Tampa Bay Lightning at Toronto Maple Leafs: game preview
Tampa BayLightning2026-27: 2-1-0 · 4 pts · 2025-26: 50-26-6 · 106 pts · 5that
TorontoMaple Leafs2026-27: 2-2-0 · 4 pts · 2025-26: 32-36-14 · 78 pts · 28thTwenty-eight points apart last season
Tampa Bay finished last season 5th in the league on 106 points. Toronto finished 28th on 78, and the 2025-26 season series went TBL 2-1-0.
Game-day prices arrive with the afternoon snapshot, about 4:30 PM ET on the day of the game.
Meeting number 136
Across 135 completed games, Toronto lead the head-to-head 77-47-11.
Last 5 meetings
See all: Last 5 meetings →The table on each 2025-26 meeting night
League rank after that night's games; a longer bar is a higher place. On 8 Dec 2025, Tampa Bay were 12th in the league and Toronto 18th. By 7 Mar 2026 it was 2nd and 18th.
Tampa Bay out-attempted Toronto 191 to 152
Every attempt from the last meetings, both teams shooting right.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Toronto Maple Leafs
Tampa Bay have created the better chances, last 10 games
Shot quality both ways: expected goals weigh every unblocked attempt by its chance of scoring. Finishing above zero means more goals than the chances.
This season: 3 games for Tampa Bay, 4 for Toronto. Small sample: early-season xG moves a lot from night to night.
Last 10 games: 10 games for Tampa Bay, 10 for Toronto.
2025-26: 82 games for Tampa Bay, 82 for Toronto.
Power play and penalty kill, season and series
This season's rates first, then 2025-26 and the last meetings between the two. Power-play chances are counted from the penalty log with coincidental minors cancelled; faceoffs are each club's wins over draws taken.
All bars share one scale · 0–100%SeasonLast meetings
Tampa Bay
Small sampleToronto
Small sampleSkaters to watch
Each club's top three forwards and defencemen by points this season, with 2025-26 one tap away.
Who has stopped this matchup
Save percentage in the last meetings by goalie. Starters are confirmed on game day.
Tampa Bay crease
TBL · 2026-27 Starter estimate from 14 Mar
No appearances against Toronto in the last meetings.
Toronto crease
TOR · 2026-27 Starter estimate from 14 Mar
No appearances against Tampa Bay in the last meetings.
Scoring rates point to about 6.3 goals
No total is posted yet: it arrives with the game-day prices. Until then, the scoring rates and the recent meetings set the range.
Goals in the last 5 meetings
Bar length is total goals, coloured by the winner.
Scoring rates
Tampa Bay2.672.333.542.82
Toronto2.752.753.093.65Goals for and against per game. The estimate averages each team’s scoring with the other’s goals allowed, and leans on 2025-26 until a team has played 20 games.
8 on the injury lists
Tampa Bay · injuries
Toronto · injuries
Latest moves
See all: Latest moves →Placed C Jansen Harkins on waivers.
Placed D Michael Callahan on waivers.
Placed D Michael Callahan, G Mads Sogaard Nielsenon, LD Maxim Groshev, LW Jakob Pelletier and C Nicholas Abruzzese on waivers.
Placed RW Nikita Grebenkin on injured reserve.
Moved C Max Domi from the non-roster list to long-term injured reserve.
Placed D Cade Webber on the injured non-roster list.
Tampa Bay · 2026 draft
See all: Tampa Bay · 2026 draft →Toronto · 2026 draft
See all: Toronto · 2026 draft →
Updated after every final