Early look · NHL 2026-27

Tampa Bay Lightning at Florida Panthers: game preview

Tampa BayLightning2026-27: 2-1-0 · 4 pts · 2025-26: 50-26-6 · 106 pts · 5that

FloridaPanthers2026-27: 2-0-2 · 6 pts · 2025-26: 40-38-4 · 84 pts · 25th

Puck drop26 Dec · 6:00 PM ET

VenueAmerant Bank Arena

All-time meetings191 completed

BasisLast 5 meetings + 2025-26

The thesis

Twenty-two points apart last season

Tampa Bay finished last season 5th in the league on 106 points. Florida finished 25th on 84, and the 2025-26 season series went TBL 3-1-0.

Game-day prices arrive with the afternoon snapshot, about 4:30 PM ET on the day of the game.

Head-to-head

Meeting number 192

Across 191 completed games, Florida lead the head-to-head 99-69-23.

All-time record99-69-23Florida's record in the series

Meetings played191This is number 192

2025-26 seriesTBL 3-1-0

Last 53-2Tampa Bay

Last 5 meetings

See all: Last 5 meetings →

DateResultShotsPower playWinner

5 Feb 2026FLA 1 – TBL 6——TBL

27 Dec 2025TBL 4 – FLA 2——TBL

15 Dec 2025FLA 5 – TBL 2——FLA

15 Nov 2025TBL 3 – FLA 1——TBL

30 Apr 2025FLA 6 – TBL 3——FLA

Head-to-head finder

The table on each 2025-26 meeting night

DateTampa BayFlorida

15 Nov 20259-6-2 · 20 pts21st9-8-1 · 19 pts24th

15 Dec 202518-12-3 · 39 pts9th17-13-2 · 36 pts17th

27 Dec 202521-13-3 · 45 pts9th20-15-2 · 42 pts14th

5 Feb 202633-14-4 · 70 pts2nd28-20-3 · 59 pts14th

League rank after that night's games; a longer bar is a higher place. On 15 Nov 2025, Tampa Bay were 21st in the league and Florida 24th. By 5 Feb 2026 it was 2nd and 14th.

Where the shots come from · last 5 meetings

Florida out-attempted Tampa Bay 228 to 190

Every attempt from the last meetings, both teams shooting right.

Tampa Bay Lightning

190 att · 101 on goal · 15 G · 14.9%

Crease11 att · 4 G

Slot73 att · 6 G

Wing62 att · 5 G

Point32 att · 0 G

Neutral zone12 att · 0 G

Florida Panthers

228 att · 107 on goal · 9 G · 8.4%

Crease20 att · 2 G

Slot77 att · 5 G

Wing88 att · 2 G

Point39 att · 0 G

Neutral zone4 att · 0 G

GoalOn goalMissedBlocked

Expected goals

Florida have created the better chances, last 10 games

Shot quality both ways: expected goals weigh every unblocked attempt by its chance of scoring. Finishing above zero means more goals than the chances.

Tampa BayFlorida

4.04xG for per game3.01

2.64xG against per game2.34

60.5%xG share56.3%

−4.1FinishingGoals minus expected goals−4.0

+0.9GoaltendingExpected goals against minus goals allowed+1.4

This season: 3 games for Tampa Bay, 4 for Florida. Small sample: early-season xG moves a lot from night to night.

Every team’s xG →

Special teams

Power play and penalty kill, season and series

This season's rates first, then 2025-26 and the last meetings between the two. Power-play chances are counted from the penalty log with coincidental minors cancelled; faceoffs are each club's wins over draws taken.

All bars share one scale · 0–100%SeasonLast meetings

Tampa Bay

Small sample

Power play · 2026-270.0%

Power play · 2025-2620.7% · 17th

Power play · last 5 meetings—

Penalty kill · 2026-2785.7%

Penalty kill · 2025-2682.6% · 3rd

Faceoffs · 2026-2748.2% · 81/168

Drawn · 2026-2713 (4.33/gm)

Drawn · last meetings0 (0.00/gm)

Shorthanded · 2026-277 (2.33/gm)

PP goals · last meetings0

Florida

Small sample

Power play · 2026-274.3%

Power play · 2025-2619.5% · 19th

Power play · last 5 meetings—

Penalty kill · 2026-2778.9%

Penalty kill · 2025-2681.0% · 9th

Faceoffs · 2026-2750.2% · 115/229

Drawn · 2026-2723 (5.75/gm)

Drawn · last meetings0 (0.00/gm)

Shorthanded · 2026-2719 (4.75/gm)

PP goals · last meetings0

Skaters

Skaters to watch

Each club's top three forwards and defencemen by points this season, with 2025-26 one tap away.

Goaltending

Who has stopped this matchup

Save percentage in the last meetings by goalie. Starters are confirmed on game day.

