Early look · NHL 2026-27

Tampa Bay Lightning at Minnesota Wild: game preview

Tampa BayLightning2026-27: 2-1-0 · 4 pts · 2025-26: 50-26-6 · 106 pts · 5that

MinnesotaWild2026-27: 2-0-1 · 5 pts · 2025-26: 46-24-12 · 104 pts · 7th

Puck drop7 Nov · 8:00 PM ET

VenueGrand Casino Arena

All-time meetings40 completed

BasisLast 5 meetings + 2025-26

The thesis

Two points apart last season

Tampa Bay finished last season 5th in the league on 106 points. Minnesota finished 7th on 104, and the 2025-26 season series went TBL 1-1-0.

Game-day prices arrive with the afternoon snapshot, about 4:30 PM ET on the day of the game.

Head-to-head

Meeting number 41

Across 40 completed games, Minnesota lead the head-to-head 25-12-3.

All-time record25-12-3Minnesota's record in the series

Meetings played40This is number 41

2025-26 seriesTBL 1-1-0

Last 53-2Minnesota

Last 5 meetings

See all: Last 5 meetings →

DateResultShotsPower playWinner

24 Mar 2026MIN 3 – TBL 624–25MIN 2/4 · TBL 3/4TBL

3 Mar 2026TBL 1 – MIN 525–22TBL 0/4 · MIN 1/5MIN

1 Nov 2024TBL 3 – MIN 530–22TBL 2/4 · MIN 0/2MIN

24 Oct 2024MIN 4 – TBL 218–26MIN 1/4 · TBL 0/1MIN

18 Jan 2024MIN 3 – TBL 733–38MIN 0/2 · TBL 3/3TBL

Head-to-head finder

The table on each 2025-26 meeting night

DateTampa BayMinnesota

3 Mar 202633-14-4 · 70 pts2nd29-14-10 · 68 pts5th

24 Mar 202644-21-5 · 93 pts5th40-20-12 · 92 pts6th

League rank after that night's games; a longer bar is a higher place. On 3 Mar 2026, Tampa Bay were 2nd in the league and Minnesota 5th. By 24 Mar 2026 it was 5th and 6th.

Where the shots come from · last 5 meetings

Tampa Bay out-attempted Minnesota 301 to 262

Every attempt from the last meetings, both teams shooting right.

Tampa Bay Lightning

301 att · 145 on goal · 19 G · 13.1%

Crease17 att · 2 G

Slot119 att · 11 G

Wing96 att · 4 G

Point58 att · 2 G

Neutral zone11 att · 0 G

Minnesota Wild

262 att · 119 on goal · 20 G · 16.8%

Crease13 att · 3 G

Slot105 att · 6 G

Wing89 att · 6 G

Point43 att · 2 G

Neutral zone12 att · 3 G

GoalOn goalMissedBlocked

Expected goals

Tampa Bay and Minnesota are level on chances, last 10 games

Shot quality both ways: expected goals weigh every unblocked attempt by its chance of scoring. Finishing above zero means more goals than the chances.

Tampa BayMinnesota

4.04xG for per game3.01

2.64xG against per game2.83

60.5%xG share51.5%

−4.1FinishingGoals minus expected goals−0.0

+0.9GoaltendingExpected goals against minus goals allowed+3.5

This season: 3 games for Tampa Bay, 3 for Minnesota. Small sample: early-season xG moves a lot from night to night.

Every team’s xG →

Special teams

Power play and penalty kill, season and series

This season's rates first, then 2025-26 and the last meetings between the two. Power-play chances are counted from the penalty log with coincidental minors cancelled; faceoffs are each club's wins over draws taken.

All bars share one scale · 0–100%SeasonLast meetings

Tampa Bay

Small sample

Power play · 2026-270.0%

Power play · 2025-2620.7% · 17th

Power play · last 5 meetings8/16 · 50.0%

Penalty kill · 2026-2785.7%

Penalty kill · 2025-2682.6% · 3rd

Faceoffs · 2026-2748.2% · 81/168

Drawn · 2026-2713 (4.33/gm)

Drawn · last meetings16 (3.20/gm)

Shorthanded · 2026-277 (2.33/gm)

PP goals · last meetings8

Minnesota

Small sample

Power play · 2026-2736.4%

Power play · 2025-2625.2% · 3rd

Power play · last 5 meetings4/17 · 23.5%

Penalty kill · 2026-27100.0%

Penalty kill · 2025-2679.8% · 16th

Faceoffs · 2026-2748.0% · 84/175

Drawn · 2026-2711 (3.67/gm)

Drawn · last meetings17 (3.40/gm)

Shorthanded · 2026-279 (3.00/gm)

PP goals · last meetings4

Skaters

Kirill Kaprizov has 8 points in the last 5 meetings

Each club's top three forwards and defencemen by points this season, with 2025-26 one tap away, then who has produced in the last meetings.

