RecapThis page was the preview until puck drop. Preview as published ↓Sunday 4 October · Little Caesars Arena · Meeting No. 26

FINAL

Winnipeg2-0-1 · 5 ptsPerfetti 13:04 PP · Connor 14:36 PP · Connor 05:41 PP

Detroit1-2-0 · 2 ptsArvidsson 16:52 PP · Finnie 04:56

By period

123T

Winnipeg2103

Detroit0112

Pre-game favouriteDET 50.3%Lost

First starK. Connor2 G · 1 A

Game stats

27Shots35

3.3Expected goals4.2

3/4Power play1/5

20Hits25

15Blocks12

Full box score ↓

Recap · data desk

Connor scores the winner as Winnipeg beat Detroit 3-2

Detroit out-shot Winnipeg 35-27. The pre-game price had DET at 50.3%.

Pucks & Stats Data Desk 4 Oct

1st period: C. Perfetti (WPG), K. Connor (WPG). 2nd period: K. Connor (WPG), V. Arvidsson (DET). 3rd period: E. Finnie (DET).

Kyle Connor led Winnipeg with 2 goals and 1 assist. Stuart Skinner stopped 34 of 36 shots. On expected goals it was Winnipeg 3.3, Detroit 4.2. The chances favoured the side that lost. On the power play Winnipeg went 3 for 4 and Detroit 1 for 5.

Shots27-35Winnipeg first

Power play3/4Winnipeg

Lead changes0

DecidedRegulationWinner at 05:41

How it turned

1st period

13:04Cole Perfetti (goal 1)Assists: K. Connor, J. MorrisseyPP1-0

14:36Kyle Connor (goal 2)Assists: G. Vilardi, C. PerfettiPP2-0

2nd period

05:41Kyle Connor (goal 3)Assists: J. Morrissey, C. PerfettiPP · GWG3-0

16:52Viktor Arvidsson (goal 1)Assists: A. Copp, M. SeiderPP3-1

3rd period

04:56Emmitt Finnie (goal 1)Assists: M. Brandsegg-Nygård, A. DeBrincatEV3-2

Where the goals came from

Winnipeg attacking leftDetroit attacking right

GoalOn goalMissedBlocked

How the chances built

Winnipeg 3.31 xGDetroit 4.17 xGDots are goals · hover for the shot

Running total of expected goals for each team, regulation and overtime. A steep climb is a spell of good chances; a goal dot above the other line came against the run of play.

The upset

Market, pre-game50.3% DETMissed

Last season's table59.6% DETMissed

Total goals5Under 5.5

How each market settled ↓

What’s next

Winnipeg host Colorado on Wednesday 7 October. Detroit host Seattle on Friday 9 October.

Winnipeg Jets Detroit Red Wings

Three stars

1 K. Connor2 G · 1 A

2 C. Perfetti1 G · 2 A

3 V. Arvidsson1 G · 0 A

All-time14-10-1Winnipeg lead

Meetings26Including this game

Head-to-head finder

Futures after the final

Partner prices · implied, venue average

TeamCupPlayoffs

Winnipeg0.5%21.5%

Detroit0.5%13.5%

Snapshot 7 Oct, 10:42 AM ET. "Best" is the cheapest price to buy Yes after venue fees. Prices are snapshots taken every 15 minutes (season futures hourly), not live. Prediction markets carry risk of loss and are not available in every jurisdiction. 18+/21+ where applicable. How markets work · Affiliate disclosure

