Early look The full preview opens on Saturday 19 December, three days before puck drop, with the expected goalies, the latest team news and game-day prices. Until then this page shows the matchup as it stands.
Early look · NHL 2026-27

Toronto Maple Leafs at Detroit Red Wings: game preview

Puck drop22 Dec · 7:00 PM ET
VenueLittle Caesars Arena
All-time meetings781 completed
BasisLast 5 meetings + 2025-26
The thesis

Fourteen points apart last season

Toronto finished last season 28th in the league on 78 points. Detroit finished 16th on 92, and the 2025-26 season series went DET 4-0-0.

Game-day prices arrive with the afternoon snapshot, about 4:30 PM ET on the day of the game.

Head-to-head

Meeting number 782

Across 781 completed games, Toronto lead the head-to-head 394-353-34.

All-time record394-353-34Toronto's record in the series
Meetings played781This is number 782
2025-26 seriesDET 4-0-0
Last 54-1Detroit
DateResultShotsPower playWinner
21 Jan 2026DET 2 – TOR 1 OT——DET
28 Dec 2025TOR 2 – DET 3 OT——DET
13 Oct 2025DET 3 – TOR 2——DET
11 Oct 2025TOR 3 – DET 6——DET
17 Apr 2025DET 3 – TOR 4 OT——TOR
Head-to-head finder

The table on each 2025-26 meeting night

DateTorontoDetroit
11 Oct 20251-1-0 · 2 pts16th1-1-0 · 2 pts20th
13 Oct 20251-2-0 · 2 pts25th2-1-0 · 4 pts12th
28 Dec 202517-15-6 · 40 pts22nd23-14-3 · 49 pts5th
21 Jan 202624-17-9 · 57 pts14th31-16-4 · 66 pts4th

League rank after that night's games; a longer bar is a higher place. On 11 Oct 2025, Toronto were 16th in the league and Detroit 20th. By 21 Jan 2026 it was 14th and 4th.


Where the shots come from · last 5 meetings

Detroit out-attempted Toronto 252 to 242

Every attempt from the last meetings, both teams shooting right.

Toronto Maple Leafs

242 att · 121 on goal · 8 G · 6.6%
Crease16 att · 2 G
Slot95 att · 5 G
Wing92 att · 1 G
Point30 att · 0 G
Neutral zone9 att · 0 G

Detroit Red Wings

252 att · 127 on goal · 14 G · 11.0%
Crease12 att · 1 G
Slot93 att · 9 G
Wing90 att · 1 G
Point49 att · 1 G
Neutral zone8 att · 2 G
GoalOn goalMissedBlocked

Expected goals

Detroit have created the better chances, last 10 games

Shot quality both ways: expected goals weigh every unblocked attempt by its chance of scoring. Finishing above zero means more goals than the chances.

TorontoDetroit
3.40xG for per game3.23
3.21xG against per game2.85
51.4%xG share53.1%
−2.6FinishingGoals minus expected goals−2.7
+1.9GoaltendingExpected goals against minus goals allowed+0.6

This season: 4 games for Toronto, 3 for Detroit. Small sample: early-season xG moves a lot from night to night.

Every team’s xG →


Special teams

Power play and penalty kill, season and series

This season's rates first, then 2025-26 and the last meetings between the two. Power-play chances are counted from the penalty log with coincidental minors cancelled; faceoffs are each club's wins over draws taken.

All bars share one scale · 0–100%SeasonLast meetings

Toronto

Small sample
Power play · 2026-2721.4%
Power play · 2025-2621.3% · 15th
Power play · last 5 meetings—
Penalty kill · 2026-2790.9%
Penalty kill · 2025-2681.2% · 8th
Faceoffs · 2026-2751.1% · 113/221
Drawn · 2026-2714 (3.50/gm)
Drawn · last meetings0 (0.00/gm)
Shorthanded · 2026-2711 (2.75/gm)
PP goals · last meetings0

Detroit

Small sample
Power play · 2026-2725.0%
Power play · 2025-2622.6% · 12th
Power play · last 5 meetings—
Penalty kill · 2026-2761.5%
Penalty kill · 2025-2677.1% · 23rd
Faceoffs · 2026-2753.6% · 97/181
Drawn · 2026-2712 (4.00/gm)
Drawn · last meetings0 (0.00/gm)
Shorthanded · 2026-2713 (4.33/gm)
PP goals · last meetings0

Skaters

Skaters to watch

Each club's top three forwards and defencemen by points this season, with 2025-26 one tap away.

