Early look · NHL 2026-27

Toronto Maple Leafs at Tampa Bay Lightning: game preview

TorontoMaple Leafs2026-27: 2-2-0 · 4 pts · 2025-26: 32-36-14 · 78 pts · 28that

Tampa BayLightning2026-27: 2-1-0 · 4 pts · 2025-26: 50-26-6 · 106 pts · 5th

Puck drop30 Mar · 7:00 PM ET

VenueBenchmark International Arena

All-time meetings135 completed

BasisLast 5 meetings + 2025-26

The thesis

Twenty-eight points apart last season

Toronto finished last season 28th in the league on 78 points. Tampa Bay finished 5th on 106, and the 2025-26 season series went TBL 2-1-0.

Game-day prices arrive with the afternoon snapshot, about 4:30 PM ET on the day of the game.

Head-to-head

Meeting number 136

Across 135 completed games, Toronto lead the head-to-head 77-47-11.

All-time record77-47-11Toronto's record in the series

Meetings played135This is number 136

2025-26 seriesTBL 2-1-0

Last 53-2Toronto

Last 5 meetings

See all: Last 5 meetings →

DateResultShotsPower playWinner

7 Mar 2026TBL 5 – TOR 2——TBL

25 Feb 2026TOR 2 – TBL 4——TBL

8 Dec 2025TBL 0 – TOR 2——TOR

9 Apr 2025TOR 4 – TBL 3 OT——TOR

20 Jan 2025TBL 3 – TOR 5——TOR

Head-to-head finder

The table on each 2025-26 meeting night

DateTorontoTampa Bay

8 Dec 202514-11-4 · 32 pts18th16-11-2 · 34 pts12th

25 Feb 202624-19-9 · 57 pts18th33-14-4 · 70 pts2nd

7 Mar 202624-19-9 · 57 pts18th33-14-4 · 70 pts2nd

League rank after that night's games; a longer bar is a higher place. On 8 Dec 2025, Toronto were 18th in the league and Tampa Bay 12th. By 7 Mar 2026 it was 18th and 2nd.

Where the shots come from · last 5 meetings

Tampa Bay out-attempted Toronto 191 to 152

Every attempt from the last meetings, both teams shooting right.

Toronto Maple Leafs

152 att · 88 on goal · 6 G · 6.8%

Crease14 att · 1 G

Slot59 att · 3 G

Wing57 att · 1 G

Point16 att · 0 G

Neutral zone6 att · 1 G

Tampa Bay Lightning

191 att · 98 on goal · 9 G · 9.2%

Crease15 att · 1 G

Slot79 att · 4 G

Wing72 att · 4 G

Point21 att · 0 G

Neutral zone4 att · 0 G

GoalOn goalMissedBlocked

Expected goals

Tampa Bay have created the better chances, last 10 games

Shot quality both ways: expected goals weigh every unblocked attempt by its chance of scoring. Finishing above zero means more goals than the chances.

TorontoTampa Bay

3.40xG for per game4.04

3.21xG against per game2.64

51.4%xG share60.5%

−2.6FinishingGoals minus expected goals−4.1

+1.9GoaltendingExpected goals against minus goals allowed+0.9

This season: 4 games for Toronto, 3 for Tampa Bay. Small sample: early-season xG moves a lot from night to night.

Every team’s xG →

Special teams

Power play and penalty kill, season and series

This season's rates first, then 2025-26 and the last meetings between the two. Power-play chances are counted from the penalty log with coincidental minors cancelled; faceoffs are each club's wins over draws taken.

All bars share one scale · 0–100%SeasonLast meetings

Toronto

Small sample

Power play · 2026-2721.4%

Power play · 2025-2621.3% · 15th

Power play · last 5 meetings—

Penalty kill · 2026-2790.9%

Penalty kill · 2025-2681.2% · 8th

Faceoffs · 2026-2751.1% · 113/221

Drawn · 2026-2714 (3.50/gm)

Drawn · last meetings0 (0.00/gm)

Shorthanded · 2026-2711 (2.75/gm)

PP goals · last meetings0

Tampa Bay

Small sample

Power play · 2026-270.0%

Power play · 2025-2620.7% · 17th

Power play · last 5 meetings—

Penalty kill · 2026-2785.7%

Penalty kill · 2025-2682.6% · 3rd

Faceoffs · 2026-2748.2% · 81/168

Drawn · 2026-2713 (4.33/gm)

Drawn · last meetings0 (0.00/gm)

Shorthanded · 2026-277 (2.33/gm)

PP goals · last meetings0

Skaters

Skaters to watch

Each club's top three forwards and defencemen by points this season, with 2025-26 one tap away.

