Early look The full preview opens on Thursday 4 March, three days before puck drop, with the expected goalies, the latest team news and game-day prices. Until then this page shows the matchup as it stands.
Early look · NHL 2026-27

Buffalo Sabres at Ottawa Senators: game preview

Puck drop7 Mar · 3:00 PM ET
VenueCanadian Tire Centre
All-time meetings190 completed
BasisLast 5 meetings + 2025-26
The thesis

Ten points apart last season

Buffalo finished last season 4th in the league on 109 points. Ottawa finished 9th on 99, and the 2025-26 season series went BUF 2-1-0.

Game-day prices arrive with the afternoon snapshot, about 4:30 PM ET on the day of the game.

Head-to-head

Meeting number 191

Across 190 completed games, Buffalo lead the head-to-head 104-68-18.

All-time record104-68-18Buffalo's record in the series
Meetings played190This is number 191
2025-26 seriesBUF 2-1-0
Last 54-1Buffalo
DateResultShotsPower playWinner
2 Apr 2026BUF 1 – OTT 4——OTT
23 Dec 2025BUF 3 – OTT 2 OT——BUF
15 Oct 2025OTT 4 – BUF 8——BUF
1 Apr 2025BUF 5 – OTT 2——BUF
25 Mar 2025OTT 2 – BUF 3——BUF
Head-to-head finder

The table on each 2025-26 meeting night

DateBuffaloOttawa
15 Oct 20251-3-0 · 2 pts29th1-3-0 · 2 pts30th
23 Dec 202518-14-4 · 40 pts19th18-13-5 · 41 pts16th
2 Apr 202646-22-8 · 100 pts5th39-26-10 · 88 pts11th

League rank after that night's games; a longer bar is a higher place. On 15 Oct 2025, Buffalo were 29th in the league and Ottawa 30th. By 2 Apr 2026 it was 5th and 11th.


Where the shots come from · last 5 meetings

Ottawa out-attempted Buffalo 195 to 129

Every attempt from the last meetings, both teams shooting right.

Buffalo Sabres

129 att · 74 on goal · 12 G · 16.2%
Crease5 att · 1 G
Slot55 att · 8 G
Wing53 att · 3 G
Point16 att · 0 G
Neutral zone0 att · 0 G

Ottawa Senators

195 att · 87 on goal · 10 G · 11.5%
Crease17 att · 4 G
Slot76 att · 6 G
Wing64 att · 0 G
Point30 att · 0 G
Neutral zone8 att · 0 G
GoalOn goalMissedBlocked

Expected goals

Buffalo and Ottawa are level on chances, last 10 games

Shot quality both ways: expected goals weigh every unblocked attempt by its chance of scoring. Finishing above zero means more goals than the chances.

BuffaloOttawa
3.53xG for per game2.95
2.17xG against per game3.41
62.0%xG share46.4%
−0.6FinishingGoals minus expected goals+1.1
−4.5GoaltendingExpected goals against minus goals allowed+2.2

This season: 3 games for Buffalo, 3 for Ottawa. Small sample: early-season xG moves a lot from night to night.

Every team’s xG →


Special teams

Power play and penalty kill, season and series

This season's rates first, then 2025-26 and the last meetings between the two. Power-play chances are counted from the penalty log with coincidental minors cancelled; faceoffs are each club's wins over draws taken.

All bars share one scale · 0–100%SeasonLast meetings

Buffalo

Small sample
Power play · 2026-270.0%
Power play · 2025-2619.5% · 21st
Power play · last 5 meetings—
Penalty kill · 2026-2766.7%
Penalty kill · 2025-2681.9% · 4th
Faceoffs · 2026-2750.6% · 91/180
Drawn · 2026-2710 (3.33/gm)
Drawn · last meetings0 (0.00/gm)
Shorthanded · 2026-279 (3.00/gm)
PP goals · last meetings0

Ottawa

Small sample
Power play · 2026-277.7%
Power play · 2025-2624.0% · 8th
Power play · last 5 meetings—
Penalty kill · 2026-2776.9%
Penalty kill · 2025-2675.7% · 29th
Faceoffs · 2026-2752.7% · 99/188
Drawn · 2026-2713 (4.33/gm)
Drawn · last meetings0 (0.00/gm)
Shorthanded · 2026-2713 (4.33/gm)
PP goals · last meetings0

Skaters

Skaters to watch

Each club's top three forwards and defencemen by points this season, with 2025-26 one tap away.

