Early look The full preview opens on Saturday 13 February, three days before puck drop, with the expected goalies, the latest team news and game-day prices. Until then this page shows the matchup as it stands.
Early look · NHL 2026-27

Carolina Hurricanes at Toronto Maple Leafs: game preview

Puck drop16 Feb · 7:00 PM ET
VenueScotiabank Arena
All-time meetings101 completed
BasisLast 5 meetings + 2025-26
The thesis

Thirty-five points apart last season

Carolina finished last season 2nd in the league on 113 points. Toronto finished 28th on 78.

Game-day prices arrive with the afternoon snapshot, about 4:30 PM ET on the day of the game.

Head-to-head

Meeting number 102

Across 101 completed games, Carolina lead the head-to-head 55-38-8.

All-time record55-38-8Carolina's record in the series
Meetings played101This is number 102
2025-26 series—
Last 53-2Toronto
DateResultShotsPower playWinner
20 Mar 2026CAR 4 – TOR 3 OT——CAR
4 Dec 2025TOR 5 – CAR 1——TOR
9 Nov 2025CAR 5 – TOR 4——CAR
13 Apr 2025TOR 4 – CAR 1——TOR
22 Feb 2025CAR 3 – TOR 6——TOR
Head-to-head finder

The table on each 2025-26 meeting night

DateCarolinaToronto
9 Nov 202511-4-0 · 22 pts3rd8-7-1 · 17 pts19th
4 Dec 202516-8-2 · 34 pts5th13-11-3 · 29 pts21st
20 Mar 202644-19-6 · 94 pts3rd29-28-13 · 71 pts25th

League rank after that night's games; a longer bar is a higher place. On 9 Nov 2025, Carolina were 3rd in the league and Toronto 19th. By 20 Mar 2026 it was 3rd and 25th.


Where the shots come from · last 5 meetings

Carolina out-attempted Toronto 245 to 117

Every attempt from the last meetings, both teams shooting right.

Carolina Hurricanes

245 att · 116 on goal · 10 G · 8.6%
Crease23 att · 1 G
Slot93 att · 5 G
Wing95 att · 3 G
Point32 att · 1 G
Neutral zone2 att · 0 G

Toronto Maple Leafs

117 att · 70 on goal · 12 G · 17.1%
Crease14 att · 4 G
Slot47 att · 7 G
Wing36 att · 1 G
Point14 att · 0 G
Neutral zone6 att · 0 G
GoalOn goalMissedBlocked

Expected goals

Carolina have created the better chances, last 10 games

Shot quality both ways: expected goals weigh every unblocked attempt by its chance of scoring. Finishing above zero means more goals than the chances.

CarolinaToronto
3.74xG for per game3.40
2.21xG against per game3.21
62.9%xG share51.4%
−4.0FinishingGoals minus expected goals−2.6
−3.2GoaltendingExpected goals against minus goals allowed+1.9

This season: 4 games for Carolina, 4 for Toronto. Small sample: early-season xG moves a lot from night to night.

Every team’s xG →


Special teams

Power play and penalty kill, season and series

This season's rates first, then 2025-26 and the last meetings between the two. Power-play chances are counted from the penalty log with coincidental minors cancelled; faceoffs are each club's wins over draws taken.

All bars share one scale · 0–100%SeasonLast meetings

Carolina

Small sample
Power play · 2026-2719.0%
Power play · 2025-2624.9% · 4th
Power play · last 5 meetings—
Penalty kill · 2026-2789.5%
Penalty kill · 2025-2680.5% · 11th
Faceoffs · 2026-2752.1% · 125/240
Drawn · 2026-2721 (5.25/gm)
Drawn · last meetings0 (0.00/gm)
Shorthanded · 2026-2719 (4.75/gm)
PP goals · last meetings0

Toronto

Small sample
Power play · 2026-2721.4%
Power play · 2025-2621.3% · 15th
Power play · last 5 meetings—
Penalty kill · 2026-2790.9%
Penalty kill · 2025-2681.2% · 8th
Faceoffs · 2026-2751.1% · 113/221
Drawn · 2026-2714 (3.50/gm)
Drawn · last meetings0 (0.00/gm)
Shorthanded · 2026-2711 (2.75/gm)
PP goals · last meetings0

Skaters

Skaters to watch

Each club's top three forwards and defencemen by points this season, with 2025-26 one tap away.