Expected startersAn estimate until the teams confirmEvery game tonight →

Tampa Bay

Expected starter after their game on 22 Dec: a back-to-back depends on who plays that night.

Florida

Expected starter after their game on 21 Dec: a back-to-back depends on who plays that night.

Tampa Bay crease

TBL · 2026-27 Starter estimate from 23 Dec

Andrei Vasilevskiy.8983 GP · 2-1-0 · GSAx +1.0

No appearances against Florida in the last meetings.

Florida crease

FLA · 2026-27 Starter estimate from 23 Dec

Jacob Markstrom.9273 GP · 2-0-1 · GSAx +3.2

Akira Schmid.8751 GP · 0-0-1 · GSAx −1.0

No appearances against Tampa Bay in the last meetings.

Totals

Scoring rates point to about 6.0 goals

No total is posted yet: it arrives with the game-day prices. Until then, the scoring rates and the recent meetings set the range.

Goals in the last 5 meetings

5 Feb 20267 · FLA 1–6 TBL

27 Dec 20256 · TBL 4–2 FLA

15 Dec 20257 · FLA 5–2 TBL

15 Nov 20254 · TBL 3–1 FLA

30 Apr 20259 · FLA 6–3 TBL

Bar length is total goals, coloured by the winner.

Scoring rates

Team26-27 GF26-27 GA25-26 GF25-26 GA

Tampa Bay2.672.333.542.82

Florida2.002.003.063.37

Goals for and against per game. The estimate averages each team’s scoring with the other’s goals allowed, and leans on 2025-26 until a team has played 20 games.

Scoring rates suggest6.0Goals in this game

Last 5 meetings6.6Goals per game

Line—No total posted yet

Books at the line—With the game-day prices

Team news

8 on the injury lists

Tampa Bay · injuries

Dominic JamesHandIRReturn8 Oct

Emil LillebergUndisclosedOutReturn13 Oct

Yanni GourdeHipIRReturn2 Dec

Florida · injuries

Aaron EkbladPersonalOutReturn10 Oct

Aleksander BarkovLower BodyIRReturn27 Nov

Brad MarchandLegDay-to-dayReturn10 Oct

Jonah GadjovichUpper BodyIRReturn17 Oct

MacKenzie EntwistleUndisclosedIRReturn10 Oct

Latest moves

See all: Latest moves →

6 Oct · TBL

Placed C Jansen Harkins on waivers.

27 Sep · TBL

Placed D Michael Callahan on waivers.

27 Sep · TBL

Placed D Michael Callahan, G Mads Sogaard Nielsenon, LD Maxim Groshev, LW Jakob Pelletier and C Nicholas Abruzzese on waivers.

3 Oct · FLA

Placed C Aleksander Barkov on long-term injured reserve. Called up D Alexander Petrovic from Charlotte (AHL).

3 Oct · FLA

Placed C Aleksander Barkov on long-term injured reserve.

27 Sep · FLA

Placed RW/C Cole Schwindt, RD Alexander Petrovic, LD Donovan Sebrango, LW Kai Schwindt, LW Cole Reinhardt, RW Sam Lafferty and C/LW John Beecher on waivers. Agreed to terms with RW Nathan Bastian on a 1-year, two-way contract.

Injury report

Tampa Bay · 2026 draft

See all: Tampa Bay · 2026 draft →

#52Oleg KulebiakinRound 2 · HalifaxRW

#90Tomas KralovicRound 3 · BratislavaD

#134Morgan AnderbergRound 5 · VaxjoC

#154Cooper SollerRound 5 · Sioux FallsC

Full draft

Florida · 2026 draft

See all: Florida · 2026 draft →

#40Simas IgnataviciusRound 2 · GeneveRW

#48Ryder CaliRound 2 · North BayC

#98Jonas KempsRound 4 · ChicagoD

#168Vilho VanhataloRound 6 · Tappara Jr.RW

Full draft

Saturday 26 December · the full slate

See all: Saturday 26 December · the full slate →

6:00 PM ET

TBLat

FLAThis game 7:00 PM ET

Updated after every final

Tampa Bay Lightning at Florida Panthers: game preview

Twenty-two points apart last season

Meeting number 192

Last 5 meetings

The table on each 2025-26 meeting night

Florida out-attempted Tampa Bay 228 to 190

Tampa Bay Lightning

Florida Panthers

Florida have created the better chances, last 10 games

Power play and penalty kill, season and series

Tampa Bay

Florida

Skaters to watch

Forwards to watch

Defencemen to watch

Who has stopped this matchup

Tampa Bay crease

Florida crease

Scoring rates point to about 6.0 goals

Goals in the last 5 meetings

Scoring rates

8 on the injury lists

Tampa Bay · injuries

Florida · injuries

Latest moves

Tampa Bay · 2026 draft

Florida · 2026 draft

Saturday 26 December · the full slate