Early look · NHL 2026-27

Ottawa Senators at Tampa Bay Lightning: game preview

OttawaSenators2026-27: 2-1-0 · 4 pts · 2025-26: 44-27-11 · 99 pts · 9that

Tampa BayLightning2026-27: 2-1-0 · 4 pts · 2025-26: 50-26-6 · 106 pts · 5th

Puck drop27 Nov · 3:00 PM ET

VenueBenchmark International Arena

All-time meetings132 completed

BasisLast 5 meetings + 2025-26

The thesis

Seven points apart last season

Ottawa finished last season 9th in the league on 99 points. Tampa Bay finished 5th on 106, and the 2025-26 season series went OTT 2-1-0.

Game-day prices arrive with the afternoon snapshot, about 4:30 PM ET on the day of the game.

Head-to-head

Meeting number 133

Across 132 completed games, Ottawa lead the head-to-head 76-46-10.

All-time record76-46-10Ottawa's record in the series

Meetings played132This is number 133

2025-26 seriesOTT 2-1-0

Last 53-2Ottawa

Last 5 meetings

See all: Last 5 meetings →

DateResultShotsPower playWinner

7 Apr 2026TBL 2 – OTT 6——OTT

28 Mar 2026OTT 2 – TBL 4——TBL

9 Oct 2025OTT 5 – TBL 4——OTT

3 Apr 2025TBL 1 – OTT 2——OTT

6 Feb 2025OTT 1 – TBL 5——TBL

Head-to-head finder

The table on each 2025-26 meeting night

DateOttawaTampa Bay

9 Oct 20251-0-0 · 2 pts12th0-1-0 · 0 pts21st

28 Mar 202638-25-10 · 86 pts12th45-21-6 · 96 pts5th

7 Apr 202641-27-10 · 92 pts10th48-24-6 · 102 pts4th

League rank after that night's games; a longer bar is a higher place. On 9 Oct 2025, Ottawa were 12th in the league and Tampa Bay 21st. By 7 Apr 2026 it was 10th and 4th.

Where the shots come from · last 5 meetings

Tampa Bay out-attempted Ottawa 184 to 183

Every attempt from the last meetings, both teams shooting right.

Ottawa Senators

183 att · 94 on goal · 13 G · 13.8%

Crease14 att · 2 G

Slot72 att · 6 G

Wing59 att · 3 G

Point26 att · 1 G

Neutral zone12 att · 1 G

Tampa Bay Lightning

184 att · 82 on goal · 10 G · 12.2%

Crease7 att · 1 G

Slot64 att · 6 G

Wing69 att · 3 G

Point40 att · 0 G

Neutral zone4 att · 0 G

GoalOn goalMissedBlocked

Expected goals

Ottawa have created the better chances, last 10 games

Shot quality both ways: expected goals weigh every unblocked attempt by its chance of scoring. Finishing above zero means more goals than the chances.

OttawaTampa Bay

2.95xG for per game4.04

3.41xG against per game2.64

46.4%xG share60.5%

+1.1FinishingGoals minus expected goals−4.1

+2.2GoaltendingExpected goals against minus goals allowed+0.9

This season: 3 games for Ottawa, 3 for Tampa Bay. Small sample: early-season xG moves a lot from night to night.

Every team’s xG →

Special teams

Power play and penalty kill, season and series

This season's rates first, then 2025-26 and the last meetings between the two. Power-play chances are counted from the penalty log with coincidental minors cancelled; faceoffs are each club's wins over draws taken.

All bars share one scale · 0–100%SeasonLast meetings

Ottawa

Small sample

Power play · 2026-277.7%

Power play · 2025-2624.0% · 8th

Power play · last 5 meetings—

Penalty kill · 2026-2776.9%

Penalty kill · 2025-2675.7% · 29th

Faceoffs · 2026-2752.7% · 99/188

Drawn · 2026-2713 (4.33/gm)

Drawn · last meetings0 (0.00/gm)

Shorthanded · 2026-2713 (4.33/gm)

PP goals · last meetings0

Tampa Bay

Small sample

Power play · 2026-270.0%

Power play · 2025-2620.7% · 17th

Power play · last 5 meetings—

Penalty kill · 2026-2785.7%

Penalty kill · 2025-2682.6% · 3rd

Faceoffs · 2026-2748.2% · 81/168

Drawn · 2026-2713 (4.33/gm)

Drawn · last meetings0 (0.00/gm)

Shorthanded · 2026-277 (2.33/gm)

PP goals · last meetings0

Skaters

Skaters to watch

Each club's top three forwards and defencemen by points this season, with 2025-26 one tap away.