PlayerGPGAPP/GP
34Auston Matthews42351.25
91John Tavares41230.75
93Alex DeBrincat32241.33
23Lucas Raymond30331.00
Points leaders
PlayerGPGAPP/GP
44Morgan Rielly40330.75
43Darren Raddysh40110.25
72Justin Faulk31120.67
53Moritz Seider30110.33
Defencemen stats

Goaltending

Who has stopped this matchup

Save percentage in the last meetings by goalie. Starters are confirmed on game day.

Expected startersAn estimate until the teams confirmEvery game tonight →

Expected starter after their game on 21 Dec: a back-to-back depends on who plays that night.

Expected starter after their game on 20 Dec: a back-to-back depends on who plays that night.

Toronto crease

TOR · 2026-27 Starter estimate from 19 Dec

Sergei Bobrovsky.8872 GP · 0-2-0 · GSAx +0.1
Anthony Stolarz.9042 GP · 2-0-0 · GSAx +0.6

No appearances against Detroit in the last meetings.

Detroit crease

DET · 2026-27 Starter estimate from 19 Dec

John Gibson.9033 GP · 1-2-0 · GSAx +0.4

No appearances against Toronto in the last meetings.


Totals

Scoring rates point to about 6.2 goals

No total is posted yet: it arrives with the game-day prices. Until then, the scoring rates and the recent meetings set the range.

Goals in the last 5 meetings

21 Jan 20263 · DET 2–1 TOR
28 Dec 20255 · TOR 2–3 DET
13 Oct 20255 · DET 3–2 TOR
11 Oct 20259 · TOR 3–6 DET
17 Apr 20257 · DET 3–4 TOR

Bar length is total goals, coloured by the winner.

Scoring rates

Team26-27 GF26-27 GA25-26 GF25-26 GA
Toronto2.752.753.093.65
Detroit2.332.672.943.15

Goals for and against per game. The estimate averages each team’s scoring with the other’s goals allowed, and leans on 2025-26 until a team has played 20 games.

Scoring rates suggest6.2Goals in this game
Last 5 meetings5.8Goals per game
Line—No total posted yet
Books at the line—With the game-day prices

Team news

12 on the injury lists

Toronto · injuries

Cade WebberElbowIRReturn31 Oct
Dakota JoshuaAbdomenIRReturn24 Oct
Elvis MerzlikinsShoulderIRReturn30 Mar
Max DomiBackIRReturn21 Nov
William VilleneuveKneeIRReturn31 Oct

Detroit · injuries

Carter BearUpper BodyIRReturn10 Oct
Chase StillmanUndisclosedIRReturn9 Oct
J.T. CompherUndisclosedOutReturn9 Oct
Jacob Bernard-DockerUpper BodyIRReturn9 Oct
Marco KasperUpper BodyIRReturn20 Oct
Mason AppletonUndisclosedIRReturn13 Oct
Simon EdvinssonContract DisputeOutReturn10 Oct
5 Oct · TOR

Placed RW Nikita Grebenkin on injured reserve.

30 Sep · TOR

Moved C Max Domi from the non-roster list to long-term injured reserve.

29 Sep · TOR

Placed D Cade Webber on the injured non-roster list.

2 Oct · DET

Placed F Dylan Larkin on the non-roster injured reserve.

25 Sep · DET

Assigned Fs Ondrej Becher, Cameron Butler, Sheldon Dries, Noah Dower Nilsson, Dylan James, Jesse Kiiskinen, John Leonard, Sutter Muzzatti, Theo Rochette, Dominik Shine and Wilmer Skoog, Ds Ronnie Attard, Jacob Bryson, Shai Buium and William Lagesson and Gs Trey Augustine and Michal Postava to Grand Rapids (AHL).

20 Aug 2026 · DET

Acquired F Sutter Muzzatti from Nashville Predators for future considerations.

Injury report
#1Gavin McKennaRound 1 · Penn StateLW
#60Alexander BileckiRound 2 · KitchenerD
#69Ethan MacKenzieRound 3 · EdmontonD
#73Zach OlsenRound 3 · SaskatoonRW
Full draft
#23Jeffrey (JP) HurlbertRound 1 · KamloopsLW
#47Victor PlanteRound 2 · Usa U-18LW
#79Michal OrsulakRound 3 · Prince AlbertG
#108Adam LevacRound 4 · PeterboroughC
Full draft

Updated after every final