Stanley Cup odds

Full game data

Box score

Winnipeg

#SkaterGAPSOG+/-FO%TOI

81Kyle Connor2135−1—20:05

91Cole Perfetti1232−10.0%17:10

44Josh Morrissey02270—21:33

13Gabriel Vilardi0112033.3%14:41

4Neal Pionk0003−1—23:53

2Dylan DeMelo0000−1—20:53

38Mario Ferraro00000—20:17

54Dylan Samberg00000—19:50

55Mark Scheifele0002−141.7%18:06

36Morgan Barron000100.0%17:46

17Adam Lowry0000036.8%15:17

61Viggo Björck0001030.0%13:21

7Vladislav Namestnikov0001062.5%13:09

27Isak Rosen00000—12:54

9Alex Iafallo00010—11:44

62Nino Niederreiter00000—11:15

93Brad Lambert000200.0%10:27

77Tyrel Bauer00000—8:35

Detroit

#SkaterGAPSOG+/-FO%TOI

33Viktor Arvidsson10140100.0%21:24

58Emmitt Finnie1012+161.5%16:56

53Moritz Seider01130—25:41

18Andrew Copp0111076.2%23:44

93Alex DeBrincat0114+1—23:16

28Michael Brandsegg-Nygård0116+1—19:33

23Lucas Raymond00020—23:55

72Justin Faulk00030—19:32

8Ben Chiarot0001+1—17:23

27Michael Rasmussen000400.0%16:09

44Axel Sandin-Pellikka0003+1—15:37

42Anton Johansson00000—13:30

37J.T. Compher0002030.0%12:51

20Albert Johansson00010—12:37

55Keegan Kolesar00000—10:49

22Mason Appleton000000.0%9:23

29Nate Danielson0000057.1%8:09

24Andreas Englund00000—7:15

Markets

How each market settled

Market · closing priceMarketKalshiKalshiPolymarketPolyProphetXProphetXSettled

Detroit to winMoneyline50¢50¢50¢0¢

Winnipeg to winMoneyline50¢51¢51¢100¢

Closing price = each venue’s midpoint at the last snapshot before puck drop. Settlement follows each venue’s rules; shown for information only. "Best" is the cheapest price to buy Yes after venue fees. Prices are snapshots taken every 15 minutes (season futures hourly), not live. Prediction markets carry risk of loss and are not available in every jurisdiction. 18+/21+ where applicable.

Before the game · as published 4 Oct, 9:12 AM ET

The thesisTen points apart, priced as a coin flip

The thesis

Ten points apart, priced as a coin flip

Winnipeg finished last season 26th in the league on 82 points. Detroit finished 16th on 92, and the 2025-26 season series went DET 2-0-0.

With the bookmaker margin removed, 5 US books price Detroit at 50.3% at home. Last season's table, adjusted for home ice, would put them at 59.6%.

Where the market disagrees with the table

Table: 59.6% DETMarket: 50.3% DET

Table probability uses 2025-26 points percentage (.561 vs .500) with home-ice advantage. The market rates Detroit 9.3 points lower than last season's table does.

Method

Head-to-headMeeting number 26

Head-to-head

Meeting number 26

Across 25 completed games, Winnipeg lead the head-to-head 14-10-1.

All-time record14-10-1Winnipeg's record in the series

Meetings played25This is number 26

2025-26 seriesDET 2-0-0

Last 53-2Detroit

Last 5 meetings

See all: Last 5 meetings →

DateResultShotsPower playWinner

24 Jan 2026DET 5 – WPG 131–27DET 0/3 · WPG 0/1DET

31 Dec 2025WPG 1 – DET 224–19WPG 0/3 · DET 1/3DET

4 Jan 2025DET 4 – WPG 229–23DET 2/3 · WPG 0/2DET

30 Oct 2024WPG 6 – DET 229–21WPG 1/2 · DET 2/3WPG

20 Dec 2023DET 2 – WPG 528–41DET 0/2 · WPG 0/0WPG

Head-to-head finder

The table on each 2025-26 meeting night

DateWinnipegDetroit

31 Dec 202515-19-4 · 34 pts32nd24-14-3 · 51 pts5th

24 Jan 202620-24-7 · 47 pts29th32-16-5 · 69 pts3rd

League rank after that night's games; a longer bar is a higher place. On 31 Dec 2025, Winnipeg were 32nd in the league and Detroit 5th. By 24 Jan 2026 it was 29th and 3rd.

Special teamsPower play and penalty kill, season and series

Special teams

Power play and penalty kill, season and series

This season's rates first, then 2025-26 and the last meetings between the two. Power-play chances are counted from the penalty log with coincidental minors cancelled; faceoffs are each club's wins over draws taken.

All bars share one scale · 0–100%SeasonLast meetings

Winnipeg

Small sample

Power play · 2026-2733.3%

Power play · 2025-2618.5% · 24th

Power play · last 5 meetings1/8 · 12.5%

Penalty kill · 2026-27100.0%

Penalty kill · 2025-2677.6% · 21st

Faceoffs · 2026-2748.3% · 28/58

Drawn · 2026-273 (3.00/gm)

Drawn · last meetings8 (1.60/gm)

Shorthanded · 2026-272 (2.00/gm)

PP goals · last meetings1

Detroit

Small sample

Power play · 2026-270.0%

Power play · 2025-2622.6% · 12th

Power play · last 5 meetings5/14 · 35.7%

Penalty kill · 2026-2775.0%

Penalty kill · 2025-2677.1% · 23rd

Faceoffs · 2026-2753.0% · 35/66

Drawn · 2026-272 (2.00/gm)

Drawn · last meetings14 (2.80/gm)

Shorthanded · 2026-274 (4.00/gm)

PP goals · last meetings5

Goaltending and injuriesJohn Gibson has started most of these meetings

Goaltending

John Gibson has started most of these meetings

John Gibson played 2 of the last 5 meetings with Winnipeg, with a .961 save percentage. Starters are confirmed on game day.

