Early look · NHL 2026-27

Toronto Maple Leafs at Carolina Hurricanes: game preview

TorontoMaple Leafs2026-27: 2-2-0 · 4 pts · 2025-26: 32-36-14 · 78 pts · 28that

CarolinaHurricanes2026-27: 2-1-1 · 5 pts · 2025-26: 53-22-7 · 113 pts · 2nd

Puck drop5 Mar · 7:00 PM ET

VenueLenovo Center

All-time meetings101 completed

BasisLast 5 meetings + 2025-26

The thesis

Thirty-five points apart last season

Toronto finished last season 28th in the league on 78 points. Carolina finished 2nd on 113.

Game-day prices arrive with the afternoon snapshot, about 4:30 PM ET on the day of the game.

Head-to-head

Meeting number 102

Across 101 completed games, Carolina lead the head-to-head 55-38-8.

All-time record55-38-8Carolina's record in the series

Meetings played101This is number 102

2025-26 series—

Last 53-2Toronto

Last 5 meetings

See all: Last 5 meetings →

DateResultShotsPower playWinner

20 Mar 2026CAR 4 – TOR 3 OT——CAR

4 Dec 2025TOR 5 – CAR 1——TOR

9 Nov 2025CAR 5 – TOR 4——CAR

13 Apr 2025TOR 4 – CAR 1——TOR

22 Feb 2025CAR 3 – TOR 6——TOR

Head-to-head finder

The table on each 2025-26 meeting night

DateTorontoCarolina

9 Nov 20258-7-1 · 17 pts19th11-4-0 · 22 pts3rd

4 Dec 202513-11-3 · 29 pts21st16-8-2 · 34 pts5th

20 Mar 202629-28-13 · 71 pts25th44-19-6 · 94 pts3rd

League rank after that night's games; a longer bar is a higher place. On 9 Nov 2025, Toronto were 19th in the league and Carolina 3rd. By 20 Mar 2026 it was 25th and 3rd.

Where the shots come from · last 5 meetings

Carolina out-attempted Toronto 245 to 117

Every attempt from the last meetings, both teams shooting right.

Toronto Maple Leafs

117 att · 70 on goal · 12 G · 17.1%

Crease14 att · 4 G

Slot47 att · 7 G

Wing36 att · 1 G

Point14 att · 0 G

Neutral zone6 att · 0 G

Carolina Hurricanes

245 att · 116 on goal · 10 G · 8.6%

Crease23 att · 1 G

Slot93 att · 5 G

Wing95 att · 3 G

Point32 att · 1 G

Neutral zone2 att · 0 G

GoalOn goalMissedBlocked

Expected goals

Carolina have created the better chances, last 10 games

Shot quality both ways: expected goals weigh every unblocked attempt by its chance of scoring. Finishing above zero means more goals than the chances.

TorontoCarolina

3.40xG for per game3.74

3.21xG against per game2.21

51.4%xG share62.9%

−2.6FinishingGoals minus expected goals−4.0

+1.9GoaltendingExpected goals against minus goals allowed−3.2

This season: 4 games for Toronto, 4 for Carolina. Small sample: early-season xG moves a lot from night to night.

Every team’s xG →

Special teams

Power play and penalty kill, season and series

This season's rates first, then 2025-26 and the last meetings between the two. Power-play chances are counted from the penalty log with coincidental minors cancelled; faceoffs are each club's wins over draws taken.

All bars share one scale · 0–100%SeasonLast meetings

Toronto

Small sample

Power play · 2026-2721.4%

Power play · 2025-2621.3% · 15th

Power play · last 5 meetings—

Penalty kill · 2026-2790.9%

Penalty kill · 2025-2681.2% · 8th

Faceoffs · 2026-2751.1% · 113/221

Drawn · 2026-2714 (3.50/gm)

Drawn · last meetings0 (0.00/gm)

Shorthanded · 2026-2711 (2.75/gm)

PP goals · last meetings0

Carolina

Small sample

Power play · 2026-2719.0%

Power play · 2025-2624.9% · 4th

Power play · last 5 meetings—

Penalty kill · 2026-2789.5%

Penalty kill · 2025-2680.5% · 11th

Faceoffs · 2026-2752.1% · 125/240

Drawn · 2026-2721 (5.25/gm)

Drawn · last meetings0 (0.00/gm)

Shorthanded · 2026-2719 (4.75/gm)

PP goals · last meetings0

Skaters

Skaters to watch

Each club's top three forwards and defencemen by points this season, with 2025-26 one tap away.