Forwards to watch

See all: Forwards to watch →

PlayerGPGAPP/GP

88William Nylander43361.50

34Auston Matthews42351.25

91John Tavares41230.75

86Nikita Kucherov31341.33

59Jake Guentzel31231.00

38Brandon Hagel31231.00

Points leaders

Defencemen to watch

See all: Defencemen to watch →

PlayerGPGAPP/GP

44Morgan Rielly40330.75

43Darren Raddysh40110.25

95Oliver Ekman-Larsson40000.00

74John Carlson30220.67

51Charle-Edouard D'Astous31010.33

27Ryan McDonagh30000.00

Defencemen stats

Goaltending

Who has stopped this matchup

Save percentage in the last meetings by goalie. Starters are confirmed on game day.

Expected startersAn estimate until the teams confirmEvery game tonight →

Toronto

Expected starter after their game on 28 Mar: a back-to-back depends on who plays that night.

Tampa Bay

Expected starter after their game on 27 Mar: a back-to-back depends on who plays that night.

Toronto crease

TOR · 2026-27 Starter estimate from 27 Mar

Sergei Bobrovsky.8872 GP · 0-2-0 · GSAx +0.1

Anthony Stolarz.9042 GP · 2-0-0 · GSAx +0.6

No appearances against Tampa Bay in the last meetings.

Tampa Bay crease

TBL · 2026-27 Starter estimate from 27 Mar

Andrei Vasilevskiy.8983 GP · 2-1-0 · GSAx +1.0

No appearances against Toronto in the last meetings.

Totals

Scoring rates point to about 6.3 goals

No total is posted yet: it arrives with the game-day prices. Until then, the scoring rates and the recent meetings set the range.

Goals in the last 5 meetings

7 Mar 20267 · TBL 5–2 TOR

25 Feb 20266 · TOR 2–4 TBL

8 Dec 20252 · TBL 0–2 TOR

9 Apr 20257 · TOR 4–3 TBL

20 Jan 20258 · TBL 3–5 TOR

Bar length is total goals, coloured by the winner.

Scoring rates

Team26-27 GF26-27 GA25-26 GF25-26 GA

Toronto2.752.753.093.65

Tampa Bay2.672.333.542.82

Goals for and against per game. The estimate averages each team’s scoring with the other’s goals allowed, and leans on 2025-26 until a team has played 20 games.

Scoring rates suggest6.3Goals in this game

Last 5 meetings6.0Goals per game

Line—No total posted yet

Books at the line—With the game-day prices

Team news

8 on the injury lists

Toronto · injuries

Cade WebberElbowIRReturn31 Oct

Dakota JoshuaAbdomenIRReturn24 Oct

Elvis MerzlikinsShoulderIRReturn30 Mar

Max DomiBackIRReturn21 Nov

William VilleneuveKneeIRReturn31 Oct

Tampa Bay · injuries

Dominic JamesHandIRReturn8 Oct

Emil LillebergUndisclosedOutReturn13 Oct

Yanni GourdeHipIRReturn2 Dec

Latest moves

See all: Latest moves →

5 Oct · TOR

Placed RW Nikita Grebenkin on injured reserve.

30 Sep · TOR

Moved C Max Domi from the non-roster list to long-term injured reserve.

29 Sep · TOR

Placed D Cade Webber on the injured non-roster list.

6 Oct · TBL

Placed C Jansen Harkins on waivers.

27 Sep · TBL

Placed D Michael Callahan on waivers.

27 Sep · TBL

Placed D Michael Callahan, G Mads Sogaard Nielsenon, LD Maxim Groshev, LW Jakob Pelletier and C Nicholas Abruzzese on waivers.

Injury report

Toronto · 2026 draft

See all: Toronto · 2026 draft →

#1Gavin McKennaRound 1 · Penn StateLW

#60Alexander BileckiRound 2 · KitchenerD

#69Ethan MacKenzieRound 3 · EdmontonD

#73Zach OlsenRound 3 · SaskatoonRW

Full draft

Tampa Bay · 2026 draft

See all: Tampa Bay · 2026 draft →

#52Oleg KulebiakinRound 2 · HalifaxRW

#90Tomas KralovicRound 3 · BratislavaD

#134Morgan AnderbergRound 5 · VaxjoC

#154Cooper SollerRound 5 · Sioux FallsC

Full draft

Tuesday 30 March · the full slate

See all: Tuesday 30 March · the full slate →

TBLThis game 7:00 PM ET

Updated after every final