Game preview · NHL 2026-27

Toronto Maple Leafs at Vegas Golden Knights: game preview

Puck drop8 Oct · 10:00 PM ET
VenueT-Mobile Arena
All-time meetings16 completed
BasisLast 5 meetings + 2025-26
The thesis

Seventeen points apart last season

Toronto finished last season 28th in the league on 78 points. Vegas finished 13th on 95, and the 2025-26 season series went VGK 2-0-0.

Game-day prices arrive with the afternoon snapshot, about 4:30 PM ET on the day of the game.

Head-to-head

Meeting number 17

Across 16 completed games, Toronto lead the head-to-head 8-6-2.

All-time record8-6-2Toronto's record in the series
Meetings played16This is number 17
2025-26 seriesVGK 2-0-0
Last 54-1Vegas
DateResultShotsPower playWinner
23 Jan 2026VGK 6 – TOR 331–21VGK 0/1 · TOR 0/1VGK
15 Jan 2026TOR 5 – VGK 6 OT28–33TOR 1/1 · VGK 2/3VGK
5 Mar 2025TOR 2 – VGK 531–25TOR 1/3 · VGK 1/3VGK
20 Nov 2024VGK 0 – TOR 331–26VGK 0/3 · TOR 1/2TOR
27 Feb 2024VGK 6 – TOR 232–30VGK 0/4 · TOR 0/1VGK
Head-to-head finder

The table on each 2025-26 meeting night

DateTorontoVegas
15 Jan 202623-16-8 · 54 pts13th23-11-12 · 58 pts8th
23 Jan 202624-18-9 · 57 pts15th25-13-12 · 62 pts8th

League rank after that night's games; a longer bar is a higher place. On 15 Jan 2026, Toronto were 13th in the league and Vegas 8th. By 23 Jan 2026 it was 15th and 8th.


Where the shots come from · last 5 meetings

Vegas out-attempted Toronto 320 to 304

Every attempt from the last meetings, both teams shooting right.

Toronto Maple Leafs

304 att · 136 on goal · 15 G · 11.0%
Crease21 att · 3 G
Slot126 att · 9 G
Wing115 att · 2 G
Point32 att · 0 G
Neutral zone10 att · 1 G

Vegas Golden Knights

320 att · 152 on goal · 23 G · 15.1%
Crease21 att · 5 G
Slot114 att · 13 G
Wing112 att · 3 G
Point64 att · 0 G
Neutral zone9 att · 2 G
GoalOn goalMissedBlocked

Expected goals

Vegas have created the better chances, last 10 games

Shot quality both ways: expected goals weigh every unblocked attempt by its chance of scoring. Finishing above zero means more goals than the chances.

TorontoVegas
3.40xG for per game3.79
3.21xG against per game2.09
51.4%xG share64.4%
−2.6FinishingGoals minus expected goals+1.8
+1.9GoaltendingExpected goals against minus goals allowed−1.6

This season: 4 games for Toronto, 4 for Vegas. Small sample: early-season xG moves a lot from night to night.

Every team’s xG →


Special teams

Power play and penalty kill, season and series

This season's rates first, then 2025-26 and the last meetings between the two. Power-play chances are counted from the penalty log with coincidental minors cancelled; faceoffs are each club's wins over draws taken.

All bars share one scale · 0–100%SeasonLast meetings

Toronto

Small sample
Power play · 2026-2721.4%
Power play · 2025-2621.3% · 15th
Power play · last 5 meetings3/8 · 37.5%
Penalty kill · 2026-2790.9%
Penalty kill · 2025-2681.2% · 8th
Faceoffs · 2026-2751.1% · 113/221
Drawn · 2026-2714 (3.50/gm)
Drawn · last meetings8 (1.60/gm)
Shorthanded · 2026-2711 (2.75/gm)
PP goals · last meetings3

Vegas

Small sample
Power play · 2026-2731.3%
Power play · 2025-2624.6% · 6th
Power play · last 5 meetings3/14 · 21.4%
Penalty kill · 2026-2783.3%
Penalty kill · 2025-2681.4% · 7th
Faceoffs · 2026-2753.0% · 122/230
Drawn · 2026-2716 (4.00/gm)
Drawn · last meetings14 (2.80/gm)
Shorthanded · 2026-2712 (3.00/gm)
PP goals · last meetings3

Skaters

Jack Eichel has 8 points in the last 5 meetings

Each club's top three forwards and defencemen by points this season, with 2025-26 one tap away, then who has produced in the last meetings.