Forwards to watch

See all: Forwards to watch →

PlayerGPGAPP/GP

88William Nylander43361.50

34Auston Matthews42351.25

91John Tavares41230.75

20Sebastian Aho44371.75

37Andrei Svechnikov41341.00

53Jackson Blake40330.75

Points leaders

Defencemen to watch

See all: Defencemen to watch →

PlayerGPGAPP/GP

44Morgan Rielly40330.75

43Darren Raddysh40110.25

95Oliver Ekman-Larsson40000.00

4Shayne Gostisbehere41120.50

74Jaccob Slavin40220.50

5Jalen Chatfield40110.25

Defencemen stats

Goaltending

Who has stopped this matchup

Save percentage in the last meetings by goalie. Starters are confirmed on game day.

Expected startersAn estimate until the teams confirmEvery game tonight →

Toronto

Expected starter after their game on 3 Mar: a back-to-back depends on who plays that night.

Carolina

Expected starter after their game on 3 Mar: a back-to-back depends on who plays that night.

Toronto crease

TOR · 2026-27 Starter estimate from 2 Mar

Sergei Bobrovsky.8872 GP · 0-2-0 · GSAx +0.1

Anthony Stolarz.9042 GP · 2-0-0 · GSAx +0.6

No appearances against Carolina in the last meetings.

Carolina crease

CAR · 2026-27 Starter estimate from 2 Mar

Brandon Bussi.8513 GP · 1-1-1 · GSAx −3.7

Pyotr Kochetkov.8891 GP · 1-0-0 · GSAx +0.5

No appearances against Toronto in the last meetings.

Totals

Scoring rates point to about 6.4 goals

No total is posted yet: it arrives with the game-day prices. Until then, the scoring rates and the recent meetings set the range.

Goals in the last 5 meetings

20 Mar 20267 · CAR 4–3 TOR

4 Dec 20256 · TOR 5–1 CAR

9 Nov 20259 · CAR 5–4 TOR

13 Apr 20255 · TOR 4–1 CAR

22 Feb 20259 · CAR 3–6 TOR

Bar length is total goals, coloured by the winner.

Scoring rates

Team26-27 GF26-27 GA25-26 GF25-26 GA

Toronto2.752.753.093.65

Carolina2.753.003.612.93

Goals for and against per game. The estimate averages each team’s scoring with the other’s goals allowed, and leans on 2025-26 until a team has played 20 games.

Scoring rates suggest6.4Goals in this game

Last 5 meetings7.2Goals per game

Line—No total posted yet

Books at the line—With the game-day prices

Team news

7 on the injury lists

Toronto · injuries

Cade WebberElbowIRReturn31 Oct

Dakota JoshuaAbdomenIRReturn24 Oct

Elvis MerzlikinsShoulderIRReturn30 Mar

Max DomiBackIRReturn21 Nov

William VilleneuveKneeIRReturn31 Oct

Carolina · injuries

Alexander NikishinContract DisputeOutReturn10 Oct

Seth JarvisShoulderIRReturn24 Oct

Latest moves

See all: Latest moves →

5 Oct · TOR

Placed RW Nikita Grebenkin on injured reserve.

30 Sep · TOR

Moved C Max Domi from the non-roster list to long-term injured reserve.

29 Sep · TOR

Placed D Cade Webber on the injured non-roster list.

30 Sep · CAR

Placed G Cayden Primeau on waivers.

27 Sep · CAR

Placed C Seth Jarvis on the injured non-roster list. Placed LD Juuso Valimaki on waivers.

27 Sep · CAR

Placed C Seth Jarvis on the injured non-roster list. Placed D Juuso Valimaki on waivers.

Injury report

Toronto · 2026 draft

See all: Toronto · 2026 draft →

#1Gavin McKennaRound 1 · Penn StateLW

#60Alexander BileckiRound 2 · KitchenerD

#69Ethan MacKenzieRound 3 · EdmontonD

#73Zach OlsenRound 3 · SaskatoonRW

Full draft

Carolina · 2026 draft

See all: Carolina · 2026 draft →

#51William HakanssonRound 2 · LuleaD

#61Wiggo SorenssonRound 2 · Boro/vetlandaC

#68Zachary LansardRound 3 · ReginaRW

#105Michael BerchildRound 4 · Usa U-18LW

Full draft

Friday 5 March · the full slate

See all: Friday 5 March · the full slate →

CARThis game 7:00 PM ET

Updated after every final