Expected startersAn estimate until the teams confirmEvery game tonight →

Winnipeg

Expected starter#74 Stuart Skinner

88%Likely

Started 1 of 1 this season

2026-27: 1 GP · .867 SV% · GSAx −1

Also possible: Stevenson 12%

Injured: Hellebuyck (injured reserve)

Detroit

Expected starter#36 John Gibson

93%Likely

Started 1 of 1 this season
57 of the team's last 82 starts

2026-27: 1 GP · .950 SV% · GSAx +1

Also possible: Tarasov 7%

Connor Hellebuyck

See all: Connor Hellebuyck →

WPG · 23-23-11 in 2025-26 IRReturn 17 Oct

SV% · 2025-26.89557 GP · 2.86 GAA

vs Detroit.8884 app · 98 SA · 11 GA

GSAx · 2025-26+3.257 starts

vs DETVenueSAGASV%

24 Jan 2026home304.867

31 Dec 2025away192.895

4 Jan 2025home283.893

30 Oct 2024away212.905

Also on the roster, 2026-27: Stuart Skinner .867 (1 GP)

Full game log

John Gibson

See all: John Gibson →

DET · 0-1-0 in 2026-27 Expected starter · 93%

SV% · 2026-27.9501 GP · 1.02 GAA · 2025-26 .901

vs Winnipeg.9612 app · 51 SA · 2 GA

GSAx · 2026-27+0.81 start · most on the roster

vs WPGVenueSAGASV%

24 Jan 2026away271.963

31 Dec 2025home241.958

Full game log

Team news

10 on the injury lists

Winnipeg · injuries

Connor HellebuyckSuspensionIRReturn17 Oct

Elias SalomonssonShoulderIRReturn15 Oct

Garrett BrownLower BodyIRReturn9 Oct

Walker DuehrLower BodyIRReturn17 Oct

Detroit · injuries

Carter BearUpper BodyIRReturn6 Oct

Chase StillmanUndisclosedIRReturn4 Oct

Dylan LarkinUpper BodyIRReturn6 Oct

Jacob Bernard-DockerUpper BodyIRReturn9 Oct

Marco KasperUpper BodyOutReturn6 Oct

Simon EdvinssonContract DisputeOutReturn4 Oct

Latest moves

See all: Latest moves →

10 Aug 2026 · WPG

Signed F Tyrel Bauer to a two-year contract.

15 Jul 2026 · WPG

Signed F Cole Perfetti to a five-year contract.

13 Jul 2026 · WPG

Signed F Viggo Björck to a three-year contract.

2 Oct · DET

Placed F Dylan Larkin on the non-roster injured reserve.

25 Sep · DET

Assigned Fs Ondrej Becher, Cameron Butler, Sheldon Dries, Noah Dower Nilsson, Dylan James, Jesse Kiiskinen, John Leonard, Sutter Muzzatti, Theo Rochette, Dominik Shine and Wilmer Skoog, Ds Ronnie Attard, Jacob Bryson, Shai Buium and William Lagesson and Gs Trey Augustine and Michal Postava to Grand Rapids (AHL).

20 Aug 2026 · DET

Acquired F Sutter Muzzatti from Nashville Predators for future considerations.

Injury report

Winnipeg · 2026 draft

See all: Winnipeg · 2026 draft →

#8Viggo BjorckRound 1 · DjurgardenC

#71Samuel HrenakRound 3 · FargoG

#116Zach WootenRound 4 · Green BayLW

#135Alexandre TailleferRound 5 · QuebecD

Full draft

Detroit · 2026 draft

See all: Detroit · 2026 draft →

#23Jeffrey (JP) HurlbertRound 1 · KamloopsLW

#47Victor PlanteRound 2 · Usa U-18LW

#79Michal OrsulakRound 3 · Prince AlbertG

#108Adam LevacRound 4 · PeterboroughC

Full draft

Sunday 4 October · the full slate

See all: Sunday 4 October · the full slate →

1:00 PM ET

WPGat

DETThis game 6:00 PM ET

Shots, skaters, totals and marketsWinnipeg out-attempted Detroit 287 to 265

Where the shots come from · last 5 meetings

Winnipeg out-attempted Detroit 287 to 265

Every attempt from the last meetings, both teams shooting right.

