Early look The full preview opens on Thursday 11 March, three days before puck drop, with the expected goalies, the latest team news and game-day prices. Until then this page shows the matchup as it stands.
Early look · NHL 2026-27

Buffalo Sabres at Minnesota Wild: game preview

Puck drop14 Mar · 7:00 PM ET
VenueGrand Casino Arena
All-time meetings37 completed
BasisLast 5 meetings + 2025-26
The thesis

Five points apart last season

Buffalo finished last season 4th in the league on 109 points. Minnesota finished 7th on 104, and the 2025-26 season series went BUF 1-0-1.

Game-day prices arrive with the afternoon snapshot, about 4:30 PM ET on the day of the game.

Head-to-head

Meeting number 38

Across 37 completed games, Minnesota lead the head-to-head 19-10-7.

All-time record19-10-7Minnesota's record in the series
Meetings played37This is number 38
2025-26 seriesBUF 1-0-1
Last 53-2Minnesota
DateResultShotsPower playWinner
6 OctMIN 2 – BUF 3 OT20–28MIN 1/4 · BUF 0/2BUF
17 Jan 2026MIN 5 – BUF 4 OT36–24MIN 1/4 · BUF 1/4MIN
29 Nov 2025BUF 3 – MIN 2 SO33–24BUF 0/3 · MIN 0/3BUF
22 Mar 2025BUF 1 – MIN 421–21BUF 0/2 · MIN 0/2MIN
27 Nov 2024MIN 1 – BUF 030–39MIN 0/0 · BUF 0/2MIN
Head-to-head finder

The table on each meeting night

DateBuffaloMinnesota
29 Nov 202510-11-4 · 24 pts29th14-7-5 · 33 pts5th
17 Jan 202626-16-5 · 57 pts10th27-13-9 · 63 pts4th
6 Oct2-1-0 · 4 pts14th2-0-1 · 5 pts5th

League rank after that night's games; a longer bar is a higher place. On 29 Nov 2025, Buffalo were 29th in the league and Minnesota 5th. By 6 Oct it was 14th and 5th.


Where the shots come from · last 5 meetings

Buffalo out-attempted Minnesota 314 to 263

Every attempt from the last meetings, both teams shooting right.

Buffalo Sabres

314 att · 145 on goal · 10 G · 6.9%
Crease20 att · 2 G
Slot132 att · 6 G
Wing113 att · 2 G
Point46 att · 0 G
Neutral zone3 att · 0 G

Minnesota Wild

263 att · 131 on goal · 14 G · 10.7%
Crease25 att · 2 G
Slot97 att · 7 G
Wing94 att · 4 G
Point30 att · 0 G
Neutral zone17 att · 1 G
GoalOn goalMissedBlocked

Expected goals

Buffalo have created the better chances, last 10 games

Shot quality both ways: expected goals weigh every unblocked attempt by its chance of scoring. Finishing above zero means more goals than the chances.

BuffaloMinnesota
3.53xG for per game3.01
2.17xG against per game2.83
62.0%xG share51.5%
−0.6FinishingGoals minus expected goals−0.0
−4.5GoaltendingExpected goals against minus goals allowed+3.5

This season: 3 games for Buffalo, 3 for Minnesota. Small sample: early-season xG moves a lot from night to night.

Every team’s xG →


Special teams

Power play and penalty kill, season and series

This season's rates first, then 2025-26 and the last meetings between the two. Power-play chances are counted from the penalty log with coincidental minors cancelled; faceoffs are each club's wins over draws taken.

All bars share one scale · 0–100%SeasonLast meetings

Buffalo

Small sample
Power play · 2026-270.0%
Power play · 2025-2619.5% · 21st
Power play · last 5 meetings1/13 · 7.7%
Penalty kill · 2026-2766.7%
Penalty kill · 2025-2681.9% · 4th
Faceoffs · 2026-2750.6% · 91/180
Drawn · 2026-2710 (3.33/gm)
Drawn · last meetings13 (2.60/gm)
Shorthanded · 2026-279 (3.00/gm)
PP goals · last meetings1

Minnesota

Small sample
Power play · 2026-2736.4%
Power play · 2025-2625.2% · 3rd
Power play · last 5 meetings2/13 · 15.4%
Penalty kill · 2026-27100.0%
Penalty kill · 2025-2679.8% · 16th
Faceoffs · 2026-2748.0% · 84/175
Drawn · 2026-2711 (3.67/gm)
Drawn · last meetings13 (2.60/gm)
Shorthanded · 2026-279 (3.00/gm)
PP goals · last meetings2

Skaters

Kirill Kaprizov has 5 points in the last 5 meetings

Each club's top three forwards and defencemen by points this season, with 2025-26 one tap away, then who has produced in the last meetings.