Forwards to watch

See all: Forwards to watch →

PlayerGPGAPP/GP

18Tim Stützle33362.00

22Michael Amadio32131.00

19Drake Batherson32131.00

86Nikita Kucherov31341.33

59Jake Guentzel31231.00

38Brandon Hagel31231.00

Points leaders

Defencemen to watch

See all: Defencemen to watch →

PlayerGPGAPP/GP

72Thomas Chabot31120.67

26Carter Yakemchuk30110.33

5Cameron Crotty20000.00

74John Carlson30220.67

51Charle-Edouard D'Astous31010.33

27Ryan McDonagh30000.00

Defencemen stats

Goaltending

Who has stopped this matchup

Save percentage in the last meetings by goalie. Starters are confirmed on game day.

Expected startersAn estimate until the teams confirmEvery game tonight →

Ottawa

Expected starter after their game on 25 Nov: a back-to-back depends on who plays that night.

Tampa Bay

Expected starter after their game on 25 Nov: a back-to-back depends on who plays that night.

Ottawa crease

OTT · 2026-27 Starter estimate from 24 Nov

Linus Ullmark.9492 GP · 2-0-0 · GSAx +3.4

Samuel Ersson.8862 GP · 0-1-0 · GSAx −0.9

No appearances against Tampa Bay in the last meetings.

Tampa Bay crease

TBL · 2026-27 Starter estimate from 24 Nov

Andrei Vasilevskiy.8983 GP · 2-1-0 · GSAx +1.0

No appearances against Ottawa in the last meetings.

Totals

Scoring rates point to about 6.2 goals

No total is posted yet: it arrives with the game-day prices. Until then, the scoring rates and the recent meetings set the range.

Goals in the last 5 meetings

7 Apr 20268 · TBL 2–6 OTT

28 Mar 20266 · OTT 2–4 TBL

9 Oct 20259 · OTT 5–4 TBL

3 Apr 20253 · TBL 1–2 OTT

6 Feb 20256 · OTT 1–5 TBL

Bar length is total goals, coloured by the winner.

Scoring rates

Team26-27 GF26-27 GA25-26 GF25-26 GA

Ottawa3.332.673.393.00

Tampa Bay2.672.333.542.82

Goals for and against per game. The estimate averages each team’s scoring with the other’s goals allowed, and leans on 2025-26 until a team has played 20 games.

Scoring rates suggest6.2Goals in this game

Last 5 meetings6.4Goals per game

Line—No total posted yet

Books at the line—With the game-day prices

Team news

9 on the injury lists

Ottawa · injuries

Andre BurakovskyUpper BodyIRReturn10 Oct

Artem ZubKneeIRReturn10 Oct

Blake MontgomeryUndisclosedIRReturn8 Oct

Jake SandersonLower BodyOutReturn8 Oct

Kurtis MacDermidUpper BodyIRReturn31 Oct

Linus UllmarkUndisclosedOutReturn8 Oct

Tampa Bay · injuries

Dominic JamesHandIRReturn8 Oct

Emil LillebergUndisclosedOutReturn13 Oct

Yanni GourdeHipIRReturn2 Dec

Latest moves

See all: Latest moves →

6 Oct · OTT

Recalled G Marcus Johansson from Belleville (AHL). Assigned D Donovan Sebrango to Belleville.

5 Oct · OTT

Recalled D Donovan Sebrango from Belleville (AHL). Placed LW Andre Burakovsky on injured reserve.

2 Oct · OTT

Loaned D Hoyt Stanley to Belleville (AHL).

6 Oct · TBL

Placed C Jansen Harkins on waivers.

27 Sep · TBL

Placed D Michael Callahan on waivers.

27 Sep · TBL

Placed D Michael Callahan, G Mads Sogaard Nielsenon, LD Maxim Groshev, LW Jakob Pelletier and C Nicholas Abruzzese on waivers.

Injury report

Ottawa · 2026 draft

See all: Ottawa · 2026 draft →

#25Jonas Lagerberg HoenRound 1 · Leksand Jr.RW

#32Jaxon CoverRound 1 · LondonRW

#72Adam NemecRound 3 · SudburyLW

#87Oscar HolmertzRound 3 · Linkoping Jr.C

Full draft

Tampa Bay · 2026 draft

See all: Tampa Bay · 2026 draft →

#52Oleg KulebiakinRound 2 · HalifaxRW

#90Tomas KralovicRound 3 · BratislavaD

#134Morgan AnderbergRound 5 · VaxjoC

#154Cooper SollerRound 5 · Sioux FallsC

Full draft

Friday 27 November · the full slate

See all: Friday 27 November · the full slate →

TBLThis game 3:00 PM ET

Updated after every final