PlayerGPGAPP/GP
20Sebastian Aho44371.75
53Jackson Blake40330.75
34Auston Matthews42351.25
91John Tavares41230.75
Points leaders
PlayerGPGAPP/GP
74Jaccob Slavin40220.50
44Morgan Rielly40330.75
43Darren Raddysh40110.25
Defencemen stats

Goaltending

Who has stopped this matchup

Save percentage in the last meetings by goalie. Starters are confirmed on game day.

Expected startersAn estimate until the teams confirmEvery game tonight →

Expected starter after their game on 13 Feb: a back-to-back depends on who plays that night.

Expected starter after their game on 13 Feb: a back-to-back depends on who plays that night.

Carolina crease

CAR · 2026-27 Starter estimate from 13 Feb

Brandon Bussi.8513 GP · 1-1-1 · GSAx −3.7
Pyotr Kochetkov.8891 GP · 1-0-0 · GSAx +0.5

No appearances against Toronto in the last meetings.

Toronto crease

TOR · 2026-27 Starter estimate from 13 Feb

Sergei Bobrovsky.8872 GP · 0-2-0 · GSAx +0.1
Anthony Stolarz.9042 GP · 2-0-0 · GSAx +0.6

No appearances against Carolina in the last meetings.


Totals

Scoring rates point to about 6.4 goals

No total is posted yet: it arrives with the game-day prices. Until then, the scoring rates and the recent meetings set the range.

Goals in the last 5 meetings

20 Mar 20267 · CAR 4–3 TOR
4 Dec 20256 · TOR 5–1 CAR
9 Nov 20259 · CAR 5–4 TOR
13 Apr 20255 · TOR 4–1 CAR
22 Feb 20259 · CAR 3–6 TOR

Bar length is total goals, coloured by the winner.

Scoring rates

Team26-27 GF26-27 GA25-26 GF25-26 GA
Carolina2.753.003.612.93
Toronto2.752.753.093.65

Goals for and against per game. The estimate averages each team’s scoring with the other’s goals allowed, and leans on 2025-26 until a team has played 20 games.

Scoring rates suggest6.4Goals in this game
Last 5 meetings7.2Goals per game
Line—No total posted yet
Books at the line—With the game-day prices

Team news

7 on the injury lists

Carolina · injuries

Alexander NikishinContract DisputeOutReturn10 Oct
Seth JarvisShoulderIRReturn24 Oct

Toronto · injuries

Cade WebberElbowIRReturn31 Oct
Dakota JoshuaAbdomenIRReturn24 Oct
Elvis MerzlikinsShoulderIRReturn30 Mar
Max DomiBackIRReturn21 Nov
William VilleneuveKneeIRReturn31 Oct
30 Sep · CAR

Placed G Cayden Primeau on waivers.

27 Sep · CAR

Placed C Seth Jarvis on the injured non-roster list. Placed LD Juuso Valimaki on waivers.

27 Sep · CAR

Placed C Seth Jarvis on the injured non-roster list. Placed D Juuso Valimaki on waivers.

5 Oct · TOR

Placed RW Nikita Grebenkin on injured reserve.

30 Sep · TOR

Moved C Max Domi from the non-roster list to long-term injured reserve.

29 Sep · TOR

Placed D Cade Webber on the injured non-roster list.

Injury report
#51William HakanssonRound 2 · LuleaD
#61Wiggo SorenssonRound 2 · Boro/vetlandaC
#68Zachary LansardRound 3 · ReginaRW
#105Michael BerchildRound 4 · Usa U-18LW
Full draft
#1Gavin McKennaRound 1 · Penn StateLW
#60Alexander BileckiRound 2 · KitchenerD
#69Ethan MacKenzieRound 3 · EdmontonD
#73Zach OlsenRound 3 · SaskatoonRW
Full draft

Updated after every final