PlayerGPGAPP/GP
34Auston Matthews42351.25
91John Tavares41230.75
9Jack Eichel428102.50
95Victor Olofsson44151.25
48Tomas Hertl43251.25
Points leaders
PlayerGPGAPP/GP
44Morgan Rielly40330.75
43Darren Raddysh40110.25
27Shea Theodore41230.75
15Noah Hanifin41010.25
Defencemen stats

Jack Eichel vs Toronto · game by game

See all: Jack Eichel vs Toronto · game by game →
DateVenueGAPSOGTOI
23 Jan 2026away112319:16
15 Jan 2026home134524:35
5 Mar 2025home112617:34
20 Nov 2024away000321:31
Last 5 meetings8 P3 G, 5 A · 17 SOG
Next best6 PMark Stone, VGK
2026-27 season10 P4 GP · 2 G
Blank vs TOR1 of 4
Full game log

Goaltending

Adin Hill has started most of these meetings

Adin Hill played 5 of the last 5 meetings with Toronto, with a .896 save percentage. Starters are confirmed on game day.

Expected startersAn estimate until the teams confirmEvery game tonight →
Expected starter#72 Sergei Bobrovsky
  • Started 2 of 4 this season

2026-27: 2 GP · .887 SV% · GSAx +0

Also possible: Stolarz 35%

Injured: Merzlikins (injured reserve)

Expected starter#79 Carter Hart
  • Started 3 of 4 this season

2026-27: 3 GP · .890 SV% · GSAx −1

Also possible: Hill 49%

TOR · 2-0-0 in 2026-27 Chance to start · 35%

SV% · 2026-27.9042 GP · 2.44 GAA · 2025-26 .893
vs Vegas.8542 app · 48 SA · 7 GA
GSAx · 2026-27+0.62 starts
vs VGKVenueSAGASV%
23 Jan 2026home305.833
5 Mar 2025away182.889

Also on the roster, 2026-27: Sergei Bobrovsky .887 (2 GP)

Full game log

VGK · 1-0-0 in 2026-27 Chance to start · 49%

SV% · 2026-27.9001 GP · 2.00 GAA · 2025-26 .871
vs Toronto.8965 app · 135 SA · 14 GA
GSAx · 2026-27−0.51 start
vs TORVenueSAGASV%
23 Jan 2026away213.857
15 Jan 2026home285.821
5 Mar 2025home312.935
20 Nov 2024away252.920
27 Feb 2024away302.933

Also on the roster, 2026-27: Carter Hart .890 (3 GP)

Full game log

Totals

Scoring rates point to about 6.4 goals

No total is posted yet: it arrives with the game-day prices. Until then, the scoring rates and the recent meetings set the range.

Goals in the last 5 meetings

23 Jan 20269 · VGK 6–3 TOR
15 Jan 202611 · TOR 5–6 VGK
5 Mar 20257 · TOR 2–5 VGK
20 Nov 20243 · VGK 0–3 TOR
27 Feb 20248 · VGK 6–2 TOR

Bar length is total goals, coloured by the winner.

Scoring rates

Team26-27 GF26-27 GA25-26 GF25-26 GA
Toronto2.752.753.093.65
Vegas4.252.503.233.05

Goals for and against per game. The estimate averages each team’s scoring with the other’s goals allowed, and leans on 2025-26 until a team has played 20 games.

Scoring rates suggest6.4Goals in this game
Last 5 meetings7.6Goals per game
Line—No total posted yet
Books at the line—With the game-day prices

Team news

8 on the injury lists

Toronto · injuries

Cade WebberElbowIRReturn31 Oct
Dakota JoshuaAbdomenIRReturn24 Oct
Elvis MerzlikinsShoulderIRReturn30 Mar
Max DomiBackIRReturn21 Nov
William VilleneuveKneeIRReturn31 Oct

Vegas · injuries

Lukas CormierUndisclosedIRReturn22 Oct
Raphael LavoieUndisclosedOutReturn8 Oct
Victor OlofssonUndisclosedDay-to-dayReturn8 Oct
5 Oct · TOR

Placed RW Nikita Grebenkin on injured reserve.

30 Sep · TOR

Moved C Max Domi from the non-roster list to long-term injured reserve.

29 Sep · TOR

Placed D Cade Webber on the injured non-roster list.

30 Sep · VGK

Signed C William Karlsson to a two-year contract.

29 Sep · VGK

Placed C Jakub Cormier, RW Matyas Hemmerling and C Jakub Uchacz on the injured non-roster list.

23 Sep · VGK

Placed D Jaycob Megna, D Adam Ginning, D Joe Fleming, C Jakub Demek and D Jeremy Davies on waivers.

Injury report
#1Gavin McKennaRound 1 · Penn StateLW
#60Alexander BileckiRound 2 · KitchenerD
#69Ethan MacKenzieRound 3 · EdmontonD
#73Zach OlsenRound 3 · SaskatoonRW
Full draft
#29Juho PiiparinenRound 1 · TapparaD
#63ForfeitedRound 2 ·
#92Benjamin WilmottRound 3 · BarrieC
#95Sean BurickRound 3 · PentictonD
Full draft

Updated after every final