Forwards to watch

See all: Forwards to watch →

PlayerGPGAPP/GP

86Nikita Kucherov31341.33

59Jake Guentzel31231.00

38Brandon Hagel31231.00

97Kirill Kaprizov33031.00

47Michael McCarron30331.00

20Blake Coleman31120.67

Points leaders

Defencemen to watch

See all: Defencemen to watch →

PlayerGPGAPP/GP

74John Carlson30220.67

51Charle-Edouard D'Astous31010.33

27Ryan McDonagh30000.00

43Quinn Hughes31341.33

46Jared Spurgeon31231.00

3Olli Maatta30110.33

Defencemen stats

In the last meetings

See all: In the last meetings →

PlayerGPGAPSOG

97Kirill Kaprizov553812

86Nikita Kucherov525718

12Matt Boldy525714

36Mats Zuccarello52578

21Brayden Point533610

77Victor Hedman415612

7Brock Faber53259

38Brandon Hagel523512

55Jake Middleton51458

59Jake Guentzel422411

Head-to-head finder

Kirill Kaprizov vs Tampa Bay · game by game

See all: Kirill Kaprizov vs Tampa Bay · game by game →

DateVenueGAPSOGTOI

24 Mar 2026away000221:31

3 Mar 2026home101322:11

1 Nov 2024home213223:01

24 Oct 2024away213222:08

18 Jan 2024away011321:51

Last 5 meetings8 P5 G, 3 A · 12 SOG

Next best7 PNikita Kucherov, TBL

2026-27 season3 P3 GP · 3 G

Blank vs TBL1 of 5

Full game log

Goaltending

Filip Gustavsson has started most of these meetings

Filip Gustavsson played 4 of the last 5 meetings with Tampa Bay, with a .872 save percentage. Starters are confirmed on game day.

Expected startersAn estimate until the teams confirmEvery game tonight →

Tampa Bay

Expected starter after their game on 5 Nov: a back-to-back depends on who plays that night.

Minnesota

Expected starter after their game on 6 Nov: a back-to-back depends on who plays that night.

Andrei Vasilevskiy

See all: Andrei Vasilevskiy →

TBL · 2-1-0 in 2026-27 Starter estimate from 4 Nov

SV% · 2026-27.8983 GP · 2.05 GAA · 2025-26 .912

vs Minnesota.8615 app · 115 SA · 16 GA

GSAx · 2026-27+1.03 starts · most on the roster

vs MINVenueSAGASV%

24 Mar 2026home243.875

3 Mar 2026away214.810

1 Nov 2024away203.850

24 Oct 2024home173.824

18 Jan 2024home333.909

Full game log

Filip Gustavsson

See all: Filip Gustavsson →

MIN · 28-15-6 in 2025-26 Starter estimate from 4 Nov

SV% · 2025-26.90450 GP · 2.69 GAA

vs Tampa Bay.8724 app · 117 SA · 15 GA

GSAx · 2025-26+0.949 starts

vs TBLVenueSAGASV%

24 Mar 2026away244.833

3 Mar 2026home251.960

1 Nov 2024home303.900

18 Jan 2024away387.816

Also on the roster, 2026-27: Jesper Wallstedt .933 (3 GP)

Full game log

Totals

Scoring rates point to about 6.1 goals

No total is posted yet: it arrives with the game-day prices. Until then, the scoring rates and the recent meetings set the range.

Goals in the last 5 meetings

24 Mar 20269 · MIN 3–6 TBL

3 Mar 20266 · TBL 1–5 MIN

1 Nov 20248 · TBL 3–5 MIN

24 Oct 20246 · MIN 4–2 TBL

18 Jan 202410 · MIN 3–7 TBL

Bar length is total goals, coloured by the winner.

Scoring rates

Team26-27 GF26-27 GA25-26 GF25-26 GA

Tampa Bay2.672.333.542.82

Minnesota3.001.673.322.93

Goals for and against per game. The estimate averages each team’s scoring with the other’s goals allowed, and leans on 2025-26 until a team has played 20 games.

Scoring rates suggest6.1Goals in this game

Last 5 meetings7.8Goals per game

Line—No total posted yet

Books at the line—With the game-day prices

Team news

6 on the injury lists

Tampa Bay · injuries

Dominic JamesHandIRReturn8 Oct

Emil LillebergUndisclosedOutReturn13 Oct

Yanni GourdeHipIRReturn2 Dec

Minnesota · injuries

Brock FaberSkullIRReturn15 Oct

Filip GustavssonHipIRReturn1 Nov

Nick FolignoUpper BodyDay-to-dayReturn8 Oct

Latest moves

See all: Latest moves →

6 Oct · TBL

Placed C Jansen Harkins on waivers.

27 Sep · TBL

Placed D Michael Callahan on waivers.

27 Sep · TBL

Placed D Michael Callahan, G Mads Sogaard Nielsenon, LD Maxim Groshev, LW Jakob Pelletier and C Nicholas Abruzzese on waivers.

24 Sep · MIN

Waived for the purpose of assignment to Iowa (AHL) Ds Matt Kiersted, Carson Lambos, and Roman Schmidt and Fs Caedan Bankier, Dylan Gambrell, Justin Kirkland, Tyler Pitlick, and Mason Shaw. Assigned Ds Ben Dexheimer and Viking Gustafsson Nyberg and Fs Jagger Joshua, Hunter Haight, Riley Heidt, Rasmus Kumpulainen, and Rieger Lorenz to Iowa.

14 Jul 2026 · MIN

Signed G Filip Ruzicka to a three-year, entry-level contract.

13 Jul 2026 · MIN

Signed D Filip Ruzicka to a three-year contract.

Injury report

Tampa Bay · 2026 draft

See all: Tampa Bay · 2026 draft →

#52Oleg KulebiakinRound 2 · HalifaxRW

#90Tomas KralovicRound 3 · BratislavaD

#134Morgan AnderbergRound 5 · VaxjoC

#154Cooper SollerRound 5 · Sioux FallsC

Full draft

Minnesota · 2026 draft

See all: Minnesota · 2026 draft →

#83Adam AnderssonRound 3 · Leksand Jr.C

#112Kayden LemireRound 4 · Prince GeorgeRW

#137Filip RuzickaRound 5 · BrandonG

Full draft

Saturday 7 November · the full slate

See all: Saturday 7 November · the full slate →

MINThis game 9:00 PM ET

Updated after every final