PlayerGPGAPP/GP
72Tage Thompson32241.33
86Noah Ostlund31231.00
22Jack Quinn32020.67
18Tim Stützle33362.00
22Michael Amadio32131.00
19Drake Batherson32131.00
Points leaders
PlayerGPGAPP/GP
25Owen Power31451.67
26Rasmus Dahlin31120.67
72Thomas Chabot31120.67
Defencemen stats

Goaltending

Who has stopped this matchup

Save percentage in the last meetings by goalie. Starters are confirmed on game day.

Expected startersAn estimate until the teams confirmEvery game tonight →

Expected starter after their game on 6 Mar: a back-to-back depends on who plays that night.

Expected starter after their game on 6 Mar: a back-to-back depends on who plays that night.

Buffalo crease

BUF · 2026-27 Starter estimate from 4 Mar

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen.7842 GP · 1-1-0 · GSAx −3.7
Colten Ellis.9001 GP · 1-0-0 · GSAx −0.2

No appearances against Ottawa in the last meetings.

Ottawa crease

OTT · 2026-27 Starter estimate from 4 Mar

Linus Ullmark.9492 GP · 2-0-0 · GSAx +3.4
Samuel Ersson.8862 GP · 0-1-0 · GSAx −0.9

No appearances against Buffalo in the last meetings.


Totals

Scoring rates point to about 6.4 goals

No total is posted yet: it arrives with the game-day prices. Until then, the scoring rates and the recent meetings set the range.

Goals in the last 5 meetings

2 Apr 20265 · BUF 1–4 OTT
23 Dec 20255 · BUF 3–2 OTT
15 Oct 202512 · OTT 4–8 BUF
1 Apr 20257 · BUF 5–2 OTT
25 Mar 20255 · OTT 2–3 BUF

Bar length is total goals, coloured by the winner.

Scoring rates

Team26-27 GF26-27 GA25-26 GF25-26 GA
Buffalo3.333.673.512.94
Ottawa3.332.673.393.00

Goals for and against per game. The estimate averages each team’s scoring with the other’s goals allowed, and leans on 2025-26 until a team has played 20 games.

Scoring rates suggest6.4Goals in this game
Last 5 meetings6.8Goals per game
Line—No total posted yet
Books at the line—With the game-day prices

Team news

12 on the injury lists

Buffalo · injuries

Alex LyonUpper BodyIRReturn10 Oct
Conor TimminsLower BodyIRReturn17 Oct
Jack RathboneUndisclosedIRReturn24 Oct
Jason ZuckerAbdomenIRReturn15 Oct
Josh DoanLower BodyDay-to-dayReturn8 Oct
Topias LeinonenLower BodyIRReturn10 Oct

Ottawa · injuries

Andre BurakovskyUpper BodyIRReturn10 Oct
Artem ZubKneeIRReturn10 Oct
Blake MontgomeryUndisclosedIRReturn8 Oct
Jake SandersonLower BodyOutReturn8 Oct
Kurtis MacDermidUpper BodyIRReturn31 Oct
Linus UllmarkUndisclosedOutReturn8 Oct
2 Oct · BUF

Loaned D Dennis Gilbert to Rochester (AHL).

1 Oct · BUF

Recalled D Dennis Gilbert from Rochester (AHL). Placed G Alex Lyon and D Olen Zellweger on injured reserve. Signed D Louis Crevier to a four-year contract. Transferred F Matthew Savoie to long-term injured reserve.

14 Sep · BUF

Signed C Noah Östlund to an eight-year contract.

6 Oct · OTT

Recalled G Marcus Johansson from Belleville (AHL). Assigned D Donovan Sebrango to Belleville.

5 Oct · OTT

Recalled D Donovan Sebrango from Belleville (AHL). Placed LW Andre Burakovsky on injured reserve.

2 Oct · OTT

Loaned D Hoyt Stanley to Belleville (AHL).

Injury report
#4Daxon RudolphRound 1 · Prince AlbertD
#20Ilia MorozovRound 1 · MiamiC
#124Olivers MurnieksRound 4 · Saint JohnC
#156Doman SzongothRound 5 · Kookoo Jr.C
Full draft
#25Jonas Lagerberg HoenRound 1 · Leksand Jr.RW
#32Jaxon CoverRound 1 · LondonRW
#72Adam NemecRound 3 · SudburyLW
#87Oscar HolmertzRound 3 · Linkoping Jr.C
Full draft

Updated after every final