Early look The full preview opens on Saturday 12 December, three days before puck drop, with the expected goalies, the latest team news and game-day prices. Until then this page shows the matchup as it stands.
Early look · NHL 2026-27

Toronto Maple Leafs at Minnesota Wild: game preview

Puck drop15 Dec · 8:00 PM ET
VenueGrand Casino Arena
All-time meetings35 completed
BasisLast 5 meetings + 2025-26
The thesis

Twenty-six points apart last season

Toronto finished last season 28th in the league on 78 points. Minnesota finished 7th on 104.

Game-day prices arrive with the afternoon snapshot, about 4:30 PM ET on the day of the game.

Head-to-head

Meeting number 36

Across 35 completed games, Toronto lead the head-to-head 18-14-3.

All-time record18-14-3Toronto's record in the series
Meetings played35This is number 36
2025-26 series—
Last 53-2Minnesota
DateResultShotsPower playWinner
15 Mar 2026TOR 4 – MIN 2——TOR
19 Jan 2026MIN 6 – TOR 3——MIN
29 Jan 2025MIN 3 – TOR 1——MIN
3 Nov 2024TOR 1 – MIN 2 OT——MIN
19 Nov 2023TOR 4 – MIN 3 OT——TOR
Head-to-head finder

The table on each 2025-26 meeting night

DateTorontoMinnesota
19 Jan 202624-17-8 · 56 pts14th28-13-9 · 65 pts3rd
15 Mar 202629-27-12 · 70 pts22nd38-18-12 · 88 pts5th

League rank after that night's games; a longer bar is a higher place. On 19 Jan 2026, Toronto were 14th in the league and Minnesota 3rd. By 15 Mar 2026 it was 22nd and 5th.


Where the shots come from · last 5 meetings

Minnesota out-attempted Toronto 163 to 102

Every attempt from the last meetings, both teams shooting right.

Toronto Maple Leafs

102 att · 56 on goal · 7 G · 12.5%
Crease9 att · 2 G
Slot34 att · 2 G
Wing48 att · 2 G
Point9 att · 1 G
Neutral zone2 att · 0 G

Minnesota Wild

163 att · 77 on goal · 8 G · 10.4%
Crease15 att · 2 G
Slot64 att · 4 G
Wing59 att · 2 G
Point23 att · 0 G
Neutral zone2 att · 0 G
GoalOn goalMissedBlocked

Expected goals

Minnesota have created the better chances, last 10 games

Shot quality both ways: expected goals weigh every unblocked attempt by its chance of scoring. Finishing above zero means more goals than the chances.

TorontoMinnesota
3.40xG for per game3.01
3.21xG against per game2.83
51.4%xG share51.5%
−2.6FinishingGoals minus expected goals−0.0
+1.9GoaltendingExpected goals against minus goals allowed+3.5

This season: 4 games for Toronto, 3 for Minnesota. Small sample: early-season xG moves a lot from night to night.

Every team’s xG →


Special teams

Power play and penalty kill, season and series

This season's rates first, then 2025-26 and the last meetings between the two. Power-play chances are counted from the penalty log with coincidental minors cancelled; faceoffs are each club's wins over draws taken.

All bars share one scale · 0–100%SeasonLast meetings

Toronto

Small sample
Power play · 2026-2721.4%
Power play · 2025-2621.3% · 15th
Power play · last 5 meetings—
Penalty kill · 2026-2790.9%
Penalty kill · 2025-2681.2% · 8th
Faceoffs · 2026-2751.1% · 113/221
Drawn · 2026-2714 (3.50/gm)
Drawn · last meetings0 (0.00/gm)
Shorthanded · 2026-2711 (2.75/gm)
PP goals · last meetings0

Minnesota

Small sample
Power play · 2026-2736.4%
Power play · 2025-2625.2% · 3rd
Power play · last 5 meetings—
Penalty kill · 2026-27100.0%
Penalty kill · 2025-2679.8% · 16th
Faceoffs · 2026-2748.0% · 84/175
Drawn · 2026-2711 (3.67/gm)
Drawn · last meetings0 (0.00/gm)
Shorthanded · 2026-279 (3.00/gm)
PP goals · last meetings0

Skaters

Skaters to watch

Each club's top three forwards and defencemen by points this season, with 2025-26 one tap away.