Winnipeg Jets

287 att · 144 on goal · 15 G · 10.4%

Crease17 att · 2 G

Slot118 att · 8 G

Wing98 att · 3 G

Point51 att · 2 G

Neutral zone3 att · 0 G

Detroit Red Wings

265 att · 128 on goal · 15 G · 11.7%

Crease14 att · 2 G

Slot82 att · 8 G

Wing114 att · 5 G

Point45 att · 0 G

Neutral zone10 att · 0 G

GoalOn goalMissedBlocked

Skaters

Lucas Raymond has 8 points in the last 5 meetings

Left, production across the last meetings. Right, each club's scoring leaders this season, with 2025-26 one tap away.

In the last meetings

See all: In the last meetings →

PlayerGPGAPSOG

23Lucas Raymond52689

53Moritz Seider50778

71Dylan Larkin541516

13Gabriel Vilardi52358

88Patrick Kane51456

4Neal Pionk43147

93Alex DeBrincat530312

37J.T. Compher52139

27Nikolaj Ehlers32139

81Kyle Connor412315

Head-to-head finder

Lucas Raymond vs Winnipeg · game by game

See all: Lucas Raymond vs Winnipeg · game by game →

DateVenueGAPSOGTOI

24 Jan 2026away112318:22

31 Dec 2025home011117:33

4 Jan 2025away123317:42

30 Oct 2024home022115:36

20 Dec 2023away000115:34

Last 5 meetings8 P2 G, 6 A · 9 SOG

Next best7 PMoritz Seider, DET

2026-27 season0 P1 GP · 0 G

Blank vs WPG1 of 5

Full game log

Totals

A total in line with recent meetings

The board sits at 5.5. The last 5 meetings averaged 6.0 goals and went over 5.5 4 times.

line 5.5

0123456789

Dot colour: the winner of that meeting · goals per game

Last 5 avg6.0Goals per game

Over 5.54 of 5

Books at the line3Posting 5.5

Lowest3 goals

Prediction markets

Two markets, one coin flip

US and Canadian books are kept apart because they are separate markets with different books and prices.

Moneyline by market

SelectionBestAvgFair

United States · 5 books

Winnipeg51¢52¢49.7%

Detroit52¢52¢50.3%

Canada · 2 books

Winnipeg51¢52¢48.7%

Detroit54¢54¢51.3%

Snapshot 3 Oct, 4:24 PM ET

Lines on the board

Total 5.53 books

Puck line DET -1.53 books

Puck line WPG +1.53 books

Total 6.02 books

Sportsbook prices are shown as implied cents (100 ÷ decimal odds) so they compare directly with prediction-market prices. Fair = margin removed. Snapshot 4 Oct, 9:07 AM ET. "Best" is the cheapest price to buy Yes after venue fees. Prices are snapshots taken every 15 minutes (season futures hourly), not live. Prediction markets carry risk of loss and are not available in every jurisdiction. 18+/21+ where applicable. How markets work · Affiliate disclosure

Updated after every final · Closing 3 Oct, 4:24 PM ET

Connor scores the winner as Winnipeg beat Detroit 3-2

How it turned

Where the goals came from

How the chances built

The upset

What’s next

Box score

Winnipeg

Detroit

How each market settled

Ten points apart, priced as a coin flip

Where the market disagrees with the table

Meeting number 26

Last 5 meetings

The table on each 2025-26 meeting night

Power play and penalty kill, season and series

Winnipeg

Detroit

John Gibson has started most of these meetings

Connor Hellebuyck

John Gibson

10 on the injury lists

Winnipeg · injuries

Detroit · injuries

Latest moves

Winnipeg · 2026 draft

Detroit · 2026 draft

Sunday 4 October · the full slate

Winnipeg out-attempted Detroit 287 to 265

Winnipeg Jets

Detroit Red Wings

Lucas Raymond has 8 points in the last 5 meetings

In the last meetings

Season leaders

Lucas Raymond vs Winnipeg · game by game

A total in line with recent meetings

Two markets, one coin flip

Moneyline by market

Lines on the board