Early look · NHL 2026-27

Colorado Avalanche at Tampa Bay Lightning: game preview

ColoradoAvalanche2026-27: 2-0-0 · 4 pts · 2025-26: 55-16-11 · 121 pts · 1stat

Tampa BayLightning2026-27: 2-1-0 · 4 pts · 2025-26: 50-26-6 · 106 pts · 5th

Puck drop13 Feb · 7:00 PM ET

VenueBenchmark International Arena

All-time meetings54 completed

BasisLast 5 meetings + 2025-26

The thesis

Fifteen points apart last season

Colorado finished last season 1st in the league on 121 points. Tampa Bay finished 5th on 106.

Game-day prices arrive with the afternoon snapshot, about 4:30 PM ET on the day of the game.

Head-to-head

Meeting number 55

Across 54 completed games, Colorado lead the head-to-head 27-20-7.

All-time record27-20-7Colorado's record in the series

Meetings played54This is number 55

2025-26 series—

Last 54-1Tampa Bay

Last 5 meetings

See all: Last 5 meetings →

DateResultShotsPower playWinner

6 Jan 2026COL 2 – TBL 4——TBL

4 Nov 2025TBL 2 – COL 3——COL

25 Nov 2024COL 2 – TBL 8——TBL

30 Oct 2024TBL 5 – COL 2——TBL

15 Feb 2024COL 3 – TBL 6——TBL

Head-to-head finder

The table on each 2025-26 meeting night

DateColoradoTampa Bay

4 Nov 20258-1-5 · 21 pts1st6-5-2 · 14 pts20th

6 Jan 202631-4-7 · 69 pts1st26-13-3 · 55 pts4th

League rank after that night's games; a longer bar is a higher place. On 4 Nov 2025, Colorado were 1st in the league and Tampa Bay 20th. By 6 Jan 2026 it was 1st and 4th.

Where the shots come from · last 5 meetings

Tampa Bay out-attempted Colorado 127 to 127

Every attempt from the last meetings, both teams shooting right.

Colorado Avalanche

127 att · 66 on goal · 5 G · 7.6%

Crease14 att · 2 G

Slot51 att · 2 G

Wing37 att · 1 G

Point21 att · 0 G

Neutral zone4 att · 0 G

Tampa Bay Lightning

127 att · 52 on goal · 6 G · 11.5%

Crease8 att · 1 G

Slot50 att · 3 G

Wing40 att · 1 G

Point23 att · 1 G

Neutral zone6 att · 0 G

GoalOn goalMissedBlocked

Expected goals

Colorado have created the better chances, last 10 games

Shot quality both ways: expected goals weigh every unblocked attempt by its chance of scoring. Finishing above zero means more goals than the chances.

ColoradoTampa Bay

3.16xG for per game4.04

2.55xG against per game2.64

55.4%xG share60.5%

+7.7FinishingGoals minus expected goals−4.1

+0.1GoaltendingExpected goals against minus goals allowed+0.9

This season: 2 games for Colorado, 3 for Tampa Bay. Small sample: early-season xG moves a lot from night to night.

Every team’s xG →

Special teams

Power play and penalty kill, season and series

This season's rates first, then 2025-26 and the last meetings between the two. Power-play chances are counted from the penalty log with coincidental minors cancelled; faceoffs are each club's wins over draws taken.

All bars share one scale · 0–100%SeasonLast meetings

Colorado

Small sample

Power play · 2026-2744.4%

Power play · 2025-2617.1% · 27th

Power play · last 5 meetings—

Penalty kill · 2026-27100.0%

Penalty kill · 2025-2684.6% · 1st

Faceoffs · 2026-2746.8% · 58/124

Drawn · 2026-279 (4.50/gm)

Drawn · last meetings0 (0.00/gm)

Shorthanded · 2026-276 (3.00/gm)

PP goals · last meetings0

Tampa Bay

Small sample

Power play · 2026-270.0%

Power play · 2025-2620.7% · 17th

Power play · last 5 meetings—

Penalty kill · 2026-2785.7%

Penalty kill · 2025-2682.6% · 3rd

Faceoffs · 2026-2748.2% · 81/168

Drawn · 2026-2713 (4.33/gm)

Drawn · last meetings0 (0.00/gm)

Shorthanded · 2026-277 (2.33/gm)

PP goals · last meetings0

Skaters

Skaters to watch

Each club's top three forwards and defencemen by points this season, with 2025-26 one tap away.

Goaltending

Who has stopped this matchup

Save percentage in the last meetings by goalie. Starters are confirmed on game day.

Expected startersAn estimate until the teams confirmEvery game tonight →

Colorado

Expected starter after their game on 12 Feb: a back-to-back depends on who plays that night.