PlayerGPGAPP/GP
34Auston Matthews42351.25
91John Tavares41230.75
97Kirill Kaprizov33031.00
20Blake Coleman31120.67
Points leaders
PlayerGPGAPP/GP
44Morgan Rielly40330.75
43Darren Raddysh40110.25
43Quinn Hughes31341.33
46Jared Spurgeon31231.00
3Olli Maatta30110.33
Defencemen stats

Goaltending

Who has stopped this matchup

Save percentage in the last meetings by goalie. Starters are confirmed on game day.

Expected startersAn estimate until the teams confirmEvery game tonight →

Expected starter after their game on 13 Dec: a back-to-back depends on who plays that night.

Expected starter after their game on 12 Dec: a back-to-back depends on who plays that night.

Toronto crease

TOR · 2026-27 Starter estimate from 12 Dec

Sergei Bobrovsky.8872 GP · 0-2-0 · GSAx +0.1
Anthony Stolarz.9042 GP · 2-0-0 · GSAx +0.6

No appearances against Minnesota in the last meetings.

Minnesota crease

MIN · 2026-27 Starter estimate from 12 Dec

Jesper Wallstedt.9333 GP · 2-0-1 · GSAx +3.5

No appearances against Toronto in the last meetings.


Totals

Scoring rates point to about 6.2 goals

No total is posted yet: it arrives with the game-day prices. Until then, the scoring rates and the recent meetings set the range.

Goals in the last 5 meetings

15 Mar 20266 · TOR 4–2 MIN
19 Jan 20269 · MIN 6–3 TOR
29 Jan 20254 · MIN 3–1 TOR
3 Nov 20243 · TOR 1–2 MIN
19 Nov 20237 · TOR 4–3 MIN

Bar length is total goals, coloured by the winner.

Scoring rates

Team26-27 GF26-27 GA25-26 GF25-26 GA
Toronto2.752.753.093.65
Minnesota3.001.673.322.93

Goals for and against per game. The estimate averages each team’s scoring with the other’s goals allowed, and leans on 2025-26 until a team has played 20 games.

Scoring rates suggest6.2Goals in this game
Last 5 meetings5.8Goals per game
Line—No total posted yet
Books at the line—With the game-day prices

Team news

8 on the injury lists

Toronto · injuries

Cade WebberElbowIRReturn31 Oct
Dakota JoshuaAbdomenIRReturn24 Oct
Elvis MerzlikinsShoulderIRReturn30 Mar
Max DomiBackIRReturn21 Nov
William VilleneuveKneeIRReturn31 Oct

Minnesota · injuries

Brock FaberSkullIRReturn15 Oct
Filip GustavssonHipIRReturn1 Nov
Nick FolignoUpper BodyDay-to-dayReturn8 Oct
5 Oct · TOR

Placed RW Nikita Grebenkin on injured reserve.

30 Sep · TOR

Moved C Max Domi from the non-roster list to long-term injured reserve.

29 Sep · TOR

Placed D Cade Webber on the injured non-roster list.

24 Sep · MIN

Waived for the purpose of assignment to Iowa (AHL) Ds Matt Kiersted, Carson Lambos, and Roman Schmidt and Fs Caedan Bankier, Dylan Gambrell, Justin Kirkland, Tyler Pitlick, and Mason Shaw. Assigned Ds Ben Dexheimer and Viking Gustafsson Nyberg and Fs Jagger Joshua, Hunter Haight, Riley Heidt, Rasmus Kumpulainen, and Rieger Lorenz to Iowa.

14 Jul 2026 · MIN

Signed G Filip Ruzicka to a three-year, entry-level contract.

13 Jul 2026 · MIN

Signed D Filip Ruzicka to a three-year contract.

Injury report
#1Gavin McKennaRound 1 · Penn StateLW
#60Alexander BileckiRound 2 · KitchenerD
#69Ethan MacKenzieRound 3 · EdmontonD
#73Zach OlsenRound 3 · SaskatoonRW
Full draft
#83Adam AnderssonRound 3 · Leksand Jr.C
#112Kayden LemireRound 4 · Prince GeorgeRW
#137Filip RuzickaRound 5 · BrandonG
Full draft

Updated after every final