PlayerGPGAPP/GP
72Tage Thompson32241.33
86Noah Ostlund31231.00
22Jack Quinn32020.67
97Kirill Kaprizov33031.00
20Blake Coleman31120.67
Points leaders
PlayerGPGAPP/GP
25Owen Power31451.67
26Rasmus Dahlin31120.67
43Quinn Hughes31341.33
46Jared Spurgeon31231.00
3Olli Maatta30110.33
Defencemen stats

Kirill Kaprizov vs Buffalo · game by game

See all: Kirill Kaprizov vs Buffalo · game by game →
DateVenueGAPSOGTOI
6 Octaway000324:58
17 Jan 2026away033324:28
29 Nov 2025home101625:01
27 Nov 2024away101322:15
Last 5 meetings5 P2 G, 3 A · 15 SOG
Next best5 PMats Zuccarello, MIN
2026-27 season3 P3 GP · 3 G
Blank vs BUF1 of 4
Full game log

Goaltending

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen has been the difference

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen faced 86 shots across 3 appearances against Minnesota and conceded 9, a .895 save percentage against a season figure of .784. Starters are confirmed on game day.

Expected startersAn estimate until the teams confirmEvery game tonight →

Expected starter after their game on 12 Mar: a back-to-back depends on who plays that night.

Expected starter after their game on 11 Mar: a back-to-back depends on who plays that night.

BUF · 1-1-0 in 2026-27 Starter estimate from 11 Mar

SV% · 2026-27.7842 GP · 4.03 GAA · 2025-26 .910
vs Minnesota.8953 app · 86 SA · 9 GA
GSAx · 2026-27−3.72 starts · most on the roster
vs MINVenueSAGASV%
17 Jan 2026home365.861
22 Mar 2025away203.850
27 Nov 2024home301.967

Also on the roster, 2026-27: Colten Ellis .900 (1 GP)

Full game log

MIN · 28-15-6 in 2025-26 Starter estimate from 11 Mar

SV% · 2025-26.90450 GP · 2.69 GAA
vs Buffalo.9404 app · 117 SA · 7 GA
GSAx · 2025-26+0.949 starts
vs BUFVenueSAGASV%
17 Jan 2026away244.833
29 Nov 2025home332.939
22 Mar 2025home211.952
27 Nov 2024away3901.000

Also on the roster, 2026-27: Jesper Wallstedt .933 (3 GP)

Full game log

Totals

Scoring rates point to about 6.3 goals

No total is posted yet: it arrives with the game-day prices. Until then, the scoring rates and the recent meetings set the range.

Goals in the last 5 meetings

6 Oct5 · MIN 2–3 BUF
17 Jan 20269 · MIN 5–4 BUF
29 Nov 20255 · BUF 3–2 MIN
22 Mar 20255 · BUF 1–4 MIN
27 Nov 20241 · MIN 1–0 BUF

Bar length is total goals, coloured by the winner.

Scoring rates

Team26-27 GF26-27 GA25-26 GF25-26 GA
Buffalo3.333.673.512.94
Minnesota3.001.673.322.93

Goals for and against per game. The estimate averages each team’s scoring with the other’s goals allowed, and leans on 2025-26 until a team has played 20 games.

Scoring rates suggest6.3Goals in this game
Last 5 meetings5.0Goals per game
Line—No total posted yet
Books at the line—With the game-day prices

Team news

9 on the injury lists

Buffalo · injuries

Alex LyonUpper BodyIRReturn10 Oct
Conor TimminsLower BodyIRReturn17 Oct
Jack RathboneUndisclosedIRReturn24 Oct
Jason ZuckerAbdomenIRReturn15 Oct
Josh DoanLower BodyDay-to-dayReturn8 Oct
Topias LeinonenLower BodyIRReturn10 Oct

Minnesota · injuries

Brock FaberSkullIRReturn15 Oct
Filip GustavssonHipIRReturn1 Nov
Nick FolignoUpper BodyDay-to-dayReturn8 Oct
2 Oct · BUF

Loaned D Dennis Gilbert to Rochester (AHL).

1 Oct · BUF

Recalled D Dennis Gilbert from Rochester (AHL). Placed G Alex Lyon and D Olen Zellweger on injured reserve. Signed D Louis Crevier to a four-year contract. Transferred F Matthew Savoie to long-term injured reserve.

14 Sep · BUF

Signed C Noah Östlund to an eight-year contract.

24 Sep · MIN

Waived for the purpose of assignment to Iowa (AHL) Ds Matt Kiersted, Carson Lambos, and Roman Schmidt and Fs Caedan Bankier, Dylan Gambrell, Justin Kirkland, Tyler Pitlick, and Mason Shaw. Assigned Ds Ben Dexheimer and Viking Gustafsson Nyberg and Fs Jagger Joshua, Hunter Haight, Riley Heidt, Rasmus Kumpulainen, and Rieger Lorenz to Iowa.

14 Jul 2026 · MIN

Signed G Filip Ruzicka to a three-year, entry-level contract.

13 Jul 2026 · MIN

Signed D Filip Ruzicka to a three-year contract.

Injury report
#4Daxon RudolphRound 1 · Prince AlbertD
#20Ilia MorozovRound 1 · MiamiC
#124Olivers MurnieksRound 4 · Saint JohnC
#156Doman SzongothRound 5 · Kookoo Jr.C
Full draft
#83Adam AnderssonRound 3 · Leksand Jr.C
#112Kayden LemireRound 4 · Prince GeorgeRW
#137Filip RuzickaRound 5 · BrandonG
Full draft

Updated after every final