Tampa Bay

Expected starter after their game on 12 Feb: a back-to-back depends on who plays that night.

Colorado crease

COL · 2026-27 Starter estimate from 10 Feb

Mackenzie Blackwood.9122 GP · 2-0-0 · GSAx +0.1

No appearances against Tampa Bay in the last meetings.

Tampa Bay crease

TBL · 2026-27 Starter estimate from 10 Feb

Andrei Vasilevskiy.8983 GP · 2-1-0 · GSAx +1.0

No appearances against Colorado in the last meetings.

Totals

Scoring rates point to about 6.3 goals

No total is posted yet: it arrives with the game-day prices. Until then, the scoring rates and the recent meetings set the range.

Goals in the last 5 meetings

6 Jan 20266 · COL 2–4 TBL

4 Nov 20255 · TBL 2–3 COL

25 Nov 202410 · COL 2–8 TBL

30 Oct 20247 · TBL 5–2 COL

15 Feb 20249 · COL 3–6 TBL

Bar length is total goals, coloured by the winner.

Scoring rates

Team26-27 GF26-27 GA25-26 GF25-26 GA

Colorado7.002.503.682.48

Tampa Bay2.672.333.542.82

Goals for and against per game. The estimate averages each team’s scoring with the other’s goals allowed, and leans on 2025-26 until a team has played 20 games.

Scoring rates suggest6.3Goals in this game

Last 5 meetings7.4Goals per game

Line—No total posted yet

Books at the line—With the game-day prices

Team news

7 on the injury lists

Colorado · injuries

Georgii MerkulovUndisclosedIRReturn16 Oct

Logan O'ConnorLower BodyIRReturn7 Oct

Trent MinerUndisclosedIRReturn10 Oct

Zachary L'HeureuxLower BodyIRReturn7 Oct

Tampa Bay · injuries

Dominic JamesHandIRReturn8 Oct

Emil LillebergUndisclosedOutReturn13 Oct

Yanni GourdeHipIRReturn2 Dec

Latest moves

See all: Latest moves →

27 Sep · COL

Placed LD Keaton Middleton, LD Wyatt Aamodt, RW/LW Fabian Lysell, C Vinnie Hinostroza, LW Adam Beckman and LW Tristen Nielsen on waivers.

27 Sep · COL

Placed D Keaton Middleton, D Wyatt Aamodt, LW Fabian Lysell, C Vinnie Hinostroza, LW Adam Beckman and G Mads Sogaard Nielsen on waivers.

25 Sep · COL

Reassigned Ds Domenick Fensore, Saige Weinstein and Christian Wolanin to Colorado (AHL).

6 Oct · TBL

Placed C Jansen Harkins on waivers.

27 Sep · TBL

Placed D Michael Callahan on waivers.

27 Sep · TBL

Placed D Michael Callahan, G Mads Sogaard Nielsenon, LD Maxim Groshev, LW Jakob Pelletier and C Nicholas Abruzzese on waivers.

Injury report

Colorado · 2026 draft

See all: Colorado · 2026 draft →

#43Egor ShilovRound 2 · VictoriavilleC

#74Beckett HamiltonRound 3 · Red DeerC

#126Tobias TvrznikRound 4 · WenatcheeG

#128Axel ElofssonRound 4 · Orebro Jr.D

Full draft

Tampa Bay · 2026 draft

See all: Tampa Bay · 2026 draft →

#52Oleg KulebiakinRound 2 · HalifaxRW

#90Tomas KralovicRound 3 · BratislavaD

#134Morgan AnderbergRound 5 · VaxjoC

#154Cooper SollerRound 5 · Sioux FallsC

Full draft

Saturday 13 February · the full slate

See all: Saturday 13 February · the full slate →

TBLThis game 7:00 PM ET

Updated after every final

Colorado Avalanche at Tampa Bay Lightning: game preview

Fifteen points apart last season

Meeting number 55

Last 5 meetings

The table on each 2025-26 meeting night

Tampa Bay out-attempted Colorado 127 to 127

Colorado Avalanche

Tampa Bay Lightning

Colorado have created the better chances, last 10 games

Power play and penalty kill, season and series

Colorado

Tampa Bay

Skaters to watch

Forwards to watch

Defencemen to watch

Who has stopped this matchup

Colorado crease

Tampa Bay crease

Scoring rates point to about 6.3 goals

Goals in the last 5 meetings

Scoring rates

7 on the injury lists

Colorado · injuries

Tampa Bay · injuries

Latest moves

Colorado · 2026 draft

Tampa Bay · 2026 draft

Saturday 13 February · the full slate