Early look · NHL 2026-27

Toronto Maple Leafs at Buffalo Sabres: game preview

TorontoMaple Leafs2026-27: 2-2-0 · 4 pts · 2025-26: 32-36-14 · 78 pts · 28that

BuffaloSabres2026-27: 2-1-0 · 4 pts · 2025-26: 50-23-9 · 109 pts · 4th

Puck drop27 Feb · 7:00 PM ET

VenueKeyBank Center

All-time meetings247 completed

BasisLast 5 meetings + 2025-26

The thesis

Thirty-one points apart last season

Toronto finished last season 28th in the league on 78 points. Buffalo finished 4th on 109, and the 2025-26 season series went BUF 3-0-1.

Game-day prices arrive with the afternoon snapshot, about 4:30 PM ET on the day of the game.

Head-to-head

Meeting number 248

Across 247 completed games, Buffalo lead the head-to-head 145-82-20.

All-time record145-82-20Buffalo's record in the series

Meetings played247This is number 248

2025-26 seriesBUF 3-0-1

Last 53-2Buffalo

Last 5 meetings

See all: Last 5 meetings →

DateResultShotsPower playWinner

14 Mar 2026TOR 2 – BUF 3 SO18–33TOR 0/2 · BUF 1/4BUF

27 Jan 2026BUF 7 – TOR 431–23BUF 1/2 · TOR 0/0BUF

25 Oct 2025BUF 3 – TOR 4 OT26–23BUF 1/4 · TOR 0/3TOR

24 Oct 2025TOR 3 – BUF 534–30TOR 1/4 · BUF 0/2BUF

15 Apr 2025TOR 4 – BUF 032–35TOR 0/2 · BUF 0/2TOR

Head-to-head finder

The table on each 2025-26 meeting night

DateTorontoBuffalo

24 Oct 20253-4-1 · 7 pts25th4-4-0 · 8 pts16th

25 Oct 20254-4-1 · 9 pts22nd4-4-1 · 9 pts19th

27 Jan 202624-19-9 · 57 pts18th29-17-5 · 63 pts7th

14 Mar 202628-27-12 · 68 pts25th41-20-6 · 88 pts4th

League rank after that night's games; a longer bar is a higher place. On 24 Oct 2025, Toronto were 25th in the league and Buffalo 16th. By 14 Mar 2026 it was 25th and 4th.

Where the shots come from · last 5 meetings

Buffalo out-attempted Toronto 324 to 271

Every attempt from the last meetings, both teams shooting right.

Toronto Maple Leafs

271 att · 130 on goal · 17 G · 13.1%

Crease13 att · 2 G

Slot122 att · 13 G

Wing90 att · 2 G

Point36 att · 0 G

Neutral zone10 att · 0 G

Buffalo Sabres

324 att · 155 on goal · 17 G · 11.0%

Crease21 att · 0 G

Slot132 att · 7 G

Wing124 att · 7 G

Point42 att · 2 G

Neutral zone5 att · 1 G

GoalOn goalMissedBlocked

Expected goals

Buffalo have created the better chances, last 10 games

Shot quality both ways: expected goals weigh every unblocked attempt by its chance of scoring. Finishing above zero means more goals than the chances.

TorontoBuffalo

3.40xG for per game3.53

3.21xG against per game2.17

51.4%xG share62.0%

−2.6FinishingGoals minus expected goals−0.6

+1.9GoaltendingExpected goals against minus goals allowed−4.5

This season: 4 games for Toronto, 3 for Buffalo. Small sample: early-season xG moves a lot from night to night.

Every team’s xG →

Special teams

Power play and penalty kill, season and series

This season's rates first, then 2025-26 and the last meetings between the two. Power-play chances are counted from the penalty log with coincidental minors cancelled; faceoffs are each club's wins over draws taken.

All bars share one scale · 0–100%SeasonLast meetings

Toronto

Small sample

Power play · 2026-2721.4%

Power play · 2025-2621.3% · 15th

Power play · last 5 meetings1/11 · 9.1%

Penalty kill · 2026-2790.9%

Penalty kill · 2025-2681.2% · 8th

Faceoffs · 2026-2751.1% · 113/221

Drawn · 2026-2714 (3.50/gm)

Drawn · last meetings11 (2.20/gm)

Shorthanded · 2026-2711 (2.75/gm)

PP goals · last meetings1

Buffalo

Small sample

Power play · 2026-270.0%

Power play · 2025-2619.5% · 21st

Power play · last 5 meetings3/14 · 21.4%

Penalty kill · 2026-2766.7%

Penalty kill · 2025-2681.9% · 4th

Faceoffs · 2026-2750.6% · 91/180

Drawn · 2026-2710 (3.33/gm)

Drawn · last meetings14 (2.80/gm)

Shorthanded · 2026-279 (3.00/gm)

PP goals · last meetings3

Skaters

Rasmus Dahlin has 7 points in the last 5 meetings

Each club's top three forwards and defencemen by points this season, with 2025-26 one tap away, then who has produced in the last meetings.

In the last meetings

See all: In the last meetings →

PlayerGPGAPSOG

26Rasmus Dahlin534716

34Auston Matthews434715

72Tage Thompson542620

23Mattias Samuelsson42465

89Matthew Knies51458

11Max Domi522410

91John Tavares513410

71Ryan McLeod50445

81Dakota Joshua33034

89Alex Tuch521314

Head-to-head finder

Rasmus Dahlin vs Toronto · game by game

See all: Rasmus Dahlin vs Toronto · game by game →

DateVenueGAPSOGTOI

14 Mar 2026home000326:12

27 Jan 2026away325726:24

25 Oct 2025away011223:42

24 Oct 2025home011020:28

15 Apr 2025home000425:41

Last 5 meetings7 P3 G, 4 A · 16 SOG

Next best7 PAuston Matthews, TOR

2026-27 season2 P3 GP · 1 G

Blank vs TOR2 of 5

Full game log

Goaltending

Anthony Stolarz has started most of these meetings

Anthony Stolarz played 2 of the last 5 meetings with Buffalo, with a .923 save percentage. Starters are confirmed on game day.

