-2710 (3.33/gm)

PP goals · last meetings0

Skaters

Skaters to watch

Each club's top three forwards and defencemen by points this season, with 2025-26 one tap away.

Goaltending

Who has stopped this matchup

Save percentage in the last meetings by goalie. Starters are confirmed on game day.

Expected startersAn estimate until the teams confirmEvery game tonight →

Tampa Bay

Expected starter after their game on 7 Jan: a back-to-back depends on who plays that night.

Calgary

Expected starter after their game on 7 Jan: a back-to-back depends on who plays that night.

Tampa Bay crease

TBL · 2026-27 Starter estimate from 6 Jan

Andrei Vasilevskiy.8983 GP · 2-1-0 · GSAx +1.0

No appearances against Calgary in the last meetings.

Calgary crease

CGY · 2026-27 Starter estimate from 6 Jan

Dustin Wolf.7972 GP · 0-2-0 · GSAx −5.5

Devin Cooley.8801 GP · 0-1-0 · GSAx −0.1

No appearances against Tampa Bay in the last meetings.

Totals

Scoring rates point to about 6.0 goals

No total is posted yet: it arrives with the game-day prices. Until then, the scoring rates and the recent meetings set the range.

Goals in the last 5 meetings

22 Mar 20267 · TBL 3–4 CGY

26 Nov 20256 · CGY 1–5 TBL

27 Feb 20253 · CGY 0–3 TBL

12 Dec 202411 · TBL 8–3 CGY

7 Mar 20249 · CGY 6–3 TBL

Bar length is total goals, coloured by the winner.

Scoring rates

Team26-27 GF26-27 GA25-26 GF25-26 GA

Tampa Bay2.672.333.542.82

Calgary1.005.332.593.16

Goals for and against per game. The estimate averages each team’s scoring with the other’s goals allowed, and leans on 2025-26 until a team has played 20 games.

Scoring rates suggest6.0Goals in this game

Last 5 meetings7.2Goals per game

Line—No total posted yet

Books at the line—With the game-day prices

Team news

4 on the injury lists

Tampa Bay · injuries

Dominic JamesHandIRReturn8 Oct

Emil LillebergUndisclosedOutReturn13 Oct

Yanni GourdeHipIRReturn2 Dec

Calgary · injuries

Jonathan HuberdeauHipIRReturn10 Oct

Latest moves

See all: Latest moves →

6 Oct · TBL

Placed C Jansen Harkins on waivers.

27 Sep · TBL

Placed D Michael Callahan on waivers.

27 Sep · TBL

Placed D Michael Callahan, G Mads Sogaard Nielsenon, LD Maxim Groshev, LW Jakob Pelletier and C Nicholas Abruzzese on waivers.

5 Oct · CGY

Placed D Brayden Pachal and C Connor Zary on waivers.

26 Sep · CGY

Waived F Alex Nylander.

25 Sep · CGY

Assigned Fs Andrew Basha, Will Dineen and Tyson Gross, Ds Hunter Brzustewicz and Axel Hurtig and G Arsenii Sergeev to Calgary (AHL). Waived for the purpose of assignment to Calgary Fs Dryden Hunt, Ben Jones, Rory Kerins, Sam Morton and William Stromgren and Ds Michael Benning, Andreas Englund and Jake Livingstone.

Injury report

Tampa Bay · 2026 draft

See all: Tampa Bay · 2026 draft →

#52Oleg KulebiakinRound 2 · HalifaxRW

#90Tomas KralovicRound 3 · BratislavaD

#134Morgan AnderbergRound 5 · VaxjoC

#154Cooper SollerRound 5 · Sioux FallsC

Full draft

Calgary · 2026 draft

See all: Calgary · 2026 draft →

#6Carson CarelsRound 1 · Prince GeorgeD

#30Jack HextallRound 1 · YoungstownC

#36Chase HarringtonRound 2 · SpokaneLW

#42Tobias TrejbalRound 2 · YoungstownG

Full draft

Saturday 9 January · the full slate

See all: Saturday 9 January · the full slate →

CGYThis game 3:30 PM ET

Updated after every final

Tampa Bay Lightning at Calgary Flames: game preview

Twenty-nine points apart last season

Meeting number 58

Last 5 meetings

The table on each 2025-26 meeting night

Tampa Bay out-attempted Calgary 124 to 113

Tampa Bay Lightning

Calgary Flames

Tampa Bay have created the better chances, last 10 games

Power play and penalty kill, season and series

Tampa Bay

Calgary

Skaters to watch

Forwards to watch

Defencemen to watch

Who has stopped this matchup

Tampa Bay crease

Calgary crease

Scoring rates point to about 6.0 goals

Goals in the last 5 meetings

Scoring rates

4 on the injury lists

Tampa Bay · injuries

Calgary · injuries

Latest moves

Tampa Bay · 2026 draft

Calgary · 2026 draft

Saturday 9 January · the full slate