Expected startersAn estimate until the teams confirmEvery game tonight →

Toronto

Expected starter after their game on 25 Feb: a back-to-back depends on who plays that night.

Buffalo

Expected starter after their game on 26 Feb: a back-to-back depends on who plays that night.

Anthony Stolarz

See all: Anthony Stolarz →

TOR · 2-0-0 in 2026-27 Starter estimate from 24 Feb

SV% · 2026-27.9042 GP · 2.44 GAA · 2025-26 .893

vs Buffalo.9232 app · 65 SA · 5 GA

GSAx · 2026-27+0.62 starts

vs BUFVenueSAGASV%

24 Oct 2025away305.833

15 Apr 2025away3501.000

Also on the roster, 2026-27: Sergei Bobrovsky .887 (2 GP)

Full game log

Buffalo crease

BUF · 2026-27 Starter estimate from 24 Feb

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen.7842 GP · 1-1-0 · GSAx −3.7

Colten Ellis.9001 GP · 1-0-0 · GSAx −0.2

Three goalies used against Toronto

#vs TORAppsSAGASV%

1Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen3599.847

34Alex Lyon2525.904

92Colten Ellis1182.889

Totals

Scoring rates point to about 6.5 goals

No total is posted yet: it arrives with the game-day prices. Until then, the scoring rates and the recent meetings set the range.

Goals in the last 5 meetings

14 Mar 20265 · TOR 2–3 BUF

27 Jan 202611 · BUF 7–4 TOR

25 Oct 20257 · BUF 3–4 TOR

24 Oct 20258 · TOR 3–5 BUF

15 Apr 20254 · TOR 4–0 BUF

Bar length is total goals, coloured by the winner.

Scoring rates

Team26-27 GF26-27 GA25-26 GF25-26 GA

Toronto2.752.753.093.65

Buffalo3.333.673.512.94

Goals for and against per game. The estimate averages each team’s scoring with the other’s goals allowed, and leans on 2025-26 until a team has played 20 games.

Scoring rates suggest6.5Goals in this game

Last 5 meetings7.0Goals per game

Line—No total posted yet

Books at the line—With the game-day prices

Team news

11 on the injury lists

Toronto · injuries

Cade WebberElbowIRReturn31 Oct

Dakota JoshuaAbdomenIRReturn24 Oct

Elvis MerzlikinsShoulderIRReturn30 Mar

Max DomiBackIRReturn21 Nov

William VilleneuveKneeIRReturn31 Oct

Buffalo · injuries

Alex LyonUpper BodyIRReturn10 Oct

Conor TimminsLower BodyIRReturn17 Oct

Jack RathboneUndisclosedIRReturn24 Oct

Jason ZuckerAbdomenIRReturn15 Oct

Josh DoanLower BodyDay-to-dayReturn8 Oct

Topias LeinonenLower BodyIRReturn10 Oct

Latest moves

See all: Latest moves →

5 Oct · TOR

Placed RW Nikita Grebenkin on injured reserve.

30 Sep · TOR

Moved C Max Domi from the non-roster list to long-term injured reserve.

29 Sep · TOR

Placed D Cade Webber on the injured non-roster list.

2 Oct · BUF

Loaned D Dennis Gilbert to Rochester (AHL).

1 Oct · BUF

Recalled D Dennis Gilbert from Rochester (AHL). Placed G Alex Lyon and D Olen Zellweger on injured reserve. Signed D Louis Crevier to a four-year contract. Transferred F Matthew Savoie to long-term injured reserve.

14 Sep · BUF

Signed C Noah Östlund to an eight-year contract.

Injury report

Toronto · 2026 draft

See all: Toronto · 2026 draft →

#1Gavin McKennaRound 1 · Penn StateLW

#60Alexander BileckiRound 2 · KitchenerD

#69Ethan MacKenzieRound 3 · EdmontonD

#73Zach OlsenRound 3 · SaskatoonRW

Full draft

Buffalo · 2026 draft

See all: Buffalo · 2026 draft →

#4Daxon RudolphRound 1 · Prince AlbertD

#20Ilia MorozovRound 1 · MiamiC

#124Olivers MurnieksRound 4 · Saint JohnC

#156Doman SzongothRound 5 · Kookoo Jr.C

Full draft

Saturday 27 February · the full slate

See all: Saturday 27 February · the full slate →

BUFThis game 7:00 PM ET

Updated after every final

Toronto Maple Leafs at Buffalo Sabres: game preview

Thirty-one points apart last season

Meeting number 248

Last 5 meetings

The table on each 2025-26 meeting night

Buffalo out-attempted Toronto 324 to 271

Toronto Maple Leafs

Buffalo Sabres

Buffalo have created the better chances, last 10 games

Power play and penalty kill, season and series

Toronto

Buffalo

Rasmus Dahlin has 7 points in the last 5 meetings

Forwards to watch

Defencemen to watch

In the last meetings

Rasmus Dahlin vs Toronto · game by game

Anthony Stolarz has started most of these meetings

Anthony Stolarz

Buffalo crease

Scoring rates point to about 6.5 goals

Goals in the last 5 meetings

Scoring rates

11 on the injury lists

Toronto · injuries

Buffalo · injuries

Latest moves

Toronto · 2026 draft

Buffalo · 2026 draft

Saturday